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95/04/13

世界是平的

- 把握這個趨勢,在21世紀才有競爭

The World is Flat

演講影片與字幕


# Friedman 於麻省理工學院演講影片

# 觀賞影片時可參閱以下之中英文字幕:

影片中文字幕:


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今天,我們歡迎來到麻省理工學院的來賓是

 

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Thomas Friedman

 

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諸位都知道他是紐約時報的國際事務專欄作者

 

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我必須先承認

 

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他的作品是少數我經常看的專欄

 

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內容總是發人深省,即使我不是百分之百同意

 

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但就像我剛剛告訴他的一樣,

 

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他的標題是世界上最有趣的

 

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任何能夠寫出獨舞、或是上週的花椰菜這種標題的人

 

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絕對都讓你很難忘記

 

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椰菜仔等等......或許花椰菜還是比較好吧!

 

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我想各位也都知道,他獲得過三次普利茲獎

 

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以及三本我們都很熟知的書

 

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《從貝魯特到耶路撒冷》

 

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《凌志與橄欖樹》,我記得Alex Darvel幾年前介紹我看

 

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更接近的則是《經度與緯度》

 

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他是我們校區附近Brandeis大學的地中海研究科系畢業生

 

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稍後他又在牛津大學獲得中東研究的碩士學位

 

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他今日來此的目的,

 

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我說實話好了

 

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某天深夜,我在別地某處的飯店

 

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就像我平常在飯店所做的一樣,躺在床上亂轉電視

 

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我剛好看到Charle Rose秀的最後幾分鐘

 

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Charlie正在訪問他,兩人討論相當精采

 

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他正在講著那些夷平機制,我則是靜靜的聽著

 

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突然之間,我驚訝的發現到...

 

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這是一個真正重要、有力的公眾聲音

 

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而且是十分關鍵的

 

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提到的都是對我們在麻省理工學院的成員們極為重要的事情

 

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諸如開放的價值

 

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以及科技與科學的重要性

 

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以及為了國家的未來,讓年輕男女可以接受這些領域的教育

 

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當然,除此之外

 

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當然,還有最基礎的,最基本的假設

 

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讓我們可以更清楚的瞭解,世界上目前許多最重要的趨勢

 

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當然,他會討論的主題是他的新書:《世界是平的》

 

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我想現在應該是它在紐約時報暢銷排行榜上的第二週

 

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稍後,他將為我們演講

 

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演講後將會接受提問

 

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我們會在五點結束

 

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之後,從五點十五分開始,

 

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將會有個歡迎活動,我不知道我們準備多少人份的食物

 

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簽書活動則會在樓下的Bush教室,10-105教室

 

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Tom,歡迎來到麻省理工學院

 

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謝謝各位!

 

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Chuck,很感謝你邀請我,這是我的榮幸

 

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我今天已經覺得獲益良多了

 

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我很期待接下來的對話

 

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也非常感謝你把我的書名說對了

 

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我經常被介紹成《貝魯特到黎巴嫩》的作者

 

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也很常有人說《凌志和棕櫚樹》

 

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還有《經度和態度》,這絕對不是Jimmy Buffet的歌

 

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也多謝你提到我的新書本週在紐時暢銷排行榜上第一名

 

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終於贏過了珍芳達的健身書

 

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因為如果銷售狀況還不夠好,

我準備把書名改為《平坦世界,平坦小腹》

 

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我終於成功啦!至少我自己這麼認為

 

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我接下來三十分鐘將會討論這本書的起源

 

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撰寫它意外的過程

 

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給各位核心概念的說明,並期待跟各位的對話

 

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這本書真的是個意外

 

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我的專欄的讀者知道我在1995年一月成為專欄作者

 

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19952001910日之間

 

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我的專欄內容都在我稱為凌志汽車議題,

和橄欖樹議題之間擺盪

 

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貿易、科技、金融的議題

 

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地緣政治和身份衝突

 

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我一直在這兩個議題之間擺盪,直到911事件

 

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當那天來臨時,我把凌志這類的故事丟到一邊

 

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花更多的時間探討橄欖樹的議題

 

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我在911之後的三年幾乎都在回教世界旅行

 

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試著瞭解911的根源,報導阿富汗以及伊拉克的戰爭

 

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我一直處在這些議題中,

直到20041月,大約16個月之前

 

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我當時在替探索頻道作節目,其中包括911根源的探討

 

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我們也作了一個關於

以色列在約但河西岸建立圍牆的故事

 

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20041月,我們正和探索頻道及紐時的成員坐在一起

 

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試著討論下一部紀錄片的主題是什麼

 

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在那時,

美國在世界上的地位和失去的影響力是熱門議題

 

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所以我想到了一個點子,我們為何不去...

 

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去全世界各地的電話客服中心

 

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訪問那些整天模仿美國人的年輕外國人

 

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問問他們對美國人的意見

 

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我覺得這就有點像是有趣的雙重鏡像

 

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事實上,我們真的已經在規劃這影片的預算了

 

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只是,正好某位民主黨總統候選人John Kerry

 

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正大張旗鼓的抨擊那些「叛國總裁」將工作機會外包

(譯註Benedict Arnold是美國革命初期著名的叛國保皇派)

 

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因此,突然間,外包這個議題爆炸性的登上世界舞台

 

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登上了《財富》、《富比士》、《商業週刊》、

《紐約時報》、《華爾街日報》封面或頭版

 

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所以,我說暫停,等等

 

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為什麼我們不直接去邦加羅爾,印度的外包首都

 

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也是印度的矽谷,來作一個稱為《外包的另一端》的報導

 

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讓我們可以從最底層看看這個現象

 

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於是我們就這麼做了

 

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所以,在2004215日,我和探索頻道的

工作人員一起往邦加羅爾出發

 

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在十一天左右的時間內,我們拍了大概六十個小時的訪談

 

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在那總長六十個小時的訪談中,我越來越覺得不舒服

 

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當然,不是因為食物的關係

 

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那是每做一次訪談,我就有的印象

 

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在我矇然不知的時候

 

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當我在採訪因911而起的戰爭時

 

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在這個全球化的故事中,發生了真正重大的事件

 

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我竟然完全沒注意到

 

影片英文字幕:


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Today, to welcome to MIT

 

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Thomas Friedman

 

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Who, as you know, is the foreigner affair columnist for the New York Times.

 

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I will admit up front

 

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that it’s one of the few columns I read with great regularity,

 

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finding the content always stimulating, whether or not I agree with one hundred percent.

 

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But, as I told him earlier today,

 

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his titles are the best in the world.

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Anybody who could write Dancing Alone, or Last Week Broccoli,

 

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all of which enables you to remember Brusell Sprout.

 

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Whatever, broccoli would be better!

 

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I think, as you know, he has won 3 Pulitzer prizes,

 

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3 books that all of us know very well:

 

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“From Beirut to Jerusalem”,

 

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The Lexus and the Olive Tree, which I remember Alex Darvel always introduce me to a couple years ago,

 

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little more recently, Longitudes and Latitudes.

 

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He’s a graduate of our neighboring institution, Brandeis University in Mediterranean studies,

 

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and then got a master degree in Middle East studies at Oxford University.

 

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So, the reason he’s here today,

 

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I’m gonna tell you the truth.

 

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I was in a hotel somewhere rather late at night,

 

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doing what I usually do in hotel: lying in bed, flipping through channels,

 

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and I came across the last few minutes of the Charlie Rose Show

 

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and Charlie was interviewing Tom. They are having a great discussion.

 

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He’s there talking about all his flatteners. I’m listening

 

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and, all a sudden, I recognized with a startle

 

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that here is a really important, powerful public voice,

 

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in a very articulate manner,

 

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speaking the things that are very important to us here at MIT,

 

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things such as the values of openness,

 

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and things such as the importance of science and technology.

 

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And the importance of young men and  women being educated in these fields, to the future of this country.

 

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In addition, of course,

 

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to the fundamental hypothesis, a fundamental notion

 

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of helping us to understand a little more clearly, some of the most important trends going on in the world.

 

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He was, of course, discussing his new book, The World Is Flat,

 

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which is in its second week, I guess, number 1 on the New York bestseller list.

 

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So, in just a moment,      Tom is going to address us.

 

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He is going to take a little Q&A at the end of that.

 

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We’ll cut the things off just about 5’o clock

 

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but there after starting at 5:15,

 

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there will be a reception.  I don’t know how many people’s food was planned for,

 

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and the book signing downstairs in the Bush room, 10-105.

 

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Tom. welcome to MIT!

 

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(Friedman)Thank you very much, thank you.

 

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Chuck, thank you very much for having me.  It’s a treat and an honor to be here.

 

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I had an enormously stimulating day already.

 

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So, I look forward to this conversation.

 

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Thank you also for giving my book titles right.

 

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You know, I’ve often been introduced to author of From Beirut to Lebanon,

 

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The Lexus and the Palm Tree, that’s a popular one,

 

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And Latitudes and Attitudes. It’s not a Jimmy Buffett’s song.

 

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And thank you also for noting that my book ascended to number 1 this week in the New York Times bestsellers list.

 

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I finally made ahead of Jane Fonda,

 

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Because I was going to retitle my book Flat World, Flat Abs if I did not grow up so.

 

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But I made it, so.

 

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I thought I’ll talk for the next 30 minutes or so, of just the origins of this book,

 

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the accidental way it came about,

 

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and give you a sense of the core piece and really look forward to a dialog.

 

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This book really was an accident.

 

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For those of you who read my column know that really, I became the front columnist in January 1995

 

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Between 1995 to Sep 10th 2001,

 

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my column really oscillated between what I would call Lexus issues and Olive Tree issues

 

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issues about trades, technology, finance,

 

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Many issues about geopolitics and ethnic conflicts.

 

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And I was really in that kind of oscillation mode, I say, right up until September 11.

 

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When I read of what happened that day, I really dropped the whole Lexus story like a stone

 

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and went off and cover the Olive tree wars.

 

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I really spent 3 years after 911, traveling almost exclusively in the area of Muslim world,

 

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trying to understand the roots of 911, and covering the war in Afghanistan and in Iraq,

 

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and I was really in that mode right up to last January, January of 2004, about 16 months ago,

 

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when I started doing documentary recently for the Discovery channel. We’ve done one on the roots of 911.

 

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We did one on the wall that Israel built in the West Bank.

 

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And in January of 2004, we’re sitting around with our Discovery-New York Times team,

 

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trying to figure out what to do our next documentary on.

 

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And at the time, the issue of America’s standing in the world; the America’s low stand in the world was a very hot issue.

 

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And so I had this idea, I said, “Why don’t we…

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why don’t we go to call centers all over the world

 

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and interview young people who spend their days imitating Americans

 

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on what they think of America?”

 

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I thought I make a fun kind, almost double mirror,

 

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and we are literarily budgeting that show

 

83

00:06:10,137 --> 00:06:14,007

when a certain presidential democratic hopeful named John Kerry

 

84

00:06:14,042 --> 00:06:20,008

came on with his blast against Benedict Arnold executives who outsource.

 

85

00:06:20,043 --> 00:06:26,304

Suddenly, it recalls the whole issue of outsource. It just exploded onto the world stage,

 

86

00:06:26,339 --> 00:06:32,201

and onto the front page of the Business Week, on Fortune, on Forbes, and the New York Times, and on the Wall street Journal.

 

87

00:06:32,236 --> 00:06:34,537

So, I said, you know, “Time out.

 

88

00:06:34,572 --> 00:06:38,978

Why don’t we just go to Bangalore, the outsourcing capital of India

 

89

00:06:39,013 --> 00:06:45,015

and the Silicon Valley of India, and do a documentary called ‘The Other Side of Outsourcing’

 

90

00:06:45,050 --> 00:06:48,759

where we look at these phenomena from the ground up?”

 

91

00:06:48,794 --> 00:06:51,102

And that’s what we did.

 

92

00:06:51,137 --> 00:06:58,438

And so on February 15th of 2004, I set off to Bangalore with our Discovery crew

 

93

00:06:58,473 --> 00:07:04,747

and we shot about 60 hours of interviews, in a course of 10 to 11 days.

 

94

00:07:04,782 --> 00:07:13,175

And over the course of those 60 hours of interviews, I got progressively sicker and sicker.

 

95

00:07:13,210 --> 00:07:15,079

It was not the food.

 

96

00:07:17,151 --> 00:07:21,265

It was a sense I got with each passing interview,

 

97

00:07:21,300 --> 00:07:24,872

that while I had been sleeping,

 

98

00:07:24,907 --> 00:07:28,842

while I had been off covering the 911 wars,

 

99

00:07:28,877 --> 00:07:34,204

something really big had happened, in this globalization story.

 

100

00:07:34,239 --> 00:07:37,267

And I had completely missed it.

 

 

101

00:07:38,287 --> 00:07:45,902

這個感覺發生在訪談想要從邦加羅爾幫我報稅的創業家時

 

102

00:07:45,937 --> 00:07:57,575

還有想在邦加羅爾幫我寫新軟體、

幫我看X光片、幫我追蹤Delta航空弄丟行李的人

 

103

00:07:57,610 --> 00:08:05,814

當我矇懂沈睡時,有大事發生了,但我卻完全無法解釋

 

104

00:08:05,849 --> 00:08:09,138

事實上,我真希望我可以放那些訪談的影片給各位看

 

105

00:08:09,173 --> 00:08:18,409

你坐在Mphasis公司的負責人Jerry Rao對面,

他們的集團去年在印度幫四十萬美國人退稅

 

106

00:08:18,444 --> 00:08:23,817

我問他:Jerry,發生了什麼事情,我一定錯過了什麼

 

107

00:08:23,852 --> 00:08:25,881

你們怎麼可能這麼做呢?

 

108

00:08:25,916 --> 00:08:28,784

到底發生了什麼事情?

 

109

00:08:28,819 --> 00:08:38,854

我們作的最後一個訪談是印度幾個先進科技公司

之一的Infosys的總裁,我的朋友Nandan Nilekani

 

110

00:08:38,889 --> 00:08:42,708

Nandan和我正坐在他辦公室外面的沙發上,等著拍攝工作開始

 

111

00:08:42,743 --> 00:08:44,462

我們有點像在正式來之前的彩排訪問

 

112

00:08:44,497 --> 00:08:47,350

在那時,他說:Tom,我得告訴你

 

113

00:08:47,385 --> 00:08:51,757

全世界的經濟舞台正在被夷平

 

114

00:08:51,792 --> 00:08:55,748

世界的經濟舞台正被夷平

 

115

00:08:55,783 --> 00:08:59,454

而你們這些美國人並沒做好準備

 

116

00:08:59,489 --> 00:09:02,850

喔,我趕忙在我的小筆記本上寫下這句話

 

117

00:09:02,885 --> 00:09:06,792

全世界的經濟舞台正在被夷平

 

118

00:09:06,827 --> 00:09:12,914

訪談過後,我坐上我的車,回到飯店

 

119

00:09:12,949 --> 00:09:18,692

在那整段旅程中,我的腦中一直在想Nandan所說的話

 

120

00:09:18,727 --> 00:09:30,540

最後,我終於明白

Nandan所說的意思是全球的經濟舞台已經變得平坦了

 

121

00:09:32,535 --> 00:09:35,795

於是,於是我就想到要寫這本書

 

122

00:09:35,830 --> 00:09:40,686

我告訴自己:天哪,他說的是這個世界是平坦的!

 

123

00:09:40,721 --> 00:09:49,596

他告訴我這世界是平坦的,

而且他認為這是人類發展史上的一大突破

 

124

00:09:49,631 --> 00:09:53,346

我們讓世界變平了!

 

125

00:09:53,381 --> 00:09:56,184

當我回到飯店,我馬上打給我老婆

 

126

00:09:56,219 --> 00:10:00,063

我當時就這麼說:「我要寫一本叫做世界是平的書。」

 

127

00:10:02,133 --> 00:10:04,857

她以為我徹徹底底的瘋了

 

128

00:10:04,892 --> 00:10:11,998

但我回到家,我通知紐約時報的發行人、

通知我的老闆,版面編輯Gail Collins

 

129

00:10:12,033 --> 00:10:13,862

各位,我得要放假

 

130

00:10:13,897 --> 00:10:16,277

我得要馬上休假

 

131

00:10:16,312 --> 00:10:23,259

我的軟體需要更新

我分析國際事務的架構需要更新

 

132

00:10:23,294 --> 00:10:27,278

我看到的事情我不能理解、無法分析

 

133

00:10:27,313 --> 00:10:33,209

如果我不能馬上放假,

我可能會替紐時寫出非常蠢的文章

 

134

00:10:36,824 --> 00:10:38,890

我必須承認,這是爭取休假的好方法

 

135

00:10:40,858 --> 00:10:41,851

非常難以拒絕

 

136

00:10:43,531 --> 00:10:45,480

所以我們設法安排妥當

 

137

00:10:45,515 --> 00:10:47,446

最後我獲得了三個月的休假

 

138

00:10:49,182 --> 00:10:51,860

基本上,在那段時間中

 

139

00:10:51,895 --> 00:10:55,247

315號到1215號之間

(譯註:講者口誤?)

 

140

00:10:55,282 --> 00:10:59,203

我像是發瘋、著魔一般的寫作

 

141

00:10:59,238 --> 00:11:00,802

我寫了這本書

 

142

00:11:01,731 --> 00:11:05,783

讓我先很快的解說一下前三個章節

 

143

00:11:06,967 --> 00:11:11,273

第一章的名稱我想非常適當,就叫做:當你沈睡時

 

144

00:11:11,308 --> 00:11:20,671

該章節一開始的內容是:哥倫布在1492出航

是要去找尋通往印度的捷徑

 

145

00:11:20,706 --> 00:11:23,661

哥倫布在1492年要去的就是那個地方

 

146

00:11:23,696 --> 00:11:27,127

當年的回教勢力阻擋了陸上的交通

 

147

00:11:27,162 --> 00:11:32,324

哥倫布不想要經過好望角,所以他往西航行

 

148

00:11:32,359 --> 00:11:34,815

他率領三艘船NinaPintaSanta Maria

 

149

00:11:34,850 --> 00:11:36,568

他並未找到印度

 

150

00:11:36,603 --> 00:11:42,785

但他稱呼所遇到的人為Indians,至今

我們也跟著叫他們印地安人

 

151

00:11:42,820 --> 00:11:47,450

然後他回到家,告訴老婆說,親愛的,我意外發現地球是圓的

 

152

00:11:47,485 --> 00:11:51,669

512年之後,我出發前往印度

 

153

00:11:51,704 --> 00:11:54,896

我很清楚我要去哪裡

 

154

00:11:54,931 --> 00:11:57,048

我往東飛

 

155

00:11:57,083 --> 00:11:59,818

我坐德航的商務艙

 

156

00:11:59,853 --> 00:12:03,997

我的座位上還有GPS導航系統,告訴我身在何方

 

157

00:12:04,032 --> 00:12:09,175

但我回家時卻告訴妻子:親愛的,我意外發現世界是平的

 

158

00:12:10,113 --> 00:12:13,993

第一章基本上就是描述我在印度的所有遭遇

 

159

00:12:14,028 --> 00:12:17,658

我並且因此獲得了這個結論

 

160

00:12:17,693 --> 00:12:21,240

但我跟哥倫布不同,我繼續往東走

 

161

00:12:21,275 --> 00:12:24,246

接著我到了中國大連

 

162

00:12:24,281 --> 00:12:27,285

接受日本外包的重要據點

 

163

00:12:27,320 --> 00:12:29,512

這是中國東北的一個重要城市

 

164

00:12:29,547 --> 00:12:36,090

有數以萬計的會說日文的中國人

 

165

00:12:36,125 --> 00:12:49,209

現在替日本跨國大企業、或原先以東京為據點的

美國跨國大企業負責後端管理、撰寫程式、處理商業流程

 

166

00:12:49,244 --> 00:12:54,350

為了避免諸位搞混我說的話,讓我重複一遍

 

167

00:12:54,385 --> 00:12:56,652

最近中國的頭條新聞是

 

168

00:12:56,687 --> 00:13:00,905

數以萬計通日語的中國人

 

169

00:13:00,940 --> 00:13:08,211

今日正從大連處理日本跨國大企業的後端管理

 

170

00:13:08,246 --> 00:13:13,449

因此,當地許多大學要求你必須學兩年的日文

 

171

00:13:13,484 --> 00:13:19,557

以便能夠進入這個不斷膨脹的日本外包市場

 

172

00:13:20,701 --> 00:13:24,350

然後我繼續往東走,我去了科羅拉多州

 

173

00:13:24,385 --> 00:13:27,798

我是真的往東走喔

 

174

00:13:28,921 --> 00:13:32,766

有一天我打給Jet Blue(航空公司)來預定機票

 

175

00:13:32,801 --> 00:13:34,809

事實上我是在作一些研究

 

176

00:13:34,844 --> 00:13:40,394

於是有一個聲音聽起來很年長,很友善的女性接了電話

 

177

00:13:40,429 --> 00:13:44,114

我問她Jet Blue是否有從Washington飛到Atlanta

 

178

00:13:44,149 --> 00:13:46,021

她說,抱歉,沒有

 

179

00:13:46,056 --> 00:13:50,290

最後我說了,女士,我可以請教您的大名嗎?

 

180

00:13:50,325 --> 00:13:52,479

她說,我叫做Betty

 

181

00:13:52,514 --> 00:13:56,518

我問:Betty,我可否知道您現在人在哪裡?

 

182

00:13:56,553 --> 00:14:02,905

她說:親愛的,我正穿著拖鞋在臥室,

看著美麗的猶他州鹽湖城景色

 

183

00:14:02,940 --> 00:14:08,025

因為Jet Blue設計了一個完整的家中客服系統

 

184

00:14:08,060 --> 00:14:11,027

Jet Blue是由一名成功的摩門教徒David Neeleman所創辦

 

185

00:14:11,062 --> 00:14:15,413

他相信如果配偶之一在家工作,家庭會凝聚的更緊密

 

186

00:14:15,448 --> 00:14:19,121

因此,他創造了一個徹底的在家客服系統

 

187

00:14:19,156 --> 00:14:24,078

主要是由猶他州鹽湖城的退休人員和家庭主婦擔任

 

188

00:14:24,113 --> 00:14:28,604

所以,如果你打電話給Jet Blue訂機票,

可能會是Betty在臥室接電話

 

189

00:14:28,639 --> 00:14:34,941

可能是Bob在地下室接電話,可能是Sue在浴缸旁拿著筆記型電腦

 

190

00:14:34,976 --> 00:14:38,733

但就是這些人在幫你們作Jet Blue的機票預訂

 

191

00:14:38,768 --> 00:14:41,452

然後我繼續往東走

 

192

00:14:41,487 --> 00:14:44,880

我去了Washington,有天拿起了華盛頓郵報

 

193

00:14:44,915 --> 00:14:48,935

他們報導了一個麥當勞的驚人初期計畫

 

194

00:14:48,970 --> 00:14:54,091

如果你到某幾個麥當勞的得來速窗口

 

195

00:14:54,126 --> 00:14:57,663

你替孩子訂了六個大麥克漢堡、六杯奶昔和十八個薯條

 

196

00:14:57,698 --> 00:15:04,667

你事實上並不是在和那個當地麥當勞的店員講話,

你是和Colorado Spring的客服中心講話

 

197

00:15:04,702 --> 00:15:08,555

他們負責接受你點餐,把你的臉拍下來

 

198

00:15:08,590 --> 00:15:13,339

然後把你的照片和訂單傳回當地的麥當勞

 

199

00:15:13,374 --> 00:15:17,790

當你開到下一個取餐窗口時,

你的照片和訂單就會被比對並處理

 

200

00:15:17,825 --> 00:15:21,192

所以,世界的確在被越變越平

 

101

00:07:38,287 --> 00:07:45,902

That thought hit me somewhere between the interview with the Indian entrepreneur who wanted to do my taxes from Bangalore,

 

102

00:07:45,937 --> 00:07:57,575

and the one who wanted to write my new software from Bangalore, and the one who want to read my X-rays from Bangalore, and the ones who want to trace my lost luggage on Delta Airlines from Bangalore,

 

103

00:07:57,610 --> 00:08:05,814

that while I had been sleeping, something really big had happened, and I couldn’t explain it.

 

104

00:08:05,849 --> 00:08:09,138

In fact, I wish I could show you the outtakes of the interviews.

 

105

00:08:09,173 --> 00:08:18,409

You’d be sitting across the table from Jerry Rao, who owns a company called Mphasis.  It’s a part of a group that done 400,000 American tax returns from India last year.

 

106

00:08:18,444 --> 00:08:23,817

And I say to him, “Jerry, what happened? I missed something!

 

107

00:08:23,852 --> 00:08:25,881

How can you be doing this?

 

108

00:08:25,916 --> 00:08:28,784

What happened?”

 

109

00:08:28,819 --> 00:08:38,854

Well,  the last interview we did was with a friend of mine, Nandan Nilekani, who headed Infosys, the CEO of Infosys, which is one of the premier Indian high tech companies.

 

110

00:08:38,889 --> 00:08:42,708

Nandan and I were sitting on the couch outside his office before the filming began.

 

111

00:08:42,743 --> 00:08:44,462

I was doing a kind of pre-interview with him.

 

112

00:08:44,497 --> 00:08:47,350

And one point he said to me: Tom, I’ve got to tell you.

 

113

00:08:47,385 --> 00:08:51,757

The global economic playing field is being leveled.

 

114

00:08:51,792 --> 00:08:55,748

The global economic playing field is being leveled

 

115

00:08:55,783 --> 00:08:59,454

and you Americans are not ready.”

 

116

00:08:59,489 --> 00:09:02,850

Oh, I wrote that down in my little notebook:

 

117

00:09:02,885 --> 00:09:06,792

The global economic playing field is being leveled.

 

118

00:09:06,827 --> 00:09:12,914

Well, after the interview I got in my jeep, and went back to my hotel.

 

119

00:09:12,949 --> 00:09:18,692

The whole time back in that ride, I kept rolling over in my head what Nandan had said:

 

120

00:09:18,727 --> 00:09:30,540

“The global economic playing field is being leveled.” And finally it occurred to me what Nandan was saying was that the global economic playing field is being flattened.

 

121

00:09:32,535 --> 00:09:35,795

And then, then I thought of this book.

 

122

00:09:35,830 --> 00:09:40,686

I said to myself, “Oh, my God, he’s telling me the world is flat.

 

123

00:09:40,721 --> 00:09:49,596

He’s telling me the world is flat, and he’s citing this as a great achievement in human development

 

124

00:09:49,631 --> 00:09:53,346

that we’ve made the world flat.”

 

125

00:09:53,381 --> 00:09:56,184

Well, when I went back to my hotel, I called my wife.

 

126

00:09:56,219 --> 00:10:00,063

This is exactly how it happened. I said: Honey, I’m gonna write a book called ‘The World Is Flat’.

 

127

00:10:02,133 --> 00:10:04,857

She thought I was stark raving mad.

 

128

00:10:04,892 --> 00:10:11,998

But I came home. I called the publisher in New York Times, and my boss Gail Collins, the editor of page.

 

129

00:10:12,033 --> 00:10:13,862

“Gail, I’ve gotta go on leave.

 

00:10:13,897 --> 00:10:16,277

I’ve gotta go on leave immediately

 

131

00:10:16,312 --> 00:10:23,259

because my software needs updating.

The framework through which I'm analyzing foreign affairs needs updating.

 

132

00:10:23,294 --> 00:10:27,278

I am seeing things out there, I cannot understand and explain.

 

133

00:10:27,313 --> 00:10:33,209

If I don't go on leave immediately, I’m gonna write something really stupid in the New York Times.”

 

134

00:10:36,824 --> 00:10:38,890

It's a great way to get a leave, I have to say.

 

135

00:10:40,858 --> 00:10:41,851

Very hard to say no.

 

136

00:10:43,531 --> 00:10:45,480

So we worked it out basically

 

137

00:10:45,515 --> 00:10:47,446

and I eventually got three months’ leave.

 

138

00:10:49,182 --> 00:10:51,860

And during that time, basically,

 

139

00:10:51,895 --> 00:10:55,247

between March 15th and December 15th,

 

140

00:10:55,282 --> 00:10:59,203

in a complete frenzy, obsession, really,

 

141

00:10:59,238 --> 00:11:00,802

I wrote this book.

 

142

00:11:01,731 --> 00:11:05,783

Let me just go through the first three chapters very quickly

 

143

00:11:06,967 --> 00:11:11,273

The first chapter is called, I think it appropriately enough: “While You Were Sleeping”.

 

144

00:11:11,308 --> 00:11:20,671

And I begin the book by noting that Christopher Columbus set sail in 1492 looking for a shorter route to India

 

145

00:11:20,706 --> 00:11:23,661

That's where Columbus was going in 1492.

 

146

00:11:23,696 --> 00:11:27,127

There the Muslim powers of that day had blocked the overland routes,

 

147

00:11:27,162 --> 00:11:32,324

and he didn't want to go around the Horn of Africa, so Columbus sailed west.

 

148

00:11:32,359 --> 00:11:34,815

He had the Nina, the Pinta, the Santa Maria.

 

149

00:11:34,850 --> 00:11:36,568

He never did find India,

 

150

00:11:36,603 --> 00:11:42,785

but he called the people he ran into Indians, and we call them that till this day.

 

151

00:11:42,820 --> 00:11:47,450

And he came home and told his wife, "Honey, I've accidentally discovered the world is round."

 

152

00:11:47,485 --> 00:11:51,669

I set off for India 512 years later.

 

153

00:11:51,704 --> 00:11:54,896

I knew just which direction I was going.

 

154

00:11:54,931 --> 00:11:57,048

I sailed east.

 

155

00:11:57,083 --> 00:11:59,818

I had Lufthansa business class

 

156

00:11:59,853 --> 00:12:03,997

and a GPS satellite that popped up in my seat told me exactly where I was,

 

157

00:12:04,032 --> 00:12:09,175

and I came home and told my wife, "Honey, I've accidentally discovered the world is flat."

 

158

00:12:10,113 --> 00:12:13,993

And the first chapter really goes through all the encounters I had in India

 

159

00:12:14,028 --> 00:12:17,658

that led me to this conclusion.

 

160

00:12:17,693 --> 00:12:21,240

But unlike Columbus, I kept going east.

 

161

00:12:21,275 --> 00:12:24,246

I next went to Dalian in China,

 

162

00:12:24,281 --> 00:12:27,285

the capital of outsourcing for Japan.

 

163

00:12:27,320 --> 00:12:29,512

This town, a major town in northeast China

 

164

00:12:29,547 --> 00:12:36,090

where thousands upon thousands of Japanese-speaking Chinese

 

165

00:12:36,125 --> 00:12:49,209

are now running the backrooms, writing the software and doing the business processing for major Japanese multinationals and major American multinationals formerly based in Tokyo.

 

166

00:12:49,244 --> 00:12:54,350

Let me repeat that, in case you misheard me, ok?

 

167

00:12:54,385 --> 00:12:56,652

…in light of the recent headlines in China.

 

168

00:12:56,687 --> 00:13:00,905

Tens of thousands of Japanese-speaking Chinese

 

169

00:13:00,940 --> 00:13:08,211

are today running the backrooms of major Japanese multinationals from Dalian

 

170

00:13:08,246 --> 00:13:13,449

where it is now a requirement in many universities that you study two years of Japanese

 

171

00:13:13,484 --> 00:13:19,557

in order to have access to this incredibly burgeoning market of outsourcing from Japan.

 

172

00:13:20,701 --> 00:13:24,350

And then I kept going east, and I went to Colorado.

 

173

00:13:24,385 --> 00:13:27,798

And I really went east.

 

174

00:13:28,921 --> 00:13:32,766

And I called Jet Blue one day to make an airline reservation.

 

175

00:13:32,801 --> 00:13:34,809

I was really doing a little bit of research.

 

176

00:13:34,844 --> 00:13:40,394

And I got a rather elderly sounding woman on the phone. She was very friendly

 

177

00:13:40,429 --> 00:13:44,114

and I asked her if Jet Blue flew from Washington to Atlanta.

 

178

00:13:44,149 --> 00:13:46,021

She said, no, they didn't.

 

179

00:13:46,056 --> 00:13:50,290

Finally I said, "Madam, could I ask you your name?"

 

180

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And she said, "My name is Betty."

 

181

00:13:52,514 --> 00:13:56,518

And I said, "Betty, could I ask you where you are right now?"

 

182

00:13:56,553 --> 00:14:02,905

She said, "Honey, I'm in my slippers up in my bedroom, looking out of the most beautiful scene of Salt Lake City, Utah."

 

183

00:14:02,940 --> 00:14:08,025

Because Jet Blue has created a complete home reservation system.

 

 

184

00:14:08,060 --> 00:14:11,027

Jet Blue was founded by David Neeleman, a devout Mormon

 

185

00:14:11,062 --> 00:14:15,413

who believes that families would be held together better if one of the spouses works at home

 

186

00:14:15,448 --> 00:14:19,121

and so he created a complete home reservation system

 

187

00:14:19,156 --> 00:14:24,078

that’s manned largely by retiree and housewives in Salt Lake City, Utah.

 

188

00:14:24,113 --> 00:14:28,604

So if you call Jet Blue for reservation, you could get Betty in her bedroom.

 

189

00:14:28,639 --> 00:14:34,941

You might get Bob in the basement, You might get Sue out by the hot tub on her laptop

 

190

00:14:34,976 --> 00:14:38,733

but that's who will make your Jet Blue reservation.

 

191

00:14:38,768 --> 00:14:41,452

And then I kept moving east.

 

192

00:14:41,487 --> 00:14:44,880

I got all the way to Washington. D. C.. I picked up the Washington Post one day.

 

193

00:14:44,915 --> 00:14:48,935

They had a remarkable story about a pilot project begun by McDonald’s

 

194

00:14:48,970 --> 00:14:54,091

where if you drive up to McDonald’s now, at certain locales you drive up to the driving window

 

195

00:14:54,126 --> 00:14:57,663

and you order 6 Big Mac, 6 milk shake and 18 fries for the kids.

 

196

00:14:57,698 --> 00:15:04,667

You are not actually speaking to that McDonald’s.

You are speaking out to McDonald’s call center in Colorado Springs

 

197

00:15:04,702 --> 00:15:08,555

that's taking down your order and taking your picture

 

198

00:15:08,590 --> 00:15:13,339

and then zapping your picture and your order electronically back to that McDonald’s

 

199

00:15:13,374 --> 00:15:17,790

where your picture and order are matched up when you drive up to the driving window.

 

200

00:15:17,825 --> 00:15:21,192

So the world is being flattened

201

00:15:21,227 --> 00:15:28,639

所用的方法我們其中很多人並不知道,

就像我開始這個計畫的時候確實可說被蒙在鼓裡

 

202

00:15:28,674 --> 00:15:34,106

這於是讓我得到了第一章結尾的看法

 

203

00:15:34,141 --> 00:15:40,192

我的看法是全球化有三個重要的年代

 

204

00:15:40,227 --> 00:15:43,926

第一階段是我認為的全球化1.0

 

205

00:15:43,961 --> 00:15:48,623

1492延續到1800年代初期

 

206

00:15:48,658 --> 00:15:51,900

1820年可說是世界貿易化的關鍵

 

207

00:15:51,935 --> 00:15:59,062

這全球化1.0的年代可說是把世界的尺寸從大縮到中等

 

208

00:15:59,097 --> 00:16:04,770

那個年代的全球化是由國家所帶領的

 

209

00:16:04,771 --> 00:16:08,758

你透過你的國家來進行全球化

 

210

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西班牙去新世界,葡萄牙去東亞,英國殖民印度

 

211

00:16:13,891 --> 00:16:20,416

國家進行全球化的原因是因為掠奪主義、力量、自然資源

 

212

00:16:20,451 --> 00:16:24,186

但那個年代的改變動機

 

213

00:16:24,221 --> 00:16:25,761

其實是國家

 

214

00:16:25,762 --> 00:16:29,863

第二個全球化的重要年代,全球化2.0

 

215

00:16:29,898 --> 00:16:34,767

我認為是從1800年初期到2000年,就結束在那一年

 

216

00:16:35,711 --> 00:16:39,413

這一段時代的全球化讓世界從中型縮到小型

 

217

00:16:39,804 --> 00:16:45,061

我認為,這段時間的全球化是由公司全球化所帶領的

 

218

00:16:45,096 --> 00:16:48,372

跨國企業進行全球化是為了市場、為了勞動力

 

219

00:16:48,407 --> 00:16:53,732

在這段全球化的年代中,你是透過你的公司來進行全球化

 

220

00:16:53,767 --> 00:16:58,395

公司是那個年代的全球化動機

 

221

00:16:59,562 --> 00:17:03,230

我在這本書中的論點是,當你沈睡的時候

 

222

00:17:03,265 --> 00:17:06,062

我們進入了全球化3.0的時代

 

223

00:17:06,097 --> 00:17:07,638

我也一樣沈睡著昧於這個真相

 

224

00:17:07,673 --> 00:17:11,222

它將世界從小型縮成微型

 

225

00:17:11,257 --> 00:17:15,525

同時夷平了全球的經濟舞台

 

226

00:17:15,560 --> 00:17:20,430

但這一年代真正獨特不同的地方在於

 

227

00:17:20,465 --> 00:17:27,783

這一年代的全球化並不是國家全球化

 

228

00:17:27,818 --> 00:17:31,263

不是公司全球化

 

229

00:17:31,298 --> 00:17:41,590

這一年代獨特的將會是個人持續的全球化

 

230

00:17:41,625 --> 00:17:43,870

個體和小的團隊

 

231

00:17:43,905 --> 00:17:52,303

這一年代獨特的地方,

就是這些個體和小團隊能將自己全球化的程度

 

232

00:17:52,338 --> 00:17:58,135

而且更必須越來越以全球化的角度思考

,和將自己置於全球化的浪潮之中

 

233

00:17:59,111 --> 00:18:00,834

各位注意了

 

234

00:18:00,869 --> 00:18:03,818

我認為,這個全球化的年代

 

235

00:18:03,853 --> 00:18:06,816

與全球化2.01.0都不同

 

236

00:18:06,851 --> 00:18:12,697

將不會只有一群西方的白人群體得以參與

 

237

00:18:12,732 --> 00:18:14,952

他們原先稱霸了前兩個全球化的年代

 

238

00:18:14,987 --> 00:18:23,080

而將會是由各種膚色,

能夠隨時連上網路的個體和人群來參與

 

239

00:18:24,010 --> 00:18:26,547

所以,這是第一章的論點

 

240

00:18:26,582 --> 00:18:29,505

本書花了我最多時間的第二章,

 

241

00:18:29,540 --> 00:18:32,683

叫做十天夷平全世界

 

242

00:18:32,718 --> 00:18:37,851

是有關十種夷平世界的科技、力量和發明,

我試著在每一天安排一種力量在其中

 

243

00:18:37,886 --> 00:18:42,757

這些力量創造了這平坦的全球舞台

 

244

00:18:43,733 --> 00:18:47,853

讓我一條一條盡快描述這十種夷平機制

 

245

00:18:47,888 --> 00:18:51,332

第一個夷平機制是11/9

 

246

00:18:51,367 --> 00:18:53,747

不是9/11而是11/9

 

247

00:18:53,782 --> 00:18:55,888

1989119

 

248

00:18:55,923 --> 00:18:59,152

119號是柏林圍牆倒下的日子

 

249

00:18:59,187 --> 00:19:02,666

一個日期上的巧合

 

250

00:19:02,701 --> 00:19:06,741

柏林圍牆的倒塌是個重要的夷平機制

 

251

00:19:06,776 --> 00:19:12,486

因為圍牆的倒塌讓我們得以將全世界視為單一的平原

 

252

00:19:12,521 --> 00:19:16,781

我敢說,如果我們回頭查詢麻省理工或是紐時的資料庫

 

253

00:19:16,816 --> 00:19:22,382

1970或是80年代,我們不會找到很多關於全球化的課程

 

254

00:19:22,417 --> 00:19:27,158

會有東方政策的課程,或是西方政策的課程

 

255

00:19:27,193 --> 00:19:30,046

他們會教導南北的不同

 

256

00:19:30,081 --> 00:19:34,325

但沒有人會討論全球化,因為有堵牆擋住了道路

 

257

00:19:34,360 --> 00:19:41,766

圍牆的倒塌是個夷平世界的關鍵,

讓我們得以將全世界視為單一的平原

 

258

00:19:43,340 --> 00:19:48,657

我把這個圍牆倒下,視窗出現的時間點叫做第一個夷平機制

 

259

00:19:48,692 --> 00:19:55,858

因為視窗3.0作業系統在柏林圍牆倒塌後五個月上市

 

260

00:19:55,893 --> 00:19:58,610

這兩件事情發生在同時

 

261

00:20:00,099 --> 00:20:10,626

不只圍牆倒塌,讓我們可以把世界看成同一個領域

我們還有一個單一的圖形界面系統,讓我們可以觀察這個世界

 

262

00:20:10,661 --> 00:20:12,291

那是第一個夷平機制

 

263

00:20:13,604 --> 00:20:17,115

第二個夷平機制是199589

 

264

00:20:17,150 --> 00:20:22,426

我認為199589號是西方文明最重要的日期之一

 

265

00:20:22,461 --> 00:20:31,257

199589號是一個位在美國加州

Mountain View的小公司Netscape股票上市的日期

 

266

00:20:31,292 --> 00:20:35,131

Netscape上市會成為重要的夷平機制有三個原因

 

267

00:20:35,166 --> 00:20:39,178

首先,是Netscape瀏覽器

 

268

00:20:39,213 --> 00:20:44,866

是我們第一個真正能讓網路鮮活起來的網路瀏覽器

 

269

00:20:44,901 --> 00:20:49,553

讓爺爺奶奶孫子孫女都可以使用

 

270

00:20:49,588 --> 00:20:53,593

而不是只有在麻省理工受訓的電腦科學家可以使用

 

271

00:20:53,628 --> 00:20:58,835

所以,在我認為Netscape最大的功勞是讓網路鮮活起來

 

272

00:20:58,870 --> 00:21:09,298

讓來自不同地方的人們,可以用各種方式

前所未有的彼此聯繫

 

273

00:21:09,333 --> 00:21:13,428

第二件Netscape協助,但並非獨力完成的是:

 

274

00:21:13,463 --> 00:21:17,537

Netscape將一些開放的傳輸協定商業化

 

275

00:21:17,572 --> 00:21:26,034

確保了網路可以跨平台跨國使用,

而不會僅是某些公司的資產或是任何人的後花園

 

276

00:21:26,069 --> 00:21:30,123

第三點,對我來說最重要的是Netscape觸發了網路熱潮

 

277

00:21:30,158 --> 00:21:32,522

也引起了網路泡沫化

 

278

00:21:32,557 --> 00:21:44,772

意外觸發了瘋狂、不合理、難以說明的投資熱潮

五年內在光纖纜線設備上投入了將近十兆美金

 

279

00:21:44,807 --> 00:21:52,751

而這瘋狂、不合理、難以說明的

在五年內投資十兆美金於光纖網路上的熱潮

 

280

00:21:52,786 --> 00:21:59,904

意外的讓北京、邦加羅爾、

我所居住的Bethesda成為隔壁鄰居

 

281

00:21:59,939 --> 00:22:03,688

沒有任何人、任何組織計畫了這件事情

 

282

00:22:03,723 --> 00:22:07,000

你們都應該可以回想起來這是怎麼發生的

 

283

00:22:07,035 --> 00:22:09,733

Netscape199589號上市

 

284

00:22:09,768 --> 00:22:13,706

開盤價格是28美金

 

285

00:22:13,741 --> 00:22:18,893

當天股市以71開市,56收盤

 

286

00:22:18,928 --> 00:22:27,374

我們看著這狀況都認為:他們一定很賺錢

 

287

00:22:28,446 --> 00:22:32,125

所以我們怎麼作,我們都開始搶購GlobalAcrossing

 

288

00:22:32,160 --> 00:22:36,708

NortelLucent

 

289

00:22:36,743 --> 00:22:39,470

拜託,承認吧,這是在你們的退休計畫裡面的股票

 

290

00:22:40,798 --> 00:22:43,405

那些公司拿了我們的錢

 

291

00:22:43,440 --> 00:22:53,369

我們的共同基金之後,在海上、

在地上埋設了一哩又一哩的光纖纜線

 

292

00:22:54,600 --> 00:22:57,162

諸位一定都很清楚

 

293

00:22:57,197 --> 00:23:03,362

光纖纜線是永遠不會停止的禮物

 

294

00:23:04,309 --> 00:23:13,371

因為一旦將它們埋下,你只需要將

各端點的轉換器升級,就可以傳輸越來越多的容量

 

295

00:23:14,541 --> 00:23:20,596

基本上,這大量的、無孔不入的光纖

 

296

00:23:20,631 --> 00:23:29,508

讓更多地方的更多人,

幾乎可說是史無前例完全免費的彼此溝通

 

297

00:23:30,795 --> 00:23:34,771

所以,這就是Netscape的夷平機制的意義

 

298

00:23:34,806 --> 00:23:36,989

第三個夷平機制我簡單的稱其為工作流程

 

299

00:23:37,024 --> 00:23:44,198

工作流程是我對於所有能讓工作運作的軟體和標準的簡稱

 

300

00:23:44,233 --> 00:23:52,309

包括微軟的WORDNetmeeting

所有你們工作時所使用的軟體等等

 

201

00:15:21,227 --> 00:15:28,639

in all kinds of ways that a lot of us aren't fully aware of.

I certainly was not aware of it when I started this project.

 

202

00:15:28,674 --> 00:15:34,106

That sort of brings me to the kind of metathesis of the book which is the end of the first chapter.

 

203

00:15:34,141 --> 00:15:40,192

Basically what I am arguing there is that, there've been 3 great era of globalization, I would argue.

 

204

00:15:40,227 --> 00:15:43,926

The first era, try to call globalization 1.0,

 

205

00:15:43,961 --> 00:15:48,623

lasted from, while I would say, 1492 until the early 1800s.

 

206

00:15:48,658 --> 00:15:51,900

Say, 1820 was the beginning of global arbitrage.

 

207

00:15:51,935 --> 00:15:59,062

The first era of globalization 1.0 really shrank the world from a size large to a size medium.

 

208

00:15:59,097 --> 00:16:04,770

That era of globalization was really spearheaded by countries globalizing.

 

209

00:16:04,771 --> 00:16:08,758

You went global through your country.

 

210

00:16:08,793 --> 00:16:13,856

Whether it’s Spain exploring the new world, Portugal East Asia, Britain colonizing India,

 

211

00:16:13,891 --> 00:16:20,416

it was countries going global for reasons of imperialism, power, natural resources,

 

212

00:16:20,451 --> 00:16:24,186

but the dynamic agent of globalization in that era

 

213

00:16:24,221 --> 00:16:25,761

was really the country.

 

214

00:16:25,762 --> 00:16:29,863

The second great era of globalization, globalization 2.0,

 

215

00:16:29,898 --> 00:16:34,767

I would argue, was from early 1800s until the year 2000. It just ended.

 

216

00:16:35,711 --> 00:16:39,413

And that era of globalization shrank the world from size medium to size small.

 

217

00:16:39,804 --> 00:16:45,061

And that era of globalization, I would argue, was spearheaded by companies globalizing,

 

218

00:16:45,096 --> 00:16:48,372

multinationals globalizing for markets and for labor.

 

219

00:16:48,407 --> 00:16:53,732

And in that era of globalization, you went global through your company.

 

220

00:16:53,767 --> 00:16:58,395

The company was the dynamic agent of that era of globalization.

 

221

00:16:59,562 --> 00:17:03,230

What I am trying to argue in this book is: while you were sleeping,

 

222

00:17:03,265 --> 00:17:06,062

We enter globalization 3.0.

 

223

00:17:06,097 --> 00:17:07,638

Certainly while I was sleeping.

 

224

00:17:07,673 --> 00:17:11,222

It is shrinking the world from size small to size tiny,

 

225

00:17:11,257 --> 00:17:15,525

and flattening the global economic playing field at the same time.

 

226

00:17:15,560 --> 00:17:20,430

Only what's really new, unique and different about this era

 

227

00:17:20,465 --> 00:17:27,783

is that this era of globalization is not built around countries globalizing,

 

228

00:17:27,818 --> 00:17:31,263

and is not built around companies globalizing.

 

229

00:17:31,298 --> 00:17:41,590

What is new and unique about this era is the degree to which it is and will continue to be built around individuals globalizing,

 

230

00:17:41,625 --> 00:17:43,870

individuals and small groups.

 

231

00:17:43,905 --> 00:17:52,303

That is the new and unique thing about this era is the degree to which individuals and small groups can globalize themselves

 

232

00:17:52,338 --> 00:17:58,135

and increasingly must think of themselves globally and locate themselves globally.

 

233

00:17:59,111 --> 00:18:00,834

And pay attention.

 

234

00:18:00,869 --> 00:18:03,818

This era of globalization, I would argue,

 

235

00:18:03,853 --> 00:18:06,816

unlike globalization 1.0 and 2.0,

 

236

00:18:06,851 --> 00:18:12,697

is not gonna be built exclusively around a group of white western individuals

 

237

00:18:12,732 --> 00:18:14,952

who dominated the first 2 eras of globalization.

 

238

00:18:14,987 --> 00:18:23,080

It's gonna be built around individuals and small groups of every color of the rainbow who will be able to plug and play.

 

239

00:18:24,010 --> 00:18:26,547

So that's the kind of the meta argument here.

 

240

00:18:26,582 --> 00:18:29,505

Now the second chapter of the book, the one that really took me the longest,

 

241

00:18:29,540 --> 00:18:32,683

is called "the Tens Days of Flattened World".

 

242

00:18:32,718 --> 00:18:37,851

It's about the ten forces, technology and advances I tried to build each one around a day

 

243

00:18:37,886 --> 00:18:42,757

that really created this level, this global playing field.

 

244

00:18:43,733 --> 00:18:47,853

And let me go through what I called "The Ten Flatteners" as quickly as I can.

 

245

00:18:47,888 --> 00:18:51,332

The first flattener is 11/9

 

246

00:18:51,367 --> 00:18:53,747

Not 9/11, 11/9.

 

247

00:18:53,782 --> 00:18:55,888

11/9/1989.

 

248

00:18:55,923 --> 00:18:59,152

11/9 is the day the Berlin Wall came down.

 

249

00:18:59,187 --> 00:19:02,666

Wonderful sort of cabalistic accident of dates.

 

250

00:19:02,701 --> 00:19:06,741

And the fall of the wall was a huge flattener

 

251

00:19:06,776 --> 00:19:12,486

because the fall of the wall allowed us to see and think of the world as a single flat plane.

 

252

00:19:12,521 --> 00:19:16,781

I dare say if we look back in the archives of MIT or the New York Times,

 

253

00:19:16,816 --> 00:19:22,382

we won't find a lot of people or a lot of courses about globalization in 1970 or 1980.

 

254

00:19:22,417 --> 00:19:27,158

People had eastern policies and they had western policies.

 

255

00:19:27,193 --> 00:19:30,046

They talked about the north and they talked about the south,

 

256

00:19:30,081 --> 00:19:34,325

but no one was really talking about globalization because there was a wall in the way.

 

257

00:19:34,360 --> 00:19:41,766

And the fall of the wall was a huge flattener because it allowed us to see and think of the world as a single flat plane.

 

258

00:19:43,340 --> 00:19:48,657

I call this first flattener when the walls came down and the Windows came up

 

259

00:19:48,692 --> 00:19:55,858

because the Windows operating system 3.0, the breakthrough system shifted 5 months after the fall of the Berlin Wall

 

260

00:19:55,893 --> 00:19:58,610

And so those two things happened at the same time.

 

261

00:20:00,099 --> 00:20:10,626

Not only the wall came down and gave us the ability to look at the world through a single space, but we are suddenly endowed with a kind of a single graphic user interface to all start to look at the world through.

 

263

00:20:13,604 --> 00:20:17,115

That was the first flattener. The 2nd flattener is 8/9/1995.

 

264

00:20:17,150 --> 00:20:22,426

I consider 8/9/1995 one of the most important days in western civilization.

 

265

00:20:22,461 --> 00:20:31,257

August 9th 1995 is the date a small start-up company in Mountain View, California called Netscape went public.

 

266

00:20:31,292 --> 00:20:35,131

And Netscape is going to be the huge flattener for 3 reasons.

 

267

00:20:35,166 --> 00:20:39,178

First of all, it was really the Netscape browser

 

268

00:20:39,213 --> 00:20:44,866

that gave us the 1st commercial browser that really brought the Internet alive,

 

269

00:20:44,901 --> 00:20:49,553

brought it alive in the way that grandma and grandpa, grandson and granddaughter could use it,

 

270

00:20:49,588 --> 00:20:53,593

not just the computer scientists trained in MIT.

 

271

00:20:53,628 --> 00:20:58,835

And so, the huge breakthrough of Netscape was it, in my view, brought the Internet alive,

 

272

00:20:58,870 --> 00:21:09,298

as a device that people from more different places in more different ways could connect with one another than ever before.

 

273

00:21:09,333 --> 00:21:13,428

The second thing that Netscape contributed to, certainty didn’t do it alone with

 

274

00:21:13,463 --> 00:21:17,537

Netscape commercialized a set of transmission protocols based on open standard

 

275

00:21:17,572 --> 00:21:26,034

which help ensure that the Internet would be interoperable and won’t be the province of any single company or anyone’s ward garden.

 

276

00:21:26,069 --> 00:21:30,123

Third, the most importantly to me, Netscape triggered the .com boom,

 

277

00:21:30,158 --> 00:21:32,522

and that triggered the dot com bubble.

 

278

00:21:32,557 --> 00:21:44,772

and that triggered the accidental, ridiculous, absurd, outrageous, insane overinvestment, of something closed to a trillion dollars in fiber optic cable in 5 years.

 

279

00:21:44,807 --> 00:21:52,751

And that crazy, absurd, ridiculous investment of nearly a trillion dollars in fiber optic cable in 5 years

 

280

00:21:52,786 --> 00:21:59,904

accidentally made Beijing, Bangalore and Bethesda, where I live, next-door neighbors,

 

281

00:21:59,939 --> 00:22:03,688

without anyone, anywhere planning it to happen.

 

282

00:22:03,723 --> 00:22:07,000

You recall how it to place.

 

283

00:22:07,035 --> 00:22:09,733

Netscape went public on the morning of 1995.8.9,

 

284

00:22:09,768 --> 00:22:13,706

at the price of 28 dollars. That was the opening price.

 

285

00:22:13,741 --> 00:22:18,893

The stock opened the day at 71, closed the day at 56.

 

286

00:22:18,928 --> 00:22:27,374

And we all looked at that and said, “Wow, there is gold over them there’re hells.”

 

287

00:22:28,446 --> 00:22:32,125

And so what we do? We all went out and we brought Global Crossing,

 

288

00:22:32,160 --> 00:22:36,708

Nortel, Lucent.

 

289

00:22:36,743 --> 00:22:39,470

Come on, admit it. It was in your 4O1K.

 

290

00:22:40,798 --> 00:22:43,405

And those companies took our money

 

291

00:22:43,440 --> 00:22:53,369

and our mutual funds and they laid mile after mile of under-sea and over-land fiber optic cable.

 

292

00:22:54,600 --> 00:22:57,162

And I only have to tell this crowd about fiber optic cable

 

293

00:22:57,197 --> 00:23:03,362

that it is the gift that keeps on giving,

 

294

00:23:04,309 --> 00:23:13,371

Coz once it’s set in the ground, all you have to do is to keep improving those switches at each end and you light more and more capacities.

 

295

00:23:14,541 --> 00:23:20,596

And basically, that glut, that massive glut of fiber optic cable,

 

296

00:23:20,631 --> 00:23:29,508

allowed suddenly more people in more places to communicate virtually for free than ever before in the history of the planet.

 

297

00:23:30,795 --> 00:23:34,771

So, that really is what the Netscape flattener was all about.

 

298

00:23:34,806 --> 00:23:36,989

The third flattener I simply called work-flow.

 

299

00:23:37,024 --> 00:23:44,198

And work flow is simply my catch-all for all the software and all the standards

 

300

00:23:44,233 --> 00:23:52,309

that allowed work to flow, everything from Microsoft Word ,to Microsoft Net-Meeting, to all the proprietor software that you are right and work on in your daily work.

301

00:23:52,344 --> 00:23:57,273

再一次,如果我們回到80年代的麻省理工

 

302

00:23:57,308 --> 00:24:02,739

入學部門可能用微軟的軟體,會計部門用Norvell

 

303

00:24:02,774 --> 00:24:08,272

兩個部門都比以前有效率多了,因為他們有電腦

 

304

00:24:08,307 --> 00:24:12,018

但這些應用程式彼此無法連結

 

305

00:24:12,053 --> 00:24:16,984

當然,我們知道現在還是有很多軟體彼此無法連結

 

306

00:24:17,019 --> 00:24:25,432

但在90年代中期的革命,讓更多的軟體可以和更多別的軟體連結

 

307

00:24:25,467 --> 00:24:29,401

這樣的結果,這樣的軟體革命成果

 

308

00:24:29,402 --> 00:24:32,577

從所謂的中間軟體到傳輸協定

 

309

00:24:32,612 --> 00:24:42,041

是讓人們可以史無前例的在更多事情上跟其他人合作

 

310

00:24:42,076 --> 00:24:46,328

當我的軟體可以和你的軟體合作時

 

311

00:24:46,363 --> 00:24:52,936

我們可以在虛擬空間裡史無前例的緊密合作

 

312

00:24:52,971 --> 00:25:00,111

我認為,在90年代中期,是所謂平坦世界的創世紀

 

313

00:25:00,146 --> 00:25:08,614

因為,當你考慮到Netscape革命,人們可以

史無前例的透過網路與其他人溝通

 

314

00:25:09,304 --> 00:25:16,599

然後,再加上軟體的革命,

史無前例的讓更多軟體可以連結別的軟體

 

315

00:25:16,634 --> 00:25:25,382

我們所創造出來的,就是一個足以讓全球進行合作的平台

 

316

00:25:25,417 --> 00:25:35,933

突然間,有更多人,

可以透過網路史無前例的在更多事務上相連結

 

317

00:25:35,968 --> 00:25:40,228

這對我來說,就是世界地形開始被夷平的創世紀

 

318

00:25:40,263 --> 00:25:46,061

接下來的六個夷平機制,則是從這個平台上產生的新合作方式

 

319

00:25:46,096 --> 00:25:48,829

並且繼續讓世界變得更平坦

 

320

00:25:48,864 --> 00:25:50,359

我很快的介紹一下它們

 

321

00:25:50,394 --> 00:25:52,200

第一個,當然就是外包

 

322

00:25:52,235 --> 00:25:55,537

外包不過僅是一種新的合作模式

 

323

00:25:55,572 --> 00:26:00,465

是由人與人,軟體與軟體之間的合作所促成的

 

324

00:26:00,500 --> 00:26:09,218

今日,如果麻省理工願意的話,可以把會計部門

委外給在這個平台上的北波士頓、北達科塔州、北邦加羅爾

 

325

00:26:09,253 --> 00:26:13,122

每個地區幾乎都是平等的存在

 

326

00:26:13,157 --> 00:26:16,103

外包是種新的合作方式

 

327

00:26:16,138 --> 00:26:19,312

另外一種合作方式是境外生產

 

328

00:26:19,347 --> 00:26:26,825

我把這些都按照時間來編排,所以外包是在2000

而境外生產則是在中國加入世界貿易組織的時候

 

329

00:26:26,860 --> 00:26:29,560

將境外生產帶到了一個截然不同的等級

 

330

00:26:29,595 --> 00:26:34,282

我可以把我的工廠

從美國俄亥俄州的Canton,移到中國的廣東

 

331

00:26:34,317 --> 00:26:37,441

並且將它整合進我的全球生產體系中

 

332

00:26:37,476 --> 00:26:38,800

這就是境外生產

 

333

00:26:38,835 --> 00:26:41,713

第三種新的合作方式是開放原始碼

 

334

00:26:42,641 --> 00:26:48,065

開放原始碼對我來說是個動詞,是將原始碼開放的新合作方式

 

335

00:26:48,100 --> 00:26:53,919

是像諸位中的半數人一樣的電腦怪才,回家半夜搞著Linux作業系統

 

336

00:26:54,421 --> 00:26:57,215

今日Linux已經佔據了全世界15%的作業系統市場

 

337

00:26:57,250 --> 00:27:02,333

巴西幾個月前才宣佈,要把政府的所有作業系統換成Linux

 

338

00:27:02,368 --> 00:27:07,941

顯然這是全新的有創意的合作模式

 

339

00:27:08,885 --> 00:27:12,671

不知道微軟會怎麼想,不知道你如果是Bill Gates會怎麼樣?

 

340

00:27:12,706 --> 00:27:15,003

說真的,你們有多想要成為Bill Gates

 

341

00:27:16,051 --> 00:27:22,244

舊的模式是有任何人、任何地方挑戰你,你就減價

 

342

00:27:23,362 --> 00:27:26,776

但是,要做到免費是很困難的

 

343

00:27:26,811 --> 00:27:28,407

要免費是很困難的

 

344

00:27:28,442 --> 00:27:38,166

你很難成為那一群願意免費在家熬夜撰寫下一代作業系統

或是下一代微軟WORD或是ADOBEACROBAT READER的電腦怪才

 

345

00:27:38,201 --> 00:27:40,733

有些人這樣做是因為他們痛恨微軟

 

346

00:27:40,768 --> 00:27:44,037

讓我們老實說吧,很多人這樣做是因為他們恨微軟

 

347

00:27:44,072 --> 00:27:49,133

事實上,如果沒有微軟,會不會有開放原始碼運動

 

348

00:27:49,168 --> 00:27:56,030

還有其他人這樣做的原因是諸位最瞭解的:

只因為單純的科學研究

 

349

00:27:56,065 --> 00:27:59,366

嘿嘿,看看我想出來的這個運算法!

 

350

00:27:59,401 --> 00:28:03,614

看看這個升級程式,超酷的,你一定得要試一試!

 

351

00:28:06,133 --> 00:28:07,292

但不管他們作的原因為何

 

352

00:28:07,327 --> 00:28:10,773

這是全美國唯一會聽懂這種對話笑點的聽眾

 

353

00:28:10,808 --> 00:28:12,940

真是太好了,太棒了

 

354

00:28:16,018 --> 00:28:18,289

其他人只會坐在那邊:這傢伙在瞎扯什麼啊!

 

355

00:28:20,794 --> 00:28:22,448

不管他們這樣作的原因為何

 

356

00:28:22,483 --> 00:28:26,992

就像Firefox一樣,這是一種全新的合作方式

 

357

00:28:27,027 --> 00:28:33,047

Firefox是一個19歲的Stanford大學生

和另一個24歲的New Zealand人合作出來的產品

 

358

00:28:33,082 --> 00:28:35,735

他們至今還沒碰過面

 

359

00:28:35,770 --> 00:28:40,025

在一天內,抱歉,是一個月內被下載了一千萬次

 

360

00:28:40,060 --> 00:28:43,279

一個月就搶佔了微軟的IE百分之五的市場

 

361

00:28:43,314 --> 00:28:48,007

所以,這是一種極為強力的合作模式

 

362

00:28:48,042 --> 00:28:54,447

而我今天有榮幸瞭解的麻省理工學院開放式課程計畫

 

363

00:28:54,482 --> 00:28:56,375

就正好是另一種表現

 

364

00:28:56,376 --> 00:29:00,615

我認為,這是一個極為有力的創意發展

 

365

00:29:00,650 --> 00:29:02,305

只要世界變得越平坦就越有力

 

366

00:29:02,340 --> 00:29:07,642

第四種新的合作方式我叫做供應鍊化

 

367

00:29:07,677 --> 00:29:09,987

供應鍊化就是Wal-Mart所做的

 

368

00:29:11,731 --> 00:29:16,547

那就是將全球供應鍊效率徹底提升到每一個要素上

 

369

00:29:17,476 --> 00:29:22,760

所以,如果你從Brookline鎮的Wal-Mart架上拿下一個產品

另一個產品就會在中國深圳被製造出來

 

370

00:29:22,795 --> 00:29:26,721

如果Wal-Mart是個國家,

它將會是今日中國第八大的貿易對象

 

371

00:29:26,756 --> 00:29:28,961

甚至領先加拿大和澳洲

 

372

00:29:29,729 --> 00:29:36,208

我在此的朋友Yossi Sheffi教過我有關供應鍊的知識

 

373

00:29:36,243 --> 00:29:42,054

他有句話說的很好:製造東西?製造東西很簡單。

 

374

00:29:42,089 --> 00:29:45,455

設計和布置供應鍊,那才是真正困難的地方

 

375

00:29:47,437 --> 00:29:50,094

他說:想想Wal-Mart

 

376

00:29:50,954 --> 00:29:55,380

Wal-Mart是美國最大的公司,但他們卻什麼都不製造

 

377

00:29:56,693 --> 00:30:01,850

只是將供應鍊效率徹底提升到每一個要素上

 

378

00:30:01,885 --> 00:30:03,892

一種全新的合作模式

 

379

00:30:03,927 --> 00:30:07,306

第五種新的合作模式我叫它作內包(委內)

 

380

00:30:07,341 --> 00:30:09,572

UPS所做的就叫做內包

 

381

00:30:09,607 --> 00:30:13,035

你知道那些開著可笑褐色卡車,穿著可笑褐色短褲的人

 

382

00:30:14,075 --> 00:30:19,994

如果你以為他們作的僅只是送包裹,那你就太過大意了

 

383

00:30:21,159 --> 00:30:23,984

他們現在在作什麼?在他們的卡車上有暗示

 

384

00:30:24,019 --> 00:30:27,697

現在寫著,「同步你的世界」

 

385

00:30:27,732 --> 00:30:30,470

因為現在UPS的工作包括了公司內勤運輸

 

386

00:30:30,896 --> 00:30:37,941

他們來到你的總部,也就是接管你總部(脖子)以下的

所有內勤運輸,我稱這為內包

 

387

00:30:39,067 --> 00:30:41,334

假設你有一台Toshiba筆記型電腦

 

388

00:30:41,369 --> 00:30:45,432

而它壞了,所以你就看保證書,上面寫著要打1-800-HELP

 

389

00:30:45,467 --> 00:30:46,801

所以你就打了1-800-HELP

 

390

00:30:46,836 --> 00:30:49,633

然後他們告訴你,

把你的Toshiba筆記型電腦送到附近的UPS快遞點

 

391

00:30:49,668 --> 00:30:52,408

把它送給我們,我們會在72小時之內送還

 

392

00:30:52,443 --> 00:30:53,616

你所不知道的是...

 

393

00:30:53,651 --> 00:31:00,123

你的Toshiba電腦從那家店,

Kentuky州的Louisville機場UPS物流中心

 

394

00:31:00,158 --> 00:31:04,098

在當地Louisville機場的機庫無塵室中,

 

395

00:31:04,133 --> 00:31:08,201

你的Toshiba筆記型電腦是由UPS的員工來修復

 

396

00:31:08,236 --> 00:31:11,168

它永遠不需要真正接觸Toshiba的部門

 

397

00:31:11,203 --> 00:31:14,505

Toshiba已經把這部分完全內包給UPS

 

398

00:31:14,540 --> 00:31:19,160

Nike.com,你想要找雙新鞋穿,到Nike.com上看看

 

399

00:31:19,195 --> 00:31:24,624

你所不知道的是,螢幕的另一端是個穿著可笑褐色短褲的人

 

400

00:31:25,928 --> 00:31:33,679

他收到你的訂單,從UPS管理的Nike倉庫取出鞋子和包裝

 

301

00:23:52,344 --> 00:23:57,273

Again I will go back to MIT probably in the, sometime in the 80s.

 

302

00:23:57,308 --> 00:24:02,739

You know the admissions department would be probably running the Microsoft, the bookkeeping department was running Novell.

 

303

00:24:02,774 --> 00:24:08,272

Both departments were much more efficient because they had computers,

 

304

00:24:08,307 --> 00:24:12,018

but applications did not connect to applications.

 

305

00:24:12,053 --> 00:24:16,984

Now, a lot of applications still don’t connect applications, we certainly know that.

 

306

00:24:17,019 --> 00:24:25,432

But over the 90s, there was a revolution in software that has connected a lot of more applications with a lot of more other applications,

 

307

00:24:25,467 --> 00:24:29,401

and the net result of that created revolution from middle ware to

 

308

00:24:29,402 --> 00:24:32,5

all kinds of transmission protocols.

 

309

00:24:32,612 --> 00:24:42,041

The net result of that is that people are able to work together with other people on more stuff than ever before.

 

310

00:24:42,076 --> 00:24:46,328

When my applications can work with your applications virtually that we don’t have to think about it,

 

311

00:24:46,363 --> 00:24:52,936

it means that we can work together like never before.

 

312

00:24:52,971 --> 00:25:00,111

And this, I would argue, some point in the mid 1990s was what I called the genesis moment of the flat world,

 

313

00:25:00,146 --> 00:25:08,614

because when you take that Netscape revolution, people able to connect with people over a network like never before,

 

314

00:25:09,304 --> 00:25:16,599

and then you take the revolution in software of more and more applications connecting to more other applications than never before,

 

315

00:25:16,634 --> 00:25:25,382

what we created, willy-nilly, was a global platform for multiple forms of collaboration.

 

316

00:25:25,417 --> 00:25:35,933

Suddenly more people could collaborate and connect on more stuff than ever before in the history of the world.

 

317

00:25:35,968 --> 00:25:40,228

And that, to me, was the genesis moment for the flattening of the world.

 

318

00:25:40,263 --> 00:25:46,061

Now the next six flatteners are the new forms of collaboration

 

31900:25:46,096 --> 00:25:48,829

that sprang from this platform and have come back to flatten the world even more.

 

320

00:25:48,864 --> 00:25:50,359

I’ll go through them quickly.

 

321

00:25:50,394 --> 00:25:52,200

The first of course is ‘outsourcing’.

 

322

00:25:52,235 --> 00:25:55,537 Outsourcing is just a new form of collaboration

 

323

00:25:55,572 --> 00:26:00,465

empowered by this platform of people to people and application to application.

 

324

00:26:00,500 --> 00:26:09,218

Now, MIT, if it wants to, can out-source the whole bookkeeping department to North Boston, North Dakota or North Bangalore.

 

325

00:26:09,253 --> 00:26:13,122

Of this platform either one would be almost equally easy.

 

326

00:26:13,157 --> 00:26:16,103

Outsourcing, a new form of collaboration.

 

327

00:26:16,138 --> 00:26:19,312

The next new form of collaboration is ‘Off-shoring.’

 

328

00:26:19,347 --> 00:26:26,825

I build each of these around the dates, so out-sourcing was built around Y2K, off-shoring was built around when China joined the World Trade Organization 

 

32900:26:26,860 --> 00:26:29,560

which takes off-shoring to a whole new level.

 

 

330

00:26:29,595 --> 00:26:34,282

Now I take my whole factory from Canton, Ohio and I move it to Canton in China

 

331

00:26:34,317 --> 00:26:37,441

and integrate it into my global production system-

 

332

00:26:37,476 --> 00:26:38,800

off-shoring.

 

333

00:26:38,835 --> 00:26:41,713

Third new form of collaboration is open-sourcing.

 

334

00:26:42,641 --> 00:26:48,065

‘Open-source’, to me, is a verb. It’s open-sourcing. It is actually a new form of collaboration

 

335

00:26:48,100 --> 00:26:53,919

It’s a bunch of geeks like half of you, sitting at home, working on the LINUX operating system

 

336

00:26:54,421 --> 00:26:57,215

which todaythe day has 15% of global OS market.

 

337

00:26:57,250 --> 00:27:02,333 Brazil just announced a couple month ago. It’s converting the whole Brazilian government to LINUX.

 

338

00:27:02,368 --> 00:27:07,941

This is a whole new form of collaboration obviously, and innovation.

 

339

00:27:08,885 --> 00:27:12,671

And you know then, how it likes to be Microsoft, how it makes Bill Gates.

 

340

00:27:12,706 --> 00:27:15,003

And how would you like to be Bill Gates?

 

341

00:27:16,051 --> 00:27:22,244

So, your old model: if anyone challenges you and you undercut them on price.

 

342

00:27:23,362 --> 00:27:26,776

And, it’s hard to be free.

 

343

00:27:26,811 --> 00:27:28,407

It’s hard to be free

 

344

00:27:28,442 --> 00:27:38,166

It’s hard to be a bunch of geeks sitting at home writing the next operation system or the next version of Microsoft Word or Adobe Acrobat for free.

 

345

00:27:38,201 --> 00:27:40,733

Some doing it because they hate Microsoft.

 

346

00:27:40,768 --> 00:27:44,037

And let’s be honest, many doing it because they hate Microsoft.

 

347

00:27:44,072 --> 00:27:49,133

That’s just a question: whether there’ll be an open source movement if there were no Microsoft.

 

348

00:27:49,168 --> 00:27:56,030

And many others doing it for all the reasons you, this crowd understands the best, which is the purest view of science of it.

 

349

00:27:56,065 --> 00:27:59,366

“Look at this algorithm I came up with,

 

350

00:27:59,401 --> 00:28:03,614

look at this patch, this is so cool, you gotta try this.”

 

351

00:28:06,133 --> 00:28:07,292

But whatever reason they are doing it…

 

352

00:28:07,327 --> 00:28:10,773

This is only crowd in America who laughs at this line.

 

353

00:28:10,808 --> 00:28:12,940

It is so good, it is great!

 

354

00:28:16,018 --> 00:28:18,289

Other people just sit there. ‘What’s he talking about?”

 

355

00:28:20,794 --> 00:28:22,448

But for whatever reason they are doing it,

 

356

00:28:22,483 --> 00:28:26,992

this, to me, is a whole new form of collaborate. Firefox.

 

357

00:28:27,027 --> 00:28:33,047

Here is web browser produced by a 19-year old at Stanford along with a 24 year old from New Zealand

 

358

00:28:33,082 --> 00:28:35,735

who had never met yet.

 

359

00:28:35,770 --> 00:28:40,025

And, you know in one month, it has been downloaded 10 million times!

 

360

00:28:40,060 --> 00:28:43,279

Takes 5% of Microsoft Explorer’s market in a month.

 

361

00:28:43,314 --> 00:28:48,007

So this is an incredibly powerful new form of collaboration.

 

362

00:28:48,042 --> 00:28:54,447

And the Open University at MIT is doing which I had a pleasure of learning all about today.

 

363

00:28:54,482 --> 00:28:56,375

It’s just another expression of this

 

364

00:28:56,376 --> 00:29:00,615

and it is going to be, I think, incredibly powerful form of innovation.

 

365

00:29:00,650 --> 00:29:02,305

The flatter the world gets.

 

366

00:29:02,340 --> 00:29:07,642

The 4th new form of collaboration, I called ‘supply chaining.’

 

367

00:29:07,677 --> 00:29:09,987

Supply chaining is what Wal-Mart does,

 

368

00:29:11,731 --> 00:29:16,547

i.e. designing a global supply chain down to the last atom of efficiency.

369

00:29:17,476 --> 00:29:22,760

So, you take an item off the shelf from the Wal-Mart in Brooklyn, and another is immediately made in Shenzhen, China.

 

370

00:29:22,795 --> 00:29:26,721

If Wal-Mart were a country, it would be China’s 8th largest trading partner today,

 

371

00:29:26,756 --> 00:29:28,961

ahead of Canada and Australia.

 

372

00:29:29,729 --> 00:29:36,208

And my friend Yossi Sheffi who’s here has taught me something about supply chain.

 

373

00:29:36,243 --> 00:29:42,054

And he has a nice saying, which is that: Making stuff? Making stuff. That is easy.

 

374

00:29:42,089 --> 00:29:45,455

Supply chain? That’s really hard.

 

375

00:29:47,437 --> 00:29:50,094

Think about Wal-Mart” as he said.

 

376

00:29:50,954 --> 00:29:55,380

Wal-Mart is the biggest company in America, and they don’t make anything.

 

377

00:29:56,693 --> 00:30:01,850

Just a supply chain, down to the last atom of efficiency.

 

378

00:30:01,885 --> 00:30:03,892

Whole new form of collaboration.

 

379

00:30:03,927 --> 00:30:07,306

The fifth new form of collaboration I called ‘in-sourcing.’

 

380

00:30:07,341 --> 00:30:09,572

In-sourcing is what UPS does.

 

381

00:30:09,607 --> 00:30:13,035

You know the people in the funny brown trucks in the funny brown shorts.

 

382

00:30:14,075 --> 00:30:19,994

If you think all they’re doing is delivering packages, you are not paying attention.

 

383

00:30:21,159 --> 00:30:23,984

There’s a little hint of what they are up to is on the side of their truck now.

 

384

00:30:24,019 --> 00:30:27,697

It simply says ‘Your world synchronized.”

 

385

00:30:27,732 --> 00:30:30,470

Coz what UPS does now is internal logistics.

 

386

00:30:30,896 --> 00:30:37,941

They come into your company, right up to your neck, right up to headquarters, and take over your entire, internal logistics. That’s I called in-sourcing.

 

387

00:30:39,067 --> 00:30:41,334

So you have a Toshiba laptop

 

388

00:30:41,369 --> 00:30:45,432

and it breaks, and you go to your warranty, and it says called 1-800-HELP.

 

389

00:30:45,467 --> 00:30:46,801

You called 1-800-HELP

 

390

00:30:46,836 --> 00:30:49,633

and they tell you take your Toshiba laptop to the UPS store

 

391

00:30:49,668 --> 00:30:52,408

and send it to us and had it back to in 72 hours.

 

392

00:30:52,443 --> 00:30:53,616

Here’s what you don’t know.

 

393

00:30:53,651 --> 00:31:00,123

Your Toshiba laptop goes from the UPS store to the UPS hub at Louisville airport in Kentucky

 

394

00:31:00,158 --> 00:31:04,098

where in an airline hanger at Louisville airport, in a clean room,

 

395

00:31:04,133 --> 00:31:08,201

your Toshiba laptop is repaired by a UPS employee.

 

396

00:31:08,236 --> 00:31:11,168

It never touches Toshiba’s hands.

 

397

00:31:11,203 --> 00:31:14,505

Toshiba has in-sourced that entirely to UPS.

 

398

00:31:14,540 --> 00:31:19,160

Nike.com. You wanna get the kids a new pair of sneakers. You go on-line Nike.com.

 

399

00:31:19,195 --> 00:31:24,624

What you don’t know is on the other side of the screen, there’s someone in funny brown shorts

 

400 00:31:25,928 --> 00:31:33,679

who is taking down your order, picking and packing the shoes from the Nike w house that UPS manages,

 

 

401

00:31:33,714 --> 00:31:37,712

而且把東西送到你手中,以UPS的名義來收錢

 

402

00:31:37,747 --> 00:31:40,025

當你看到Pappa John's的披薩卡車經過的時候

 

403

00:31:41,025 --> 00:31:42,050

猜猜看是誰在開車?

 

404

00:31:43,485 --> 00:31:47,161

跟我說一遍,是穿著褐色可笑短褲的人在開車

 

405

00:31:47,196 --> 00:31:55,795

因為Pappa John's將它們的麵團

從中央廚房運送到門市的過程內包給UPS

 

406

00:31:55,830 --> 00:31:58,010

這也是一個全新模式的合作

 

407

00:31:58,045 --> 00:32:02,609

他的分工變得越微型,你就必須有越多標準化的作業

 

408

00:32:02,644 --> 00:32:06,166

慢慢的,這將會成為極為重要的夷平機制

 

409

00:32:06,201 --> 00:32:11,530

現今可能有數百,甚至數千家公司再也不碰觸他們的商品了

 

410

00:32:11,565 --> 00:32:17,529

他們不過只是一個行銷空殼,將內部的所有內勤運送都內包給UPS

 

411

00:32:18,290 --> 00:32:22,498

第六個到最後的夷平機制我稱呼為資訊流通化

 

412

00:32:22,533 --> 00:32:25,241

我就是以資訊流通化來稱呼Google

 

413

00:32:25,276 --> 00:32:27,713

也是我稱呼網路搜尋的方式

 

414

00:32:27,748 --> 00:32:33,873

因為我現在可以只靠著我自己獲取資訊,獲取情報

 

415

00:32:34,585 --> 00:32:37,673

TiVo的隨選錄影是一種娛樂的資訊流通化

 

416

00:32:37,708 --> 00:32:41,513

資訊流通化是一種極為有力的合作模式

 

417

00:32:41,514 --> 00:32:47,344

讓我們回顧一下,

前三個創造了一個讓各種合作模式可以運作的平台

 

418

00:32:47,379 --> 00:32:55,215

然後接下來的六個新合作模式:

外包、境外生產、開放原始碼、供應鍊化、內包、資訊流通化

 

419

00:32:55,250 --> 00:32:56,593

這樣是九個

 

420

00:32:56,628 --> 00:32:58,922

第十個是什麼?我說過有十個

 

421

00:32:59,841 --> 00:33:03,994

在書中,我認為第十個應該被稱作活化劑

 

422

00:33:04,029 --> 00:33:11,010

這活化劑是無線化、網路語音傳輸和檔案分享

 

423

00:33:11,907 --> 00:33:14,042

這些活化劑的功能是

 

424

00:33:14,077 --> 00:33:19,289

是將這所有的六種新合作模式超頻推動

 

425

00:33:19,892 --> 00:33:27,002

所以讓我可以在任何地方、

任何地點、任何時間,完全機動的運作

 

426

00:33:27,818 --> 00:33:33,865

這是第二章,也就是我認為夷平世界的十個力量

 

427

00:33:34,546 --> 00:33:39,769

在講完第三章之後我就結束,

第三章是想要將最基本的想法整合在一起

 

428

00:33:40,506 --> 00:33:42,403

第三章我稱作三次機緣巧合的匯流

 

429

00:33:42,438 --> 00:33:45,856

基本上我的看法是,在2000年時

 

430

00:33:45,891 --> 00:33:52,963

有三次機緣的匯流,塑造了我所認為的二十一世紀簡史

 

431

00:33:52,998 --> 00:33:58,197

我認為,第一次的匯流是這十個夷平機制的會合

 

432

00:33:58,232 --> 00:33:59,707

就在2000年時

 

433

00:33:59,742 --> 00:34:06,634

其力量匯聚成了一個轉捩點,彼此之間更互相作用、互相補強

 

434

00:34:06,669 --> 00:34:11,651

所以,資訊流通化協助了外包,外包協助了境外生產

 

435

00:34:11,686 --> 00:34:19,883

開放原始碼驅動了內包,

所有這十個夷平機制的互補力量都開始彼此合作

 

436

00:34:20,874 --> 00:34:22,354

當這事情發生時

 

437

00:34:23,130 --> 00:34:25,458

它們創造了一個平坦的世界

 

438

00:34:25,493 --> 00:34:27,067

我所指的平坦世界是:

 

439

00:34:27,102 --> 00:34:40,979

它們創造了網路連結的全球平台,不論時間、距離、地形,

甚至語言,讓各種模式的工作和知識得以分享與分配

 

440

00:34:41,014 --> 00:34:43,612

這就是我口中世界是平的的意義

 

441

00:34:43,647 --> 00:34:49,882

我是說,

我們創造了一個全球網路平台來分享知識和分配工作

 

442

00:34:49,917 --> 00:34:55,898

不受時間、距離、地形的限制,

甚至也越來越不受語言的限制

 

443

00:34:55,933 --> 00:34:58,181

我相信那個平台

 

444

00:34:58,216 --> 00:35:05,667

如果你把那個平台納入考量,

你就可以明白更多今日世界發生的事情

 

445

00:35:05,702 --> 00:35:09,290

遠勝過用任何其他的框架去衡量

 

446

00:35:09,325 --> 00:35:14,154

你可以解釋能源需求的上升,你可以解釋外包的增加

 

447

00:35:14,189 --> 00:35:18,338

你也可以解釋麻省理工的開放式課程

 

448

00:35:20,618 --> 00:35:23,561

你也可以解釋911事件和Al-Qaeda

 

449

00:35:24,226 --> 00:35:31,025

所以,第一次的匯集是這些創造出全球平台的力量匯集

 

450

00:35:31,060 --> 00:35:33,864

越來越多的人可以隨插隨用這個平台

 

451

00:35:34,560 --> 00:35:38,328

第二次匯集,我們正在經歷它的開端

 

452

00:35:38,363 --> 00:35:42,088

是我們每個人都必須學著去平行化我們自己

 

453

00:35:42,123 --> 00:35:47,216

我們都必須改變我們的商業習慣、學習習慣

 

454

00:35:47,251 --> 00:35:51,567

必須有創意的修正它們去適應這個新平台

 

455

00:35:51,602 --> 00:35:57,664

因為,我們正離開

一個以垂直方式的控制與指揮的儲藏庫來創造價值的世界

 

456

00:35:57,699 --> 00:36:03,873

而變成一個因你和什麼人有連結、

和什麼人合作來創造價值的世界

 

457

00:36:03,908 --> 00:36:08,729

我們正位在這改變的前緣,一切正從垂直變得水平

 

458

00:36:09,346 --> 00:36:11,272

我想,瞭解這最好的方式是

 

459

00:36:11,307 --> 00:36:16,202

Stanford的經濟學家Paul David寫了一篇很棒的文章

 

460

00:36:16,237 --> 00:36:18,195

我想你們很多人應該要去讀的一篇有關電力的文章

 

461

00:36:18,196 --> 00:36:23,347

他問了一個問題:當電力首次出現的時候,

為什麼我們的生產力沒有突然增加

 

462

00:36:23,348 --> 00:36:25,412

他所研究的結果是

 

463

00:36:25,447 --> 00:36:29,867

要獲得電力馬達取代蒸汽引擎的生產力提升

 

464

00:36:29,902 --> 00:36:31,940

我們必須先重新設計建築

 

465

00:36:31,975 --> 00:36:36,204

高大的多層建築物,可以容納蒸汽引擎和各種滑輪

 

466

00:36:36,239 --> 00:36:42,134

改成小型的低矮建築,讓工廠可用電力馬達運轉

 

467

00:36:42,169 --> 00:36:45,639

管理者必須要改變他們的管理方法

 

468

00:36:45,674 --> 00:36:48,448

建築師得要適應和修正新建築的設計

 

469

00:36:48,483 --> 00:36:52,391

車間管理員得要修正他們的管理方式

 

470

00:36:52,426 --> 00:36:56,996

有數以百萬計的習慣和結構必須要改變

 

471

00:36:57,031 --> 00:37:00,339

一旦他們在某個轉捩點作了改變,轟的一聲

 

472

00:37:00,374 --> 00:37:04,827

那我們才能真正的獲得電力所導致的生產力大幅提昇

 

473

00:37:04,862 --> 00:37:14,549

我認為,我們也正如同電力的改變一樣,

正好在水平的平台上,正學著改變自己的習慣,將自己水平化

 

474

00:37:15,526 --> 00:37:19,813

事實上,我是在寫這書時,非常個人的狀況下發現的

 

475

00:37:19,848 --> 00:37:22,293

我住在Maryland州,Bethesda

 

476

00:37:22,328 --> 00:37:26,989

我的女兒是大二的學生,她在ConnectiuctNew Haven讀書

 

477

00:37:27,024 --> 00:37:29,622

我去年三月準備要去看她

 

478

00:37:29,657 --> 00:37:36,055

要從MarylandBethesda

要去ConnectiuctNew Haven實在是有夠麻煩的

 

479

00:37:36,090 --> 00:37:40,822

你得要開車從BethesdaBaltimoreBWI機場

 

480

00:37:40,857 --> 00:37:44,622

搭乘Southwest航空到Hartford

 

481

00:37:44,657 --> 00:37:47,688

然後開車一小時從HartfordNew Haven

 

482

00:37:47,723 --> 00:37:52,233

我去年春天去的時候帶了兩個包包和衣服給我女兒

 

483

00:37:54,869 --> 00:37:57,929

我準備搭Southwest航空去,我很喜歡Southwest航空

 

484

00:37:57,964 --> 00:38:01,954

諸位可能沒坐過Southwest航空,但它是沒有保留機位的

 

485

00:38:01,989 --> 00:38:06,096

你只會拿到一張機票,上面寫著ABC

 

486

00:38:06,888 --> 00:38:09,671

你絕對不會想要Southwest航空上坐C的位置

 

487

00:38:09,706 --> 00:38:13,781

特別是當你帶了兩個大袋子要給女兒的時候

 

488

00:38:13,816 --> 00:38:17,183

還有東西你想要放在頭上的位置上,而不是底下的位置

 

489

00:38:17,218 --> 00:38:18,906

特別是這樣的時候你根本就不想是B,你想要是A

 

490

00:38:19,562 --> 00:38:24,481

沒問題,我很酷,所以我用了Southwest的電子機票

 

491

00:38:24,516 --> 00:38:28,287

而且我在起飛前95分鐘就到了BWI機場

 

492

00:38:28,322 --> 00:38:30,736

因為我想要坐A的位置,沒人想要坐B

 

493

00:38:31,739 --> 00:38:35,561

所以,我到了Southwest的電子機票機前,插入我的VISA

 

494

00:38:35,596 --> 00:38:38,569

我的機票出來了,上面竟然寫著B

 

495

00:38:39,465 --> 00:38:46,536

我說:媽的,這東西被動過手腳,有問題,比賭城還糟糕!

 

496

00:38:46,571 --> 00:38:49,039

我絕不可能拿到B

 

497

00:38:49,074 --> 00:38:53,305

我在起飛前95分鐘就到了,我絕不可能拿到B

 

498

00:38:57,305 --> 00:39:00,448

當我拿著我的肉桂麵包,站在B的隊伍中時

 

499

00:39:00,483 --> 00:39:03,832

呼,我有夠生氣的!

 

500

00:39:05,639 --> 00:39:09,350

我站在B的隊伍裡面不爽了一小時

 

401

00:31:33,714 --> 00:31:37,712

and shipping them to you and collecting the money on behalves of UPS.

 

402

00:31:37,747 --> 00:31:40,025

See the Pappa John’s pizza truck go by.

 

403

00:31:41,025 --> 00:31:42,050

Guess who’s driving?

 

404

00:31:43,485 --> 00:31:47,161

Say it with me now: someone in funny brown shorts!

 

405

00:31:47,196 --> 00:31:55,795

Because Pappa John has in-sourced the delivery of their dough from the bakery to their outlets to UPS.

 

406

00:31:55,830 --> 00:31:58,010

So this is a whole new form of collaboration.

 

407

00:31:58,045 --> 00:32:02,609

It requires more micro you get a huge amount of  standardization and, as a result, you’e going to be a huge flattener over time.

 

408

00:32:02,644 --> 00:32:06,166

There are hundred, probably thousand companies today

 

409

00:32:06,201 --> 00:32:11,530

that no longer touches any of their products.

 

410

00:32:11,565 --> 00:32:17,529

They are nothing but marketing shelves, who have in-sourced, basically their inners, to UPS.

 

411 00:32:18,290 --> 00:32:22,498

The sixth and the last new form of collaboration, I called ‘informing’.

 

412

00:32:22,533 --> 00:32:25,241

Informing, and that is my name for Google.

 

413

00:32:25,276 --> 00:32:27,713

That is my name for search

 

414

00:32:27,748 --> 00:32:33,873

because I can now inform myself, I can collaborate with data all by myself.

 

415

00:32:34,585 --> 00:32:37,673

TIVO is a form of informing for entertainment

 

416

00:32:37,708 --> 00:32:41,513

and informing is a powerful new form of collaboration.

 

417

00:32:41,514 --> 00:32:47,344

So just to review. We have the first three, they’ve created this platform for multiple forms of collaboration,

 

418

00:32:47,379 --> 00:32:55,215

then we have the next six new forms of collaboration: out-sourcing, off-shoring, open-sourcing, supply-chaining, in-sourcing and informing.

 

419

00:32:55,250 --> 00:32:56,593

That’s nine.

 

420

00:32:56,628 --> 00:32:58,922

What’s the tenth? I said, “There are ten.”

 

421

00:32:59,841 --> 00:33:03,994

I argue in the book, that the tenth, I simply called ‘the steroids’,

 

422

00:33:04,029 --> 00:33:11,010

and the steroids are wireless voice over the Internet and file sharing.

 

423

00:33:11,907 --> 00:33:14,042

And what these steroids are doing

 

424

00:33:14,077 --> 00:33:19,289

is now turbo-charging all six of these new form of collaboration,

 

425

00:33:19,892 --> 00:33:27,002

so I can now do anyone from anywhere with any device, totally mobile.

 

426

00:33:27,818 --> 00:33:33,865

So, that’s the 2nd chapter, and that’s the argument about what I considered to be the 10 forces that flattened the world.

 

427

00:33:34,546 --> 00:33:39,769

Now, the third chapter and I will stop. After these trials to tie together these base arguments.

 

428

00:33:40,506 --> 00:33:42,403

The third chapter is called ‘The Triple Convergences.’

 

429

00:33:42,438 --> 00:33:45,856

So basically what I argue is that sometime around the year 2000

 

430 00:33:45,891 --> 00:33:52,963

there were three huge convergences which all came together to really shape the brief history of the 21st century.

 

431

00:33:52,998 --> 00:33:58,197

The first convergence, I would argue, is all ten of these flatteners converged,

 

432

00:33:58,232 --> 00:33:59,707

right around the year 2000,

 

433

00:33:59,742 --> 00:34:06,634

converged into a tipping point with a complementarity between them. All started to work together.

 

434

00:34:06,669 --> 00:34:11,651

So the informing helped the out-sourcing, the out-sourcing help the off-shoring.

 

435

00:34:11,686 --> 00:34:19,883

The open-sourcing drove the in-sourcing. All the complementarities between these ten flatteners started to work together,

 

436 00:34:20,874 --> 00:34:22,354

and when they did,

 

437

00:34:23,130 --> 00:34:25,458

they created the flat world.

 

438

00:34:25,493 --> 00:34:27,067

What do I mean by the flat world?

 

439

00:34:27,102 --> 00:34:40,979

They created a global web-enabled platform for multiple forms of sharing knowledge and work, irrespective of time, distance, geography or even, increasingly, language.

 

440

00:34:41,014 --> 00:34:43,612

That’s what I mean when I say ‘the world is flat’.

 

441

00:34:43,647 --> 00:34:49,882

I mean we have created a global, web-enabled platform for multiple forms of sharing knowledge and work,

 

442

00:34:49,917 --> 00:34:55,898

irrespective of time, distance, geography, and, increasingly, even language.

 

443

00:34:55,933 --> 00:34:58,181

And I believe that platform.

 

444

00:34:58,216 --> 00:35:05,667

If you think about that platform, you can explain more things about what’s happening in the world today

 

445

00:35:05,702 --> 00:35:09,290

than with any other framework.

 

446

00:35:09,325 --> 00:35:14,154

You can explain the rise in energy, and you can explain the rise in out-sourcing,

 

447

00:35:14,189 --> 00:35:18,338

or you can explain MIT’S Open Course.

 

448

00:35:20,618 --> 00:35:23,561

And you can explain 911 and Al-Qaeda.

 

449

00:35:24,226 --> 00:35:31,025

So, that first convergence is what flattened the world by producing this new platform

 

450

00:35:31,060 --> 00:35:33,864

that more people than ever can plug and play on.

 

451

00:35:34,560 --> 00:35:38,328

The 2nd convergence is that we’re just at the  beginning of this

 

452

00:35:38,363 --> 00:35:42,088

is that we all having to learn to horizontalize ourselves,

 

453

00:35:42,123 --> 00:35:47,216

i.e. we’re all having to learn to adapt our business processes, our study habits,

 

454

00:35:47,251 --> 00:35:51,567

our innovative approaches to this new platform.

 

455

00:35:51,602 --> 00:35:57,664

Coz we’re going from a world where values were created in vertical silos largely of command and control,

 

456

00:35:57,699 --> 00:36:03,873

to a world where the values would be created increasing horizontally by who you connect and collaborate with.

 

457

00:36:03,908 --> 00:36:08,729

We’re just at the beginning of making all these changes from vertical to horizontal.

 

458

00:36:09,346 --> 00:36:11,272

Now, the best way to understanding this is, I think…

 

459

00:36:11,307 --> 00:36:16,202

Paul David, a Stanford economics had a remarkable essay,

 

460

00:36:16,237 --> 00:36:18,195

I’m sure many of you have to read, on electrification.

 

461

00:36:18,196 --> 00:36:23,347

And he asked a question: why was when electricity first appeared, we didn’t get a productivity boost.

 

462

00:36:23,348 --> 00:36:25,412

And the answer that he’s looked into was

 

463

00:36:25,447 --> 00:36:29,867

because to get the actual productivity boost from electric motors replacing steam engines,

 

464

00:36:29,902 --> 00:36:31,940

we had to first redesign buildings:

 

465

00:36:31,975 --> 00:36:36,204

from tall multistory buildings that could accommodate big steam engines with their pulleys,

 

466

00:36:36,239 --> 00:36:42,134

To small and lower long buildings that with a factory could operate small electric motors.

 

467

00:36:42,169 --> 00:36:45,639

And the managers had to adapt their management practices.

 

468

00:36:45,674 --> 00:36:48,448

After architects adapted the way that buildings are looked,

 

469

00:36:48,483 --> 00:36:52,391

and then shop floor stewards had to adapt how they manage the shop floor.

 

470

00:36:52,426 --> 00:36:56,996

So there were a million different habits and structures that had to change.

 

471

00:36:57,031 --> 00:37:00,339

And, boom, once they changed at a tipping point,

 

472

00:37:00,374 --> 00:37:04,827

then we really got the productivity boost from the electrification.

 

473

00:37:04,862 --> 00:37:14,549

I would argue we’re just at the beginning of doing the same thing with this horizontal platform.  We’re just at the beginning of changing our habits- horizontalizing ourselves.

 

474

00:37:15,526 --> 00:37:19,813

I keep discovering it in a very personal way, when I was working on the book.

 

475

00:37:19,848 --> 00:37:22,293

I live in Bethesda in Maryland.

 

476

00:37:22,328 --> 00:37:26,989

And my daughter, my oldest daughter was a sophomore goes to a school in New Haven, Connecticut.

 

477

00:37:27,024 --> 00:37:29,622

I was going to visit her last March.

 

478

00:37:29,657 --> 00:37:36,055

It’s a complete pain in the behind to go from the Bethesda, Maryland to New Haven, Connecticut.

 

479

00:37:36,090 --> 00:37:40,822

You have to drive from Bethesda to BWI airport in Baltimore,

 

480

00:37:40,857 --> 00:37:44,622

take Southwest Aairline from Baltimore to Hartford,

 

481

00:37:44,657 --> 00:37:47,688

and then drive from Hartford for an hour to New Haven.

 

482

00:37:47,723 --> 00:37:52,233

I promised to going up last spring, taking two bags of spring clothes for my daughter

 

483

00:37:54,869 --> 00:37:57,929

and I was go on Southwest.

 

484

00:37:57,964 --> 00:38:01,954

I know you may not have flown on Southwest, but you may know on Southwest, you don’t get a reserved seat.

 

485

00:38:01,989 --> 00:38:06,096

You just get a ticket and says A, B or C.

 

486

00:38:06,888 --> 00:38:09,671

You do not want to be a C on Southwest Airline.

 

487

00:38:09,706 --> 00:38:13,781

Especially if you bring 2 bags to your daughter

 

488

00:38:13,816 --> 00:38:17,183

of the stuff that you want room above the seat, not get stuck in the middle.

 

489

00:38:17,218 --> 00:38:18,906

You won’t want to be a B, you wanna be A.

 

490

00:38:19,562 --> 00:38:24,481

No problem, I am a hip guy, so I did the e-ticket thing on Southwest.

 

491

00:38:24,516 --> 00:38:28,287

And I got to BWI airport 95 minutes before my flight,

 

492

00:38:28,322 --> 00:38:30,736

coz I wanna be an A. No one’s  gonna be B.

 

493

00:38:31,739 --> 00:38:35,561

So, I got to the Southwest Airline machine, stuck in my visa card and out came my ticket.

 

494

00:38:35,596 --> 00:38:38,569

And it said B.

 

495

00:38:39,465 --> 00:38:46,536

I said, son of a ___!! This thing is fixed! This is rig! This is worse than Las Vegas!

 

496

00:38:46,571 --> 00:38:49,039

There is no way I am a B!

 

497

00:38:49,074 --> 00:38:53,305

I am here 95 minutes before this flight , there’s no way I am a B!

 

498

00:38:57,305 --> 00:39:00,448

When I get my cinnabon, and stood in the back of the B line,

 

499

00:39:00,483 --> 00:39:03,832

woo, I’m mad.

 

500

00:39:05,639 --> 00:39:09,350

Well I stood at the back of the B line for an hour.

 

 

501

00:39:10,413 --> 00:39:11,975

然後他們開始登機了

 

502

00:39:12,887 --> 00:39:14,504

然後我看見了

 

503

00:39:14,539 --> 00:39:25,544

所有的A登機時都拿著我看起來像是家裡印表機印出來的皺紙

 

504

00:39:26,305 --> 00:39:36,884

原來這些傢伙都在前一天晚上12:01

在家裡下載並且印出了自己的登機牌和條碼

 

505

00:39:36,919 --> 00:39:41,358

我不知道的是,多謝那第一次的技術匯流

 

506

00:39:41,393 --> 00:39:50,653

Southwest開始了一個新的計畫,讓所有的客戶

可以在前一天晚上12:01下載並印出自己的機票

 

507

00:39:50,688 --> 00:39:55,238

喔,各位,我看著那樣子,我對自己說:

Friedman,你實在太落伍了

 

508

00:39:57,812 --> 00:40:00,941

你實在是屬於全球化2.0

 

509

00:40:00,976 --> 00:40:05,610

但你想想看,在全球化1.0的時候,有旅行社的存在

(譯者註:是2.0,講者口誤)

 

510

00:40:05,645 --> 00:40:10,497

你可以去華盛頓的Kate街,抽一個號碼牌,面前有個真人

 

511

00:40:10,532 --> 00:40:12,563

然後電子機票的機器出現了

 

512

00:40:12,598 --> 00:40:14,195

我們覺得那就很酷了

 

513

00:40:15,428 --> 00:40:17,098

然後,當諸位還在沈睡的時候

 

514

00:40:17,875 --> 00:40:25,282

Southwest讓你成為替自己處理票務的人

 

515

00:40:26,122 --> 00:40:29,770

抱歉喔各位,從另一個角度來看,

 

516

00:40:29,805 --> 00:40:33,714

Southwest航空讓你成為他們的員工

 

517

00:40:35,009 --> 00:40:36,820

我還必須再請各位注意

 

518

00:40:37,053 --> 00:40:45,070

如果你珍惜自己的時間,在前一天12:01下載機票

你等於是付錢給Southwest航空讓你當職員

 

519

00:40:48,130 --> 00:40:52,482

這一切就這麼發生了

 

520

00:40:52,738 --> 00:41:00,480

我之前所說的匯聚,讓Southwest航空可以作到這件事

 

521

00:41:00,515 --> 00:41:04,009

我沒做到的則是把自己水平化

 

522

00:41:04,044 --> 00:41:08,832

我還是垂直的跟Southwest互動

 

523

00:41:08,867 --> 00:41:12,385

我是那個去用電子機票機的笨蛋

 

524

00:41:14,089 --> 00:41:16,343

而不是在家聰明下載機票的人

 

525

00:41:16,378 --> 00:41:18,856

所以,下次,下次

 

526

00:41:18,891 --> 00:41:22,641

我會在前一天12:01上線

 

527

00:41:22,676 --> 00:41:28,362

我會上網替Southwest工作,

我會下載我自己的機票和條碼

 

528

00:41:28,921 --> 00:41:33,530

我只需要在起飛前35分鐘抵達BWI機場

 

529

00:41:34,401 --> 00:41:39,985

而不是95分鐘之前,我可以獲得60分鐘的生產力

 

530

00:41:41,345 --> 00:41:45,952

所有讓我可以獲得這60分鐘生產力的改變

 

531

00:41:45,987 --> 00:41:51,802

都只不過是我們改變習慣、改變商業流程的剛開始而已

 

532

00:41:51,837 --> 00:41:55,123

這一切都是為了我所謂的讓自己水平化

 

533

00:41:55,158 --> 00:41:59,194

這就是我所謂的第二次匯集,而我們正在它的剛開始

 

534

00:41:59,229 --> 00:42:02,821

第三次的匯集非常簡單,正當世界變得平坦時

 

535

00:42:02,856 --> 00:42:07,277

正當我們完成可以分配和分享各種工作與知識的平台時

 

536

00:42:07,312 --> 00:42:11,119

正當我們開始改變我們的商業流程時,發生了什麼事情?

 

537

00:42:11,154 --> 00:42:17,053

三個巨大的經濟體,印度、中國和前蘇聯開放了

 

538

00:42:17,798 --> 00:42:23,814

三十億人類原先處身競賽之外,現在都登上了舞台

 

539

00:42:23,849 --> 00:42:27,592

他們是什麼時候登場的呢?正當世界變得平坦時

 

540

00:42:27,627 --> 00:42:30,999

正當他們可以隨時連上網路,競爭和合作時

 

541

00:42:31,085 --> 00:42:36,665

對象是你我的子女,

而且是有史以來效率更高、更便宜的時候

 

542

00:42:36,700 --> 00:42:43,367

是的,我知道,

在那三十億中只有十分之一能夠隨時連上網路

 

543

00:42:43,402 --> 00:42:47,990

三十億的十分之一是多少?是三億人

 

544

00:42:48,025 --> 00:42:51,295

正好是美國工作人力的兩倍

 

545

00:42:52,371 --> 00:42:54,547

本書的看法很簡單

 

546

00:42:54,582 --> 00:43:01,481

這十個夷平機制、改變中的商業流程和這三億新玩家

 

547

00:43:01,516 --> 00:43:05,905

他們將塑造整個二十一世紀的簡短歷史

 

548

00:43:05,940 --> 00:43:09,587

在我結束之前,讓我指出最後一件事情

 

549

00:43:09,622 --> 00:43:10,946

最後一個巧合

 

550

00:43:11,556 --> 00:43:13,720

這個巨大的事件

 

551

00:43:13,755 --> 00:43:19,896

我認為這三個趨勢的匯流,隨著時間的流逝,將會改變一切

 

552

00:43:20,416 --> 00:43:22,743

我們從垂直變得水平

 

553

00:43:22,778 --> 00:43:27,777

我想得要隨著時間的過去,才會看到真正的結果

 

554

00:43:27,812 --> 00:43:31,323

這會是一切的轉捩點

 

555

00:43:31,358 --> 00:43:36,562

這將會和古騰堡、以及印刷出版一樣關鍵

 

556

00:43:37,736 --> 00:43:42,346

而正當我們遭遇到這個驚人的轉捩點時

 

557

00:43:43,633 --> 00:43:49,136

它完全被我所謂的政治完美風暴給遮蔽住了

 

558

00:43:49,784 --> 00:43:55,679

而這完美風暴是911事件、安隆事件和網路泡沫化

 

559

00:43:56,291 --> 00:44:01,392

911事件讓我們全國上從總統,下至記者全都分了心

 

560

00:44:01,427 --> 00:44:03,129

我們全都轉去注意別的地方了

 

561

00:44:03,164 --> 00:44:06,970

安隆事件讓所有的總裁在證明無辜之前都是嫌疑犯

 

562

00:44:07,005 --> 00:44:08,675

誰會想要替他們著想?

 

563

00:44:08,710 --> 00:44:14,154

我們當然更不會替他們想要如何幫忙

才能讓他們更有效率的在新世界合作與競爭

 

564

00:44:14,189 --> 00:44:20,514

他們會需要什麼樣的租稅減免或是不同的智財權和著作權法律

 

565

00:44:21,674 --> 00:44:25,649

當然,網路泡沫化讓很多人變得真的很笨

 

566

00:44:25,684 --> 00:44:28,098

讓他們以為全球化已經結束了

 

567

00:44:28,955 --> 00:44:31,200

事實上,全球化根本是被超頻在進行

 

568

00:44:33,089 --> 00:44:35,593

正當世界變平的時候

 

569

00:44:37,743 --> 00:44:40,201

我們竟然完全看錯方向

 

570

00:44:40,236 --> 00:44:44,071

寫作這本書的經驗真的很獨特

 

571

00:44:44,547 --> 00:44:48,544

當我四處訪問這些執行長、科技長、資訊長的時候

 

572

00:44:48,579 --> 00:44:51,784

他們就像是瘋狂科學家一樣

 

573

00:44:51,819 --> 00:44:55,135

他們就像是科幻電影中的瘋狂科學家一樣

 

574

00:44:55,170 --> 00:44:58,199

他們全都知道這秘密

 

575

00:44:58,234 --> 00:45:00,357

而且正緊鑼密鼓的進行

 

576

00:45:00,392 --> 00:45:04,127

他們全都知道在發生些什麼,我所知道的幾乎都是他們告訴我的

 

577

00:45:04,758 --> 00:45:07,494

他們都知道發生了什麼事情

 

578

00:45:07,529 --> 00:45:11,171

但卻沒人告訴孩子們!

 

579

00:45:13,900 --> 00:45:16,900

沒人告訴孩子真相

 

580

00:45:17,566 --> 00:45:19,374

我們剛結束一場選舉

 

581

00:45:19,409 --> 00:45:22,462

正身處在這三個機緣巧合的匯流中

 

582

00:45:22,973 --> 00:45:26,916

民主黨人在吵著北美貿易自由協定是不是個好主意

 

583

00:45:27,644 --> 00:45:34,715

而共和黨人則是把白宮首席經濟學家Greg Mankiw的嘴巴用膠帶貼起來

 

584

00:45:34,750 --> 00:45:37,387

因為他說外包很合理

 

585

00:45:37,422 --> 00:45:41,797

而他們把他關在副總統Dick Chenny的地下室裡

 

586

00:45:45,277 --> 00:45:51,325

再也不讓任何人發現他,有人最近看過這傢伙嗎?

 

587

00:45:54,788 --> 00:46:01,181

正當我們到了一個需要眾多改變才會抵達的關鍵轉捩點時

 

588

00:46:02,404 --> 00:46:04,189

卻沒人告訴孩子們

 

589

00:46:05,741 --> 00:46:09,764

所以,我寫這本書,是希望至少告訴兩個孩子

 

590

00:46:10,347 --> 00:46:11,778

Orly Natalie Friedman

 

591

00:46:12,923 --> 00:46:15,084

他們未來長大的世界會是什麼樣子

 

592

00:46:16,052 --> 00:46:17,886

原先的世界,我經常聽到

 

593

00:46:17,921 --> 00:46:20,087

當我在Minneapolis長大時,我父母會對我說

 

594

00:46:20,662 --> 00:46:23,210

Tom吃完你的晚餐,印度和中國的人們正在挨餓

 

595

00:46:24,285 --> 00:46:26,540

我會跟我的女兒們說:女兒,做完你的作業

 

596

00:46:26,575 --> 00:46:30,196

因為印度和中國的人們正飢渴的要跟你搶工作

 

597

00:46:30,231 --> 00:46:34,036

而在一個平坦的世界中,他們是搶的到的

 

598

00:46:34,071 --> 00:46:37,923

已經不再有所謂的美國人的工作了

 

599

00:46:39,291 --> 00:46:46,919

讓我在此以HP的前總裁Carly Fiorina在丟掉工作之前的睿智看法作結

 

600

00:46:48,623 --> 00:46:50,639

Carly事實上很清楚這狀況

 

501

00:39:10,413 --> 00:39:11,975

Then they called the flight

 

502

00:39:12,887 --> 00:39:14,504

and then I saw it.

 

503

00:39:14,539 --> 00:39:25,544

All the As seem to be getting on kept what look to me  like crumpled pieces of white home printer paper

 

504

00:39:26,305 --> 00:39:36,884

as though they had downloaded and printed it out at home their own bar codes and boarding passes at 12:01a.m. the night before!

 

505

00:39:36,919 --> 00:39:41,358

Well, what I didn’t know is, thanks to the first convergence,

 

506

00:39:41,393 --> 00:39:50,653

Southwest Airline has begun a program where all their customers could download and print out their own boarding passes at 12:01 AM the night before.

 

507

00:39:50,688 --> 00:39:55,238

Oh, friends, I looked at that and I said, “Friedman, you are an old 20th century.

 

508

00:39:57,812 --> 00:40:00,941

You are so globalization 2.0.”

 

509

00:40:00,976 --> 00:40:05,610

I mean, really, but think about it in globalization 1.0, there was a ticket agency.

 

510

00:40:05,645 --> 00:40:10,497

We were supposed to go down the Kate St. in Washington, pull a number stamp  there’s  a physical person standing in front of you.

 

511

00:40:10,532 --> 00:40:12,563

Then it was e-ticket machine.

 

512

00:40:12,598 --> 00:40:14,195

We thought that was cool.

 

513

00:40:15,428 --> 00:40:17,098

And then while you were sleeping, while you were sleeping,

 

514

00:40:17,875 --> 00:40:25,282

Southwest Airline made you the individual your own ticket agent.

 

515

00:40:26,122 --> 00:40:29,770

And excuse me, another way to look at it,

 

516

00:40:29,805 --> 00:40:33,714

the Southwest Airline made you their employee.

 

517

00:40:35,009 --> 00:40:36,820

And excuse me one more time,

 

518

00:40:37,053 --> 00:40:45,070

if you value your time that before 12:01 that night before, you are paying Southwest Airlines to be their employee.

 

519

00:40:48,130 --> 00:40:52,482

That just happened.

 

520

00:40:52,738 --> 00:41:00,480

And that convergence made possible what Southwest Airlines did.

 

521

00:41:00,515 --> 00:41:04,009

And what I hadn't done was horizontalize myself.

 

522

00:41:04,044 --> 00:41:08,832

I was still interacting with Southwest Airlines vertically.

 

523

00:41:08,867 --> 00:41:12,385

I was the moron going up to the e-ticket machine,

 

524

00:41:14,089 --> 00:41:16,343

not the person downloading ticket at home.

 

525

00:41:16,378 --> 00:41:18,856

So next time around, next time around,

 

526

00:41:18,891 --> 00:41:22,641

I will go online at 12:01 that night before.

 

527

00:41:22,676 --> 00:41:28,362

I will go to work for Southwest Airlines. I will download as an individual my own boarding pass and bar code.

 

528

00:41:28,921 --> 00:41:33,530

And I will arrive at BWI airport 35 minutes before the flight,

 

529

00:41:34,401 --> 00:41:39,985

not 95, and I will capture 60 minutes of productivity.

 

530

00:41:41,345 --> 00:41:45,952

All the changes that will be involved that me captured in those 60 minutes.

 

531

00:41:45,987 --> 00:41:51,802

We are just at the beginning of a million changes in our habits and business processes around

 

532

00:41:51,837 --> 00:41:55,123

that I call horizontalizing ourselves.

 

533

00:41:55,158 --> 00:41:59,194

That is the second convergence. We say we're just at the beginning  of it.

 

534

00:41:59,229 --> 00:42:02,821

The third convergence is very simple. Just when the world went flat,

 

535

00:42:02,856 --> 00:42:07,277

it’s only created that platform for multiple forms of sharing knowledge and work

 

536

00:42:07,312 --> 00:42:11,119

just when we started to adapt our business processes, what happens?

 

537

00:42:11,154 --> 00:42:17,053

Three huge economies called India, China and the former Soviet empire opened up.

 

538

00:42:17,798 --> 00:42:23,814

And three billion people who are out of the game walk on to the playing field.

 

539

00:42:23,849 --> 00:42:27,592

And when do they arrive? Just when the world has been flattened.

 

540

00:42:27,627 --> 00:42:30,999

Just when then can plug and play, compete, connect and collaborate

 

541

00:42:31,085 --> 00:42:36,665

with your kids and mine, more efficiently, cheaply and effectively than ever before in the history of the planet.

 

542

00:42:36,700 --> 00:42:43,367

Yes, I know, it's ten percent of those, only ten percent of those three billions who can really plug and play.

 

543

00:42:43,402 --> 00:42:47,990

Ten percent of three billion zero carry the one. That's three hundred million people.

 

544

00:42:48,025 --> 00:42:51,295

That's exactly twice the size of the American work force

 

545

00:42:52,371 --> 00:42:54,547

It's the simple argument of this book

 

546

00:42:54,582 --> 00:43:01,481

that it is the convergence of these ten flatteners with these new business processes with the three billion new players

 

547

00:43:01,516 --> 00:43:05,905

that is going to shape the brief history of the 21st century

548

00:43:05,940 --> 00:43:09,587

Now before I end, let me just point out one last thing,

 

549

00:43:09,622 --> 00:43:10,946

one last coincidence,

 

550

00:43:11,556 --> 00:43:13,720

this huge event, this

 

551

00:43:13,755 --> 00:43:19,896

what I, this triple convergence, for that I think, over time, is going to change everything.

 

552

00:43:20,416 --> 00:43:22,743

We are going from vertical to horizontal.

 

553

00:43:22,778 --> 00:43:27,777

I think this is gonna to be seen in time.

 

554

00:43:27,812 --> 00:43:31,323

And it will take time to play out as the mother of all inflection points.

 

555

00:43:31,358 --> 00:43:36,562

This is gonna be as big as Gutenberg and the printing press.

 

556

00:43:37,736 --> 00:43:42,346

And just when we reach this incredible inflection point,

 

557

00:43:43,633 --> 00:43:49,136

it gets completely disguised by what I would call a political perfect storm.

 

558

00:43:49,784 --> 00:43:55,679

And that political perfect storm is 9.11, Enron and the .com bust.

 

559

00:43:56,291 --> 00:44:01,392

9.11 completely distracts us, from a country from the President on down to the reporters, Ok?

 

560

00:44:01,427 --> 00:44:03,129

We all focused somewhere else.

 

561

00:44:03,164 --> 00:44:06,970

Enron made every CEO guilty until proven innocent.

 

562

00:44:07,005 --> 00:44:08,675

Who wants to talk to them?

 

563

00:44:08,710 --> 00:44:14,154

Little on think about what they might need to actually compete and collaborate more effectively in this world,

 

564

00:44:14,189 --> 00:44:20,514

what they might need by way of taxes incentives to different copy right and intellectual property laws?

 

565

00:44:21,674 --> 00:44:25,649

And of course, the .com bust made a lot of people really silly.

 

566

00:44:25,684 --> 00:44:28,098

It made them think the globalization was over.

 

567

00:44:28,955 --> 00:44:31,200

But in fact, it was just been turbocharged.

 

568

00:44:33,089 --> 00:44:35,593

So right when the world got flat,

 

569

00:44:37,743 --> 00:44:40,201

we are looking totally the other way.

 

570

00:44:40,236 --> 00:44:44,071

So doing this book was really a strange experience

 

571

00:44:44,547 --> 00:44:48,544

coz I would go around and interview all the CIOs and CTOs and CEOs

 

572

00:44:48,579 --> 00:44:51,784

And they are, they are like pot people.

 

573

00:44:51,819 --> 00:44:55,135

They are like pot people in a science fiction movie.

 

574

00:44:55,170 --> 00:44:58,199

They all know the secret

 

575

00:44:58,234 --> 00:45:00,357

They are doing it like crazy.

 

576

00:45:00,392 --> 00:45:04,127

They all know what's going on. Everything I learned, I learned from them.

 

577

00:45:04,758 --> 00:45:07,494

They all know what's going on

 

578

00:45:07,529 --> 00:45:11,171

but nobody's told the kids!

 

579

00:45:13,900 --> 00:45:16,900

Nobody's told the kids!

 

580

00:45:17,566 --> 00:45:19,374

So we just had an election

 

581

00:45:19,409 --> 00:45:22,462

right at the middle of this triple convergence,

 

582

00:45:22,973 --> 00:45:26,916

with the Democrats were debating whether NAFTA was a good idea,

 

583

00:45:27,644 --> 00:45:34,715

and the Republicans put duck tape over the mouth of Chief White House economist Greg Mankiw

 

584

00:45:34,750 --> 00:45:37,387

when he said outsourcing makes a lot of sense.

 

585

00:45:37,422 --> 00:45:41,797

And they stashed him in Dick Cheney's basement,

 

586

00:45:45,277 --> 00:45:51,325

never to be heard from again. Has anybody seen Greg Mankiw?

 

587

00:45:54,788 --> 00:46:01,181

So right when we have reached a fundamental inflection point, that's gonna require a lot of change,

 

588

00:46:02,404 --> 00:46:04,189

nobody's told the kids.

 

589

00:46:05,741 --> 00:46:09,764

So I wrote this book to tell at least two kids,

 

590

00:46:10,347 --> 00:46:11,778

Orly and Natalie Friedman:

 

591

00:46:12,923 --> 00:46:15,084

“What world I think they are gonna grow up in?”

 

592

00:46:16,052 --> 00:46:17,886

And it's a world I said many times…

 

593

00:46:17,921 --> 00:46:20,087

When I was growing up in Minneapolis, my parents said to me

 

594

00:46:20,662 --> 00:46:23,210

"Tom, finish your dinner. People in India and China are starving."

 

595

00:46:24,285 --> 00:46:26,540

And I tell my girls, "Girls, finish your homework,

596

00:46:26,575 --> 00:46:30,196

because people in China and India are starving for your jobs.”

 

597

00:46:30,231 --> 00:46:34,036

And in a flat world, they can have them.

 

598

00:46:34,071 --> 00:46:37,923

There is no such thing as an American job any more.

 

599

00:46:39,291 --> 00:46:46,919

So let me simply conclude with an insight that was parted to me by Carly Fiorina form HP before she lost her job.

 

600

00:46:48,623 --> 00:46:50,639

Carly got all these actually

 

 

601

00:46:50,674 --> 00:46:55,898

我不知道她在商業上的表現,但她真的很聰明

 

602

00:46:55,933 --> 00:47:03,169

她說:Tom,你知道嗎,

所有我們過去二十年稱為IT革命,資訊科技革命的東西...

 

603

00:47:03,204 --> 00:47:07,831

很抱歉必須告訴你,那只是暖身而已

 

604

00:47:07,866 --> 00:47:17,169

那只是在這個平台上鑄造、磨練、和傳遞那些新的合作工具而已

 

605

00:47:17,811 --> 00:47:20,346

我們現在不過只是開始階段的尾聲而已

 

606

00:47:20,987 --> 00:47:22,707

你現在即將看到的是

 

607

00:47:22,742 --> 00:47:26,491

真正的IT革命

 

608

00:47:27,322 --> 00:47:33,849

所以,諸位,綁好安全帶,豎直椅背,收起你的餐桌

 

609

00:47:34,872 --> 00:47:37,737

因為這個世界是平坦的

 

610

00:47:37,772 --> 00:47:38,706

謝謝各位!

 

611

00:47:38,741 --> 00:47:41,025

謝謝各位!

 

612

00:48:05,124 --> 00:48:10,313

我知道我們還有時間提問,如果可能的話,我想請學生優先

 

613

00:48:10,348 --> 00:48:12,043

如果你是學生,你可以...你!

 

614

00:48:13,300 --> 00:48:21,223

問:像是非洲的一樣國家....

Tom:如何用這套系統來解釋?

 

615

00:48:21,258 --> 00:48:22,368

這是個很重要的問題

 

616

00:48:22,403 --> 00:48:25,935

喔,各位,剛剛的問題是我之後會不會有簽名的活動

 

617

00:48:26,951 --> 00:48:30,543

答案是有的,太感謝你發問了!

 

618

00:48:34,159 --> 00:48:39,415

非洲要在這個系統中扮演什麼角色?所有的低度發展國家又如何?

 

619

00:48:41,220 --> 00:48:43,434

這本書有兩個大段落,我剛剛所說的只是第一部份

 

620

00:48:43,469 --> 00:48:49,445

第一段落是這對美國的意義,

第二段落是這對發展中國家和地緣政治的意義

 

621

00:48:52,576 --> 00:48:57,614

我簡單說一下描述發展中國家的章節,我會盡快一點回答你的問題

 

622

00:48:57,649 --> 00:48:59,663

首先的章節名稱叫Guadalupe的聖女

 

623

00:49:00,416 --> 00:49:07,960

當我在作這本書的研究時,我基本上是世界各地到處飛,

並且問大家一個問題:當你發現世界是平的時候,你人在哪裡?

 

624

00:49:08,673 --> 00:49:11,266

人們的回答總是很有趣

 

625

00:49:11,301 --> 00:49:16,993

我當時在墨西哥,正在和當地中央銀行的朋友請教

 

626

00:49:17,028 --> 00:49:22,138

我想是在墨西哥,應該是中央銀行

 

627

00:49:22,173 --> 00:49:26,676

他們說:我們去年發現世界是平的

 

628

00:49:26,711 --> 00:49:30,629

我們的護國聖女,也就是「Virgin of Guadalupe

 

629

00:49:30,664 --> 00:49:37,549

去年的時候我們發現,所有護國聖女的雕像都是從中國運來的

 

630

00:49:38,750 --> 00:49:41,888

當你是個低薪資的發展中國家時

 

631

00:49:41,923 --> 00:49:45,384

而你的護國聖女雕像竟然是從中國進口的

 

632

00:49:47,192 --> 00:49:48,377

世界真的是平的

 

633

00:49:50,088 --> 00:49:54,057

我想要說的重點,很嚴肅的重點是

 

634

00:49:54,092 --> 00:49:59,424

我和埃及的一個朋友討論,提到了他們傳統的齋戒月油燈

 

635

00:49:59,459 --> 00:50:02,259

孩子們會拿著這些齋戒月油燈在齋戒月四處走動

 

636

00:50:02,738 --> 00:50:09,682

這個有幾千年傳統的油燈,現在都是從中國進口的

 

637

00:50:09,717 --> 00:50:12,985

裡面還有個晶片會播放最新的埃及民歌

 

638

00:50:14,392 --> 00:50:21,153

當世界變平的時候,你的國家平坦度與其他國家若是稍有不同

 

639

00:50:21,188 --> 00:50:25,937

可以把在我國邊境的墨西哥帶到千里之遙以外

 

640

00:50:25,972 --> 00:50:31,000

而會把數千哩以外的中國一下子帶到我國邊境來

 

641

00:50:31,035 --> 00:50:33,977

我在那個段落中講的內容主要是

 

642

00:50:34,012 --> 00:50:38,437

我認為,90年代主要有關的是重整批發

 

643

00:50:38,472 --> 00:50:45,620

巨觀的經濟改革,開放國內的經濟等等

 

644

00:50:45,655 --> 00:50:53,218

90年代主要是重整批發,

但我認為2000年代將會是以重整零售為主

 

645

00:50:53,763 --> 00:50:56,389

有關如何真正開始一門生意

 

646

00:50:56,424 --> 00:51:00,421

世界銀行有一篇叫做「在2000年做生意」的調查

 

647

00:51:00,456 --> 00:51:04,381

他們實際上調查了一百多個國家、五大類別

 

648

00:51:04,416 --> 00:51:08,095

五個問題是

 

649

00:51:08,130 --> 00:51:11,054

獲得執照開業要多久?

 

650

00:51:11,089 --> 00:51:15,262

三天還是一百八十天,要花多少錢?

 

651

00:51:15,297 --> 00:51:18,438

聘僱和開除人員有多容易

 

652

00:51:18,473 --> 00:51:20,935

募集資金有多容易

 

653

00:51:20,970 --> 00:51:26,919

要解決商業爭議的法律判決要多久,有多貴?

 

654

00:51:26,954 --> 00:51:29,031

要破產有多容易?

 

655

00:51:29,066 --> 00:51:34,936

也就是有多容易把不流通的資產重新活化

 

656

00:51:34,971 --> 00:51:38,278

它作了極為完整的分析,

如果你還沒看過,那是非常有趣的一篇報告

 

657

00:51:38,313 --> 00:51:41,475

他們簡單的稱呼這為「做生意」,這五個判準方式

 

658

00:51:41,510 --> 00:51:44,515

我會認為這是五個微觀重整

 

659

00:51:44,550 --> 00:51:51,073

我認為零售業有多快能夠重整,

將會是區別不同發展中國家的關鍵

 

660

00:51:51,108 --> 00:51:54,977

但你問的問題更深入,是有關那些貧窮的國家

 

661

00:51:57,555 --> 00:52:00,665

我還有另一個章節叫做「不平的世界」

 

662

00:52:00,700 --> 00:52:04,065

我很清楚這世界並不是平的,並不夠平

 

663

00:52:04,857 --> 00:52:11,721

我認為,有四種力量、社群,

如果我們不特別照顧,他們並不會出現在平坦的世界中

 

664

00:52:12,464 --> 00:52:15,664

甚至很有可能讓他們的世界重新回到過去

 

665

00:52:16,473 --> 00:52:17,784

第一個我稱做為「病重者」

 

666

00:52:18,607 --> 00:52:23,111

他們是被各種像是HIV等疾病所掌握的群體

 

667

00:52:23,146 --> 00:52:26,881

在非洲鄉下、印度鄉下、蘇俄鄉下等等

 

668

00:52:26,916 --> 00:52:30,945

甚至在我們國家內或多或少也有

 

669

00:52:30,980 --> 00:52:33,129

他們就是病的太重了

 

670

00:52:33,164 --> 00:52:35,361

以致於無法參與平坦的世界

 

671

00:52:36,980 --> 00:52:42,722

事實上,

我也提到了一些有趣的合作模式,人們合力來解決這些問題

 

672

00:52:42,757 --> 00:52:47,067

像我所提到的Gates基金會,

就是以大挑戰的方式來面對這些問題

 

673

00:52:47,102 --> 00:52:49,325

第二群體我稱之為「太過弱勢」

 

674

00:52:49,360 --> 00:52:54,340

同樣的,那也是在印度鄉間、中國鄉間

他們去過北京、去過上海、去過邦加羅爾

 

675

00:52:54,375 --> 00:53:00,580

他們看過那些財富,但他們需要協助才能參與這改變

 

676

00:53:02,261 --> 00:53:10,428

說到這個,我很相信管理,任何貧窮解決方案的關鍵

 

677

00:53:10,463 --> 00:53:11,891

就是在管理

 

678

00:53:12,419 --> 00:53:17,777

而且是當地的管理,

這對NGO和反全球化組織來說都是一大挑戰

 

679