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觀賞影片時可參閱以下之中英文字幕:
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影片中文字幕:
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今天，我們歡迎來到麻省理工學院的來賓是
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Thomas
Friedman
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諸位都知道他是紐約時報的國際事務專欄作者
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我必須先承認
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他的作品是少數我經常看的專欄
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內容總是發人深省，即使我不是百分之百同意
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但就像我剛剛告訴他的一樣，
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他的標題是世界上最有趣的
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任何能夠寫出獨舞、或是上週的花椰菜這種標題的人
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絕對都讓你很難忘記
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椰菜仔等等......或許花椰菜還是比較好吧！
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我想各位也都知道，他獲得過三次普利茲獎
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以及三本我們都很熟知的書
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《從貝魯特到耶路撒冷》
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《凌志與橄欖樹》，我記得Alex
Darvel幾年前介紹我看
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更接近的則是《經度與緯度》
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他是我們校區附近Brandeis大學的地中海研究科系畢業生
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稍後他又在牛津大學獲得中東研究的碩士學位
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他今日來此的目的，
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我說實話好了
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某天深夜，我在別地某處的飯店
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就像我平常在飯店所做的一樣，躺在床上亂轉電視
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我剛好看到Charle
Rose秀的最後幾分鐘
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Charlie正在訪問他，兩人討論相當精采
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他正在講著那些夷平機制，我則是靜靜的聽著
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突然之間，我驚訝的發現到...
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這是一個真正重要、有力的公眾聲音
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而且是十分關鍵的
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提到的都是對我們在麻省理工學院的成員們極為重要的事情
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諸如開放的價值
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以及科技與科學的重要性
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以及為了國家的未來，讓年輕男女可以接受這些領域的教育
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當然，除此之外
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當然，還有最基礎的，最基本的假設
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讓我們可以更清楚的瞭解，世界上目前許多最重要的趨勢
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當然，他會討論的主題是他的新書：《世界是平的》
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我想現在應該是它在紐約時報暢銷排行榜上的第二週
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稍後，他將為我們演講
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演講後將會接受提問
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我們會在五點結束
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之後，從五點十五分開始，
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將會有個歡迎活動，我不知道我們準備多少人份的食物
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簽書活動則會在樓下的Bush教室，10-105教室
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Tom，歡迎來到麻省理工學院
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謝謝各位！
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Chuck，很感謝你邀請我，這是我的榮幸
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我今天已經覺得獲益良多了
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我很期待接下來的對話
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也非常感謝你把我的書名說對了
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我經常被介紹成《貝魯特到黎巴嫩》的作者
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也很常有人說《凌志和棕櫚樹》
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還有《經度和態度》，這絕對不是Jimmy
Buffet的歌
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也多謝你提到我的新書本週在紐時暢銷排行榜上第一名
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終於贏過了珍芳達的健身書
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因為如果銷售狀況還不夠好，
我準備把書名改為《平坦世界，平坦小腹》
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我終於成功啦！至少我自己這麼認為
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我接下來三十分鐘將會討論這本書的起源
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撰寫它意外的過程
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給各位核心概念的說明，並期待跟各位的對話
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這本書真的是個意外
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我的專欄的讀者知道我在1995年一月成為專欄作者
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在1995到2001年9月10日之間
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我的專欄內容都在我稱為凌志汽車議題，
和橄欖樹議題之間擺盪
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貿易、科技、金融的議題
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地緣政治和身份衝突
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我一直在這兩個議題之間擺盪，直到911事件
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當那天來臨時，我把凌志這類的故事丟到一邊
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花更多的時間探討橄欖樹的議題
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我在911之後的三年幾乎都在回教世界旅行
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試著瞭解911的根源，報導阿富汗以及伊拉克的戰爭
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我一直處在這些議題中，
直到2004年1月，大約16個月之前
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我當時在替探索頻道作節目，其中包括911根源的探討
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我們也作了一個關於
以色列在約但河西岸建立圍牆的故事
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2004年1月，我們正和探索頻道及紐時的成員坐在一起
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試著討論下一部紀錄片的主題是什麼
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在那時，
美國在世界上的地位和失去的影響力是熱門議題
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所以我想到了一個點子，我們為何不去...
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去全世界各地的電話客服中心
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訪問那些整天模仿美國人的年輕外國人
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問問他們對美國人的意見
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我覺得這就有點像是有趣的雙重鏡像
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事實上，我們真的已經在規劃這影片的預算了
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只是，正好某位民主黨總統候選人John
Kerry
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正大張旗鼓的抨擊那些「叛國總裁」將工作機會外包
（譯註Benedict
Arnold是美國革命初期著名的叛國保皇派）
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因此，突然間，外包這個議題爆炸性的登上世界舞台
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登上了《財富》、《富比士》、《商業週刊》、
《紐約時報》、《華爾街日報》封面或頭版
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所以，我說暫停，等等
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為什麼我們不直接去邦加羅爾，印度的外包首都
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也是印度的矽谷，來作一個稱為《外包的另一端》的報導
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讓我們可以從最底層看看這個現象
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於是我們就這麼做了
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所以，在2004年2月15日，我和探索頻道的
工作人員一起往邦加羅爾出發
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在十一天左右的時間內，我們拍了大概六十個小時的訪談
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在那總長六十個小時的訪談中，我越來越覺得不舒服
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當然，不是因為食物的關係
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那是每做一次訪談，我就有的印象
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在我矇然不知的時候
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當我在採訪因911而起的戰爭時
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在這個全球化的故事中，發生了真正重大的事件
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我竟然完全沒注意到
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影片英文字幕:
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Today, to welcome to MIT
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Thomas Friedman
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Who, as you know, is the foreigner affair
columnist for the New York Times.
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I will admit up front
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that it’s one of the few columns I read
with great regularity,
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finding the content always stimulating,
whether or not I agree with one hundred percent.
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But, as I told him earlier today,
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his titles are the best in the world.
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Anybody who could write
‥Dancing
Alone〃,
or
‥Last
Week Broccoli〃,
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all of which enables you to remember
Brusell Sprout.
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Whatever, broccoli would be better!
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I think, as you know, he has won 3 Pulitzer
prizes,
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3 books that all of us know very well:
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“From Beirut to Jerusalem”,
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‥The
Lexus and the Olive Tree〃,
which I remember Alex Darvel always introduce me to a couple years ago,
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little more recently,
‥Longitudes
and Latitudes〃.
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He’s a graduate of our neighboring
institution, Brandeis University in Mediterranean studies,
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and then got a master degree in Middle East
studies at Oxford University.
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So, the reason he’s here today,
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I’m gonna tell you the truth.
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I was in a hotel somewhere rather late at
night,
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doing what I usually do in hotel: lying in
bed, flipping through channels,
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and I came across the last few minutes of
the Charlie Rose Show
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and Charlie was interviewing Tom. They are
having a great discussion.
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He’s there talking about all his
flatteners. I’m listening
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and, all a sudden, I recognized with a
startle
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that here is a really important, powerful
public voice,
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in a very articulate manner,
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speaking the things that are very important
to us here at MIT,
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things such as the values of openness,
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and things such as the importance of
science and technology.
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And the importance of young men and women
being educated in these fields, to the future of this country.
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In addition, of course,
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to the fundamental hypothesis, a
fundamental notion
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of helping us to understand a little more
clearly, some of the most important trends going on in the world.
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He was, of course, discussing his new book,
‥The
World Is Flat〃,
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which is in its second week, I guess,
number 1 on the New York bestseller list.
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So, in just a moment, Tom is going to
address us.
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He is going to take a little Q&A at the end
of that.
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We’ll cut the things off just about 5’o
clock
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but there after starting at 5:15,
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there will be a reception. I don’t know
how many people’s food was planned for,
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and the book signing downstairs in the Bush
room, 10-105.
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Tom. welcome to MIT!
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00:03:05,419 --> 00:03:06,114
(Friedman)Thank you very much, thank you.
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Chuck, thank you very much for having me.
It’s a treat and an honor to be here.
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I had an enormously stimulating day
already.
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So, I look forward to this conversation.
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Thank you also for giving my book titles
right.
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You know, I’ve often been introduced to
author of
‥From
Beirut to Lebanon〃,
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‥The
Lexus and the Palm Tree〃,
that’s a popular one,
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And
‥Latitudes
and Attitudes〃.
It’s not a Jimmy Buffett’s song.
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And thank you also for noting that my book
ascended to number 1 this week in the New York Times bestsellers list.
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I finally made ahead of Jane Fonda,
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Because I was going to retitle my book
‥Flat
World, Flat Abs〃
if I did not grow up so.
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But I made it, so.
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I thought I’ll talk for the next 30 minutes
or so, of just the origins of this book,
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the accidental way it came about,
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and give you a sense of the core piece and
really look forward to a dialog.
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This book really was an accident.
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For those of you who read my column know
that really, I became the front columnist in January 1995
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Between 1995 to Sep 10th 2001,
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my column really oscillated between what I
would call
‥Lexus
issues〃
and
‥Olive
Tree issues〃’
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issues about trades, technology, finance,
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Many issues about geopolitics and ethnic
conflicts.
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And I was really in that kind of
oscillation mode, I say, right up until September 11.
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When I read of what happened that day, I
really dropped the whole Lexus story like a stone
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and went off and cover the Olive tree wars.
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I really spent 3 years after 911, traveling
almost exclusively in the area of Muslim world,
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trying to understand the roots of 911, and
covering the war in Afghanistan and in Iraq,
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and I was really in that mode right up to
last January, January of 2004, about 16 months ago,
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when I started doing documentary recently
for the Discovery channel. We’ve done one on the roots of 911.
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We did one on the wall that Israel built in
the West Bank.
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And in January of 2004, we’re sitting
around with our Discovery-New York Times team,
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trying to figure out what to do our next
documentary on.
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And at the time, the issue of America’s
standing in the world; the America’s low stand in the world was a very
hot issue.
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And so I had this idea, I said, “Why don’t
we…
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why don’t we go to call centers all over
the world
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and interview young people who spend their
days imitating Americans
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on what they think of America?”
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I thought I make a fun kind, almost double
mirror,
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00:06:07,424 --> 00:06:10,102
and we are literarily budgeting that show
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when a certain presidential democratic
hopeful named John Kerry
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came on with his blast against Benedict
Arnold executives who outsource.
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Suddenly, it recalls the whole issue of
outsource. It just exploded onto the world stage,
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and onto the front page of the Business
Week, on Fortune, on Forbes, and the New York Times, and on the Wall
street Journal.
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So, I said, you know, “Time out.
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Why don’t we just go to Bangalore, the
outsourcing capital of India
89
00:06:39,013 --> 00:06:45,015
and the Silicon Valley of India, and do a
documentary called ‘The Other Side of Outsourcing’
90
00:06:45,050 --> 00:06:48,759
where we look at these phenomena from the
ground up?”
91
00:06:48,794 --> 00:06:51,102
And that’s what we did.
92
00:06:51,137 --> 00:06:58,438
And so on February 15th of 2004, I set off
to Bangalore with our Discovery crew
93
00:06:58,473 --> 00:07:04,747
and we shot about 60 hours of interviews,
in a course of 10 to 11 days.
94
00:07:04,782 --> 00:07:13,175
And over the course of those 60 hours of
interviews, I got progressively sicker and sicker.
95
00:07:13,210 --> 00:07:15,079
It was not the food.
96
00:07:17,151 --> 00:07:21,265
It was a sense I got with each passing
interview,
97
00:07:21,300 --> 00:07:24,872
that while I had been sleeping,
98
00:07:24,907 --> 00:07:28,842
while I had been off covering the 911 wars,
99
00:07:28,877 --> 00:07:34,204
something really big had happened, in this
globalization story.
100
00:07:34,239 --> 00:07:37,267
And I had completely missed it.
|
|
101
00:07:38,287 --> 00:07:45,902
這個感覺發生在訪談想要從邦加羅爾幫我報稅的創業家時
102
00:07:45,937 --> 00:07:57,575
還有想在邦加羅爾幫我寫新軟體、
幫我看X光片、幫我追蹤Delta航空弄丟行李的人
103
00:07:57,610 --> 00:08:05,814
當我矇懂沈睡時，有大事發生了，但我卻完全無法解釋
104
00:08:05,849 --> 00:08:09,138
事實上，我真希望我可以放那些訪談的影片給各位看
105
00:08:09,173 --> 00:08:18,409
你坐在Mphasis公司的負責人Jerry
Rao對面，
他們的集團去年在印度幫四十萬美國人退稅
106
00:08:18,444 --> 00:08:23,817
我問他：Jerry，發生了什麼事情，我一定錯過了什麼
107
00:08:23,852 --> 00:08:25,881
你們怎麼可能這麼做呢？
108
00:08:25,916 --> 00:08:28,784
到底發生了什麼事情？
109
00:08:28,819 --> 00:08:38,854
我們作的最後一個訪談是印度幾個先進科技公司
之一的Infosys的總裁，我的朋友Nandan
Nilekani
110
00:08:38,889 --> 00:08:42,708
Nandan和我正坐在他辦公室外面的沙發上，等著拍攝工作開始
111
00:08:42,743 --> 00:08:44,462
我們有點像在正式來之前的彩排訪問
112
00:08:44,497 --> 00:08:47,350
在那時，他說：Tom，我得告訴你
113
00:08:47,385 --> 00:08:51,757
全世界的經濟舞台正在被夷平
114
00:08:51,792 --> 00:08:55,748
世界的經濟舞台正被夷平
115
00:08:55,783 --> 00:08:59,454
而你們這些美國人並沒做好準備
116
00:08:59,489 --> 00:09:02,850
喔，我趕忙在我的小筆記本上寫下這句話
117
00:09:02,885 --> 00:09:06,792
全世界的經濟舞台正在被夷平
118
00:09:06,827 --> 00:09:12,914
訪談過後，我坐上我的車，回到飯店
119
00:09:12,949 --> 00:09:18,692
在那整段旅程中，我的腦中一直在想Nandan所說的話
120
00:09:18,727 --> 00:09:30,540
最後，我終於明白
Nandan所說的意思是全球的經濟舞台已經變得平坦了
121
00:09:32,535 --> 00:09:35,795
於是，於是我就想到要寫這本書
122
00:09:35,830 --> 00:09:40,686
我告訴自己：天哪，他說的是這個世界是平坦的！
123
00:09:40,721 --> 00:09:49,596
他告訴我這世界是平坦的，
而且他認為這是人類發展史上的一大突破
124
00:09:49,631 --> 00:09:53,346
我們讓世界變平了！
125
00:09:53,381 --> 00:09:56,184
當我回到飯店，我馬上打給我老婆
126
00:09:56,219 --> 00:10:00,063
我當時就這麼說：「我要寫一本叫做世界是平的書。」
127
00:10:02,133 --> 00:10:04,857
她以為我徹徹底底的瘋了
128
00:10:04,892 --> 00:10:11,998
但我回到家，我通知紐約時報的發行人、
通知我的老闆，版面編輯Gail
Collins
129
00:10:12,033 --> 00:10:13,862
各位，我得要放假
130
00:10:13,897 --> 00:10:16,277
我得要馬上休假
131
00:10:16,312 --> 00:10:23,259
我的軟體需要更新
我分析國際事務的架構需要更新
132
00:10:23,294 --> 00:10:27,278
我看到的事情我不能理解、無法分析
133
00:10:27,313 --> 00:10:33,209
如果我不能馬上放假，
我可能會替紐時寫出非常蠢的文章
134
00:10:36,824 --> 00:10:38,890
我必須承認，這是爭取休假的好方法
135
00:10:40,858 --> 00:10:41,851
非常難以拒絕
136
00:10:43,531 --> 00:10:45,480
所以我們設法安排妥當
137
00:10:45,515 --> 00:10:47,446
最後我獲得了三個月的休假
138
00:10:49,182 --> 00:10:51,860
基本上，在那段時間中
139
00:10:51,895 --> 00:10:55,247
在3月15號到12月15號之間
（譯註：講者口誤？）
140
00:10:55,282 --> 00:10:59,203
我像是發瘋、著魔一般的寫作
141
00:10:59,238 --> 00:11:00,802
我寫了這本書
142
00:11:01,731 --> 00:11:05,783
讓我先很快的解說一下前三個章節
143
00:11:06,967 --> 00:11:11,273
第一章的名稱我想非常適當，就叫做：當你沈睡時
144
00:11:11,308 --> 00:11:20,671
該章節一開始的內容是：哥倫布在1492出航
是要去找尋通往印度的捷徑
145
00:11:20,706 --> 00:11:23,661
哥倫布在1492年要去的就是那個地方
146
00:11:23,696 --> 00:11:27,127
當年的回教勢力阻擋了陸上的交通
147
00:11:27,162 --> 00:11:32,324
哥倫布不想要經過好望角，所以他往西航行
148
00:11:32,359 --> 00:11:34,815
他率領三艘船Nina、Pinta、Santa
Maria
149
00:11:34,850 --> 00:11:36,568
他並未找到印度
150
00:11:36,603 --> 00:11:42,785
但他稱呼所遇到的人為Indians，至今
我們也跟著叫他們印地安人
151
00:11:42,820 --> 00:11:47,450
然後他回到家，告訴老婆說，親愛的，我意外發現地球是圓的
152
00:11:47,485 --> 00:11:51,669
512年之後，我出發前往印度
153
00:11:51,704 --> 00:11:54,896
我很清楚我要去哪裡
154
00:11:54,931 --> 00:11:57,048
我往東飛
155
00:11:57,083 --> 00:11:59,818
我坐德航的商務艙
156
00:11:59,853 --> 00:12:03,997
我的座位上還有GPS導航系統，告訴我身在何方
157
00:12:04,032 --> 00:12:09,175
但我回家時卻告訴妻子：親愛的，我意外發現世界是平的
158
00:12:10,113 --> 00:12:13,993
第一章基本上就是描述我在印度的所有遭遇
159
00:12:14,028 --> 00:12:17,658
我並且因此獲得了這個結論
160
00:12:17,693 --> 00:12:21,240
但我跟哥倫布不同，我繼續往東走
161
00:12:21,275 --> 00:12:24,246
接著我到了中國大連
162
00:12:24,281 --> 00:12:27,285
接受日本外包的重要據點
163
00:12:27,320 --> 00:12:29,512
這是中國東北的一個重要城市
164
00:12:29,547 --> 00:12:36,090
有數以萬計的會說日文的中國人
165
00:12:36,125 --> 00:12:49,209
現在替日本跨國大企業、或原先以東京為據點的
美國跨國大企業負責後端管理、撰寫程式、處理商業流程
166
00:12:49,244 --> 00:12:54,350
為了避免諸位搞混我說的話，讓我重複一遍
167
00:12:54,385 --> 00:12:56,652
最近中國的頭條新聞是
168
00:12:56,687 --> 00:13:00,905
數以萬計通日語的中國人
169
00:13:00,940 --> 00:13:08,211
今日正從大連處理日本跨國大企業的後端管理
170
00:13:08,246 --> 00:13:13,449
因此，當地許多大學要求你必須學兩年的日文
171
00:13:13,484 --> 00:13:19,557
以便能夠進入這個不斷膨脹的日本外包市場
172
00:13:20,701 --> 00:13:24,350
然後我繼續往東走，我去了科羅拉多州
173
00:13:24,385 --> 00:13:27,798
我是真的往東走喔
174
00:13:28,921 --> 00:13:32,766
有一天我打給Jet
Blue（航空公司）來預定機票
175
00:13:32,801 --> 00:13:34,809
事實上我是在作一些研究
176
00:13:34,844 --> 00:13:40,394
於是有一個聲音聽起來很年長，很友善的女性接了電話
177
00:13:40,429 --> 00:13:44,114
我問她Jet
Blue是否有從Washington飛到Atlanta
178
00:13:44,149 --> 00:13:46,021
她說，抱歉，沒有
179
00:13:46,056 --> 00:13:50,290
最後我說了，女士，我可以請教您的大名嗎？
180
00:13:50,325 --> 00:13:52,479
她說，我叫做Betty
181
00:13:52,514 --> 00:13:56,518
我問：Betty，我可否知道您現在人在哪裡？
182
00:13:56,553 --> 00:14:02,905
她說：親愛的，我正穿著拖鞋在臥室，
看著美麗的猶他州鹽湖城景色
183
00:14:02,940 --> 00:14:08,025
因為Jet
Blue設計了一個完整的家中客服系統
184
00:14:08,060 --> 00:14:11,027
Jet
Blue是由一名成功的摩門教徒David
Neeleman所創辦
185
00:14:11,062 --> 00:14:15,413
他相信如果配偶之一在家工作，家庭會凝聚的更緊密
186
00:14:15,448 --> 00:14:19,121
因此，他創造了一個徹底的在家客服系統
187
00:14:19,156 --> 00:14:24,078
主要是由猶他州鹽湖城的退休人員和家庭主婦擔任
188
00:14:24,113 --> 00:14:28,604
所以，如果你打電話給Jet
Blue訂機票，
可能會是Betty在臥室接電話
189
00:14:28,639 --> 00:14:34,941
可能是Bob在地下室接電話，可能是Sue在浴缸旁拿著筆記型電腦
190
00:14:34,976 --> 00:14:38,733
但就是這些人在幫你們作Jet
Blue的機票預訂
191
00:14:38,768 --> 00:14:41,452
然後我繼續往東走
192
00:14:41,487 --> 00:14:44,880
我去了Washington，有天拿起了華盛頓郵報
193
00:14:44,915 --> 00:14:48,935
他們報導了一個麥當勞的驚人初期計畫
194
00:14:48,970 --> 00:14:54,091
如果你到某幾個麥當勞的得來速窗口
195
00:14:54,126 --> 00:14:57,663
你替孩子訂了六個大麥克漢堡、六杯奶昔和十八個薯條
196
00:14:57,698 --> 00:15:04,667
你事實上並不是在和那個當地麥當勞的店員講話，
你是和Colorado州
Spring的客服中心講話
197
00:15:04,702 --> 00:15:08,555
他們負責接受你點餐，把你的臉拍下來
198
00:15:08,590 --> 00:15:13,339
然後把你的照片和訂單傳回當地的麥當勞
199
00:15:13,374 --> 00:15:17,790
當你開到下一個取餐窗口時，
你的照片和訂單就會被比對並處理
200
00:15:17,825 --> 00:15:21,192
所以，世界的確在被越變越平
|
101
00:07:38,287 --> 00:07:45,902
That thought hit me somewhere between the
interview with the Indian entrepreneur who wanted to do my taxes from
Bangalore,
102
00:07:45,937 --> 00:07:57,575
and the one who wanted to write my new
software from Bangalore, and the one who want to read my X-rays from
Bangalore, and the ones who want to trace my lost luggage on Delta
Airlines from Bangalore,
103
00:07:57,610 --> 00:08:05,814
that while I had been sleeping, something
really big had happened, and I couldn’t explain it.
104
00:08:05,849 --> 00:08:09,138
In fact, I wish I could show you the
outtakes of the interviews.
105
00:08:09,173 --> 00:08:18,409
You’d be sitting across the table from
Jerry Rao, who owns a company called Mphasis. It’s a part of a group
that done 400,000 American tax returns from India last year.
106
00:08:18,444 --> 00:08:23,817
And I say to him, “Jerry, what happened? I
missed something!
107
00:08:23,852 --> 00:08:25,881
How can you be doing this?
108
00:08:25,916 --> 00:08:28,784
What happened?”
109
00:08:28,819 --> 00:08:38,854
Well, the last interview we did was with a
friend of mine, Nandan Nilekani, who headed Infosys, the CEO of Infosys,
which is one of the premier Indian high tech companies.
110
00:08:38,889 --> 00:08:42,708
Nandan and I were sitting on the couch
outside his office before the filming began.
111
00:08:42,743 --> 00:08:44,462
I was doing a kind of pre-interview with
him.
112
00:08:44,497 --> 00:08:47,350
And one point he said to me:
‥Tom,
I’ve got to tell you.
113
00:08:47,385 --> 00:08:51,757
The global economic playing field is being
leveled.
114
00:08:51,792 --> 00:08:55,748
The global economic playing field is being
leveled
115
00:08:55,783 --> 00:08:59,454
and you Americans are not ready.”
116
00:08:59,489 --> 00:09:02,850
Oh, I wrote that down in my little
notebook:
117
00:09:02,885 --> 00:09:06,792
The global economic playing field is being
leveled.
118
00:09:06,827 --> 00:09:12,914
Well, after the interview I got in my jeep,
and went back to my hotel.
119
00:09:12,949 --> 00:09:18,692
The whole time back in that ride, I kept
rolling over in my head what Nandan had said:
120
00:09:18,727 --> 00:09:30,540
“The global economic playing field is being
leveled.” And finally it occurred to me what Nandan was saying was that
the global economic playing field is being flattened.
121
00:09:32,535 --> 00:09:35,795
And then, then I thought of this book.
122
00:09:35,830 --> 00:09:40,686
I said to myself, “Oh, my God, he’s telling
me the world is flat.
123
00:09:40,721 --> 00:09:49,596
He’s telling me the world is flat, and he’s
citing this as a great achievement in human development
124
00:09:49,631 --> 00:09:53,346
that we’ve made the world flat.”
125
00:09:53,381 --> 00:09:56,184
Well, when I went back to my hotel, I
called my wife.
126
00:09:56,219 --> 00:10:00,063
This is exactly how it happened. I said:
‥Honey,
I’m gonna write a book called ‘The World Is Flat’.〃
127
00:10:02,133 --> 00:10:04,857
She thought I was stark raving mad.
128
00:10:04,892 --> 00:10:11,998
But I came home. I called the publisher in
New York Times, and my boss Gail Collins, the editor of page.
129
00:10:12,033 --> 00:10:13,862
“Gail, I’ve gotta go on leave.
00:10:13,897 --> 00:10:16,277
I’ve gotta go on leave immediately
131
00:10:16,312 --> 00:10:23,259
because my software needs updating.
The framework through which I'm analyzing
foreign affairs needs updating.
132
00:10:23,294 --> 00:10:27,278
I am seeing things out there, I cannot
understand and explain.
133
00:10:27,313 --> 00:10:33,209
If I don't go on leave immediately, I’m
gonna write something really stupid in the New York Times.”
134
00:10:36,824 --> 00:10:38,890
It's a great way to get a leave, I have to
say.
135
00:10:40,858 --> 00:10:41,851
Very hard to say no.
136
00:10:43,531 --> 00:10:45,480
So we worked it out basically
137
00:10:45,515 --> 00:10:47,446
and I eventually got three months’ leave.
138
00:10:49,182 --> 00:10:51,860
And during that time, basically,
139
00:10:51,895 --> 00:10:55,247
between March 15th and December 15th,
140
00:10:55,282 --> 00:10:59,203
in a complete frenzy, obsession, really,
141
00:10:59,238 --> 00:11:00,802
I wrote this book.
142
00:11:01,731 --> 00:11:05,783
Let me just go through the first three
chapters very quickly
143
00:11:06,967 --> 00:11:11,273
The first chapter is called, I think it
appropriately enough: “While You Were Sleeping”.
144
00:11:11,308 --> 00:11:20,671
And I begin the book by noting that
Christopher Columbus set sail in 1492 looking for a shorter route to
India
145
00:11:20,706 --> 00:11:23,661
That's where Columbus was going in 1492.
146
00:11:23,696 --> 00:11:27,127
There the Muslim powers of that day had
blocked the overland routes,
147
00:11:27,162 --> 00:11:32,324
and he didn't want to go around the Horn of
Africa, so Columbus sailed west.
148
00:11:32,359 --> 00:11:34,815
He had the Nina, the Pinta, the Santa
Maria.
149
00:11:34,850 --> 00:11:36,568
He never did find India,
150
00:11:36,603 --> 00:11:42,785
but he called the people he ran into
Indians, and we call them that till this day.
151
00:11:42,820 --> 00:11:47,450
And he came home and told his wife, "Honey,
I've accidentally discovered the world is round."
152
00:11:47,485 --> 00:11:51,669
I set off for India 512 years later.
153
00:11:51,704 --> 00:11:54,896
I knew just which direction I was going.
154
00:11:54,931 --> 00:11:57,048
I sailed east.
155
00:11:57,083 --> 00:11:59,818
I had Lufthansa business class
156
00:11:59,853 --> 00:12:03,997
and a GPS satellite that popped up in my
seat told me exactly where I was,
157
00:12:04,032 --> 00:12:09,175
and I came home and told my wife, "Honey,
I've accidentally discovered the world is flat."
158
00:12:10,113 --> 00:12:13,993
And the first chapter really goes through
all the encounters I had in India
159
00:12:14,028 --> 00:12:17,658
that led me to this conclusion.
160
00:12:17,693 --> 00:12:21,240
But unlike Columbus, I kept going east.
161
00:12:21,275 --> 00:12:24,246
I next went to Dalian in China,
162
00:12:24,281 --> 00:12:27,285
the capital of outsourcing for Japan.
163
00:12:27,320 --> 00:12:29,512
This town, a major town in northeast China
164
00:12:29,547 --> 00:12:36,090
where thousands upon thousands of
Japanese-speaking Chinese
165
00:12:36,125 --> 00:12:49,209
are now running the backrooms, writing the
software and doing the business processing for major Japanese
multinationals and major American multinationals formerly based in
Tokyo.
166
00:12:49,244 --> 00:12:54,350
Let me repeat that, in case you misheard
me, ok?
167
00:12:54,385 --> 00:12:56,652
…in light of the recent headlines in China.
168
00:12:56,687 --> 00:13:00,905
Tens of thousands of Japanese-speaking
Chinese
169
00:13:00,940 --> 00:13:08,211
are today running the backrooms of major
Japanese multinationals from Dalian
170
00:13:08,246 --> 00:13:13,449
where it is now a requirement in many
universities that you study two years of Japanese
171
00:13:13,484 --> 00:13:19,557
in order to have access to this incredibly
burgeoning market of outsourcing from Japan.
172
00:13:20,701 --> 00:13:24,350
And then I kept going east, and I went to
Colorado.
173
00:13:24,385 --> 00:13:27,798
And I really went east.
174
00:13:28,921 --> 00:13:32,766
And I called Jet Blue one day to make an
airline reservation.
175
00:13:32,801 --> 00:13:34,809
I was really doing a little bit of
research.
176
00:13:34,844 --> 00:13:40,394
And I got a rather elderly sounding woman
on the phone. She was very friendly
177
00:13:40,429 --> 00:13:44,114
and I asked her if Jet Blue flew from
Washington to Atlanta.
178
00:13:44,149 --> 00:13:46,021
She said, no, they didn't.
179
00:13:46,056 --> 00:13:50,290
Finally I said, "Madam, could I ask you
your name?"
180
00:13:50,325 --> 00:13:52,479
And she said, "My name is Betty."
181
00:13:52,514 --> 00:13:56,518
And I said, "Betty, could I ask you where
you are right now?"
182
00:13:56,553 --> 00:14:02,905
She said, "Honey, I'm in my slippers up in
my bedroom, looking out of the most beautiful scene of Salt Lake City,
Utah."
183
00:14:02,940 --> 00:14:08,025
Because Jet Blue has created a complete
home reservation system.
184
00:14:08,060 --> 00:14:11,027
Jet Blue was founded by David Neeleman, a
devout Mormon
185
00:14:11,062 --> 00:14:15,413
who believes that families would be held
together better if one of the spouses works at home
186
00:14:15,448 --> 00:14:19,121
and so he created a complete home
reservation system
187
00:14:19,156 --> 00:14:24,078
that’s manned largely by retiree and
housewives in Salt Lake City, Utah.
188
00:14:24,113 --> 00:14:28,604
So if you call Jet Blue for reservation,
you could get Betty in her bedroom.
189
00:14:28,639 --> 00:14:34,941
You might get Bob in the basement, You
might get Sue out by the hot tub on her laptop
190
00:14:34,976 --> 00:14:38,733
but that's who will make your Jet Blue
reservation.
191
00:14:38,768 --> 00:14:41,452
And then I kept moving east.
192
00:14:41,487 --> 00:14:44,880
I got all the way to Washington. D. C.. I
picked up the Washington Post one day.
193
00:14:44,915 --> 00:14:48,935
They had a remarkable story about a pilot
project begun by McDonald’s
194
00:14:48,970 --> 00:14:54,091
where if you drive up to McDonald’s now, at
certain locales you drive up to the driving window
195
00:14:54,126 --> 00:14:57,663
and you order 6 Big Mac, 6 milk shake and
18 fries for the kids.
196
00:14:57,698 --> 00:15:04,667
You are not actually speaking to that
McDonald’s.
You are speaking out to McDonald’s call
center in Colorado Springs
197
00:15:04,702 --> 00:15:08,555
that's taking down your order and taking
your picture
198
00:15:08,590 --> 00:15:13,339
and then zapping your picture and your
order electronically back to that McDonald’s
199
00:15:13,374 --> 00:15:17,790
where your picture and order are matched up
when you drive up to the driving window.
200
00:15:17,825 --> 00:15:21,192
So the world is being flattened |
|
201
00:15:21,227 --> 00:15:28,639
所用的方法我們其中很多人並不知道，
就像我開始這個計畫的時候確實可說被蒙在鼓裡
202
00:15:28,674 --> 00:15:34,106
這於是讓我得到了第一章結尾的看法
203
00:15:34,141 --> 00:15:40,192
我的看法是全球化有三個重要的年代
204
00:15:40,227 --> 00:15:43,926
第一階段是我認為的全球化1.0
205
00:15:43,961 --> 00:15:48,623
從1492延續到1800年代初期
206
00:15:48,658 --> 00:15:51,900
1820年可說是世界貿易化的關鍵
207
00:15:51,935 --> 00:15:59,062
這全球化1.0的年代可說是把世界的尺寸從大縮到中等
208
00:15:59,097 --> 00:16:04,770
那個年代的全球化是由國家所帶領的
209
00:16:04,771 --> 00:16:08,758
你透過你的國家來進行全球化
210
00:16:08,793 --> 00:16:13,856
西班牙去新世界，葡萄牙去東亞，英國殖民印度
211
00:16:13,891 --> 00:16:20,416
國家進行全球化的原因是因為掠奪主義、力量、自然資源
212
00:16:20,451 --> 00:16:24,186
但那個年代的改變動機
213
00:16:24,221 --> 00:16:25,761
其實是國家
214
00:16:25,762 --> 00:16:29,863
第二個全球化的重要年代，全球化2.0
215
00:16:29,898 --> 00:16:34,767
我認為是從1800年初期到2000年，就結束在那一年
216
00:16:35,711 --> 00:16:39,413
這一段時代的全球化讓世界從中型縮到小型
217
00:16:39,804 --> 00:16:45,061
我認為，這段時間的全球化是由公司全球化所帶領的
218
00:16:45,096 --> 00:16:48,372
跨國企業進行全球化是為了市場、為了勞動力
219
00:16:48,407 --> 00:16:53,732
在這段全球化的年代中，你是透過你的公司來進行全球化
220
00:16:53,767 --> 00:16:58,395
公司是那個年代的全球化動機
221
00:16:59,562 --> 00:17:03,230
我在這本書中的論點是，當你沈睡的時候
222
00:17:03,265 --> 00:17:06,062
我們進入了全球化3.0的時代
223
00:17:06,097 --> 00:17:07,638
我也一樣沈睡著昧於這個真相
224
00:17:07,673 --> 00:17:11,222
它將世界從小型縮成微型
225
00:17:11,257 --> 00:17:15,525
同時夷平了全球的經濟舞台
226
00:17:15,560 --> 00:17:20,430
但這一年代真正獨特不同的地方在於
227
00:17:20,465 --> 00:17:27,783
這一年代的全球化並不是國家全球化
228
00:17:27,818 --> 00:17:31,263
不是公司全球化
229
00:17:31,298 --> 00:17:41,590
這一年代獨特的將會是個人持續的全球化
230
00:17:41,625 --> 00:17:43,870
個體和小的團隊
231
00:17:43,905 --> 00:17:52,303
這一年代獨特的地方，
就是這些個體和小團隊能將自己全球化的程度
232
00:17:52,338 --> 00:17:58,135
而且更必須越來越以全球化的角度思考
，和將自己置於全球化的浪潮之中
233
00:17:59,111 --> 00:18:00,834
各位注意了
234
00:18:00,869 --> 00:18:03,818
我認為，這個全球化的年代
235
00:18:03,853 --> 00:18:06,816
與全球化2.0和1.0都不同
236
00:18:06,851 --> 00:18:12,697
將不會只有一群西方的白人群體得以參與
237
00:18:12,732 --> 00:18:14,952
他們原先稱霸了前兩個全球化的年代
238
00:18:14,987 --> 00:18:23,080
而將會是由各種膚色，
能夠隨時連上網路的個體和人群來參與
239
00:18:24,010 --> 00:18:26,547
所以，這是第一章的論點
240
00:18:26,582 --> 00:18:29,505
本書花了我最多時間的第二章，
241
00:18:29,540 --> 00:18:32,683
叫做十天夷平全世界
242
00:18:32,718 --> 00:18:37,851
是有關十種夷平世界的科技、力量和發明，
我試著在每一天安排一種力量在其中
243
00:18:37,886 --> 00:18:42,757
這些力量創造了這平坦的全球舞台
244
00:18:43,733 --> 00:18:47,853
讓我一條一條盡快描述這十種夷平機制
245
00:18:47,888 --> 00:18:51,332
第一個夷平機制是11/9
246
00:18:51,367 --> 00:18:53,747
不是9/11而是11/9
247
00:18:53,782 --> 00:18:55,888
1989年11月9號
248
00:18:55,923 --> 00:18:59,152
11月9號是柏林圍牆倒下的日子
249
00:18:59,187 --> 00:19:02,666
一個日期上的巧合
250
00:19:02,701 --> 00:19:06,741
柏林圍牆的倒塌是個重要的夷平機制
251
00:19:06,776 --> 00:19:12,486
因為圍牆的倒塌讓我們得以將全世界視為單一的平原
252
00:19:12,521 --> 00:19:16,781
我敢說，如果我們回頭查詢麻省理工或是紐時的資料庫
253
00:19:16,816 --> 00:19:22,382
在1970或是80年代，我們不會找到很多關於全球化的課程
254
00:19:22,417 --> 00:19:27,158
會有東方政策的課程，或是西方政策的課程
255
00:19:27,193 --> 00:19:30,046
他們會教導南北的不同
256
00:19:30,081 --> 00:19:34,325
但沒有人會討論全球化，因為有堵牆擋住了道路
257
00:19:34,360 --> 00:19:41,766
圍牆的倒塌是個夷平世界的關鍵，
讓我們得以將全世界視為單一的平原
258
00:19:43,340 --> 00:19:48,657
我把這個圍牆倒下，視窗出現的時間點叫做第一個夷平機制
259
00:19:48,692 --> 00:19:55,858
因為視窗3.0作業系統在柏林圍牆倒塌後五個月上市
260
00:19:55,893 --> 00:19:58,610
這兩件事情發生在同時
261
00:20:00,099 --> 00:20:10,626
不只圍牆倒塌，讓我們可以把世界看成同一個領域
我們還有一個單一的圖形界面系統，讓我們可以觀察這個世界
262
00:20:10,661 --> 00:20:12,291
那是第一個夷平機制
263
00:20:13,604 --> 00:20:17,115
第二個夷平機制是1995年8月9號
264
00:20:17,150 --> 00:20:22,426
我認為1995年8月9號是西方文明最重要的日期之一
265
00:20:22,461 --> 00:20:31,257
1995年8月9號是一個位在美國加州
Mountain View的小公司Netscape股票上市的日期
266
00:20:31,292 --> 00:20:35,131
Netscape上市會成為重要的夷平機制有三個原因
267
00:20:35,166 --> 00:20:39,178
首先，是Netscape瀏覽器
268
00:20:39,213 --> 00:20:44,866
是我們第一個真正能讓網路鮮活起來的網路瀏覽器
269
00:20:44,901 --> 00:20:49,553
讓爺爺奶奶孫子孫女都可以使用
270
00:20:49,588 --> 00:20:53,593
而不是只有在麻省理工受訓的電腦科學家可以使用
271
00:20:53,628 --> 00:20:58,835
所以，在我認為Netscape最大的功勞是讓網路鮮活起來
272
00:20:58,870 --> 00:21:09,298
讓來自不同地方的人們，可以用各種方式
前所未有的彼此聯繫
273
00:21:09,333 --> 00:21:13,428
第二件Netscape協助，但並非獨力完成的是：
274
00:21:13,463 --> 00:21:17,537
Netscape將一些開放的傳輸協定商業化
275
00:21:17,572 --> 00:21:26,034
確保了網路可以跨平台跨國使用，
而不會僅是某些公司的資產或是任何人的後花園
276
00:21:26,069 --> 00:21:30,123
第三點，對我來說最重要的是Netscape觸發了網路熱潮
277
00:21:30,158 --> 00:21:32,522
也引起了網路泡沫化
278
00:21:32,557 --> 00:21:44,772
意外觸發了瘋狂、不合理、難以說明的投資熱潮
五年內在光纖纜線設備上投入了將近十兆美金
279
00:21:44,807 --> 00:21:52,751
而這瘋狂、不合理、難以說明的
在五年內投資十兆美金於光纖網路上的熱潮
280
00:21:52,786 --> 00:21:59,904
意外的讓北京、邦加羅爾、
我所居住的Bethesda成為隔壁鄰居
281
00:21:59,939 --> 00:22:03,688
沒有任何人、任何組織計畫了這件事情
282
00:22:03,723 --> 00:22:07,000
你們都應該可以回想起來這是怎麼發生的
283
00:22:07,035 --> 00:22:09,733
Netscape在1995年8月9號上市
284
00:22:09,768 --> 00:22:13,706
開盤價格是28美金
285
00:22:13,741 --> 00:22:18,893
當天股市以71開市，56收盤
286
00:22:18,928 --> 00:22:27,374
我們看著這狀況都認為:他們一定很賺錢
287
00:22:28,446 --> 00:22:32,125
所以我們怎麼作，我們都開始搶購GlobalAcrossing
288
00:22:32,160 --> 00:22:36,708
Nortel、Lucent
289
00:22:36,743 --> 00:22:39,470
拜託，承認吧，這是在你們的退休計畫裡面的股票
290
00:22:40,798 --> 00:22:43,405
那些公司拿了我們的錢
291
00:22:43,440 --> 00:22:53,369
我們的共同基金之後，在海上、
在地上埋設了一哩又一哩的光纖纜線
292
00:22:54,600 --> 00:22:57,162
諸位一定都很清楚
293
00:22:57,197 --> 00:23:03,362
光纖纜線是永遠不會停止的禮物
294
00:23:04,309 --> 00:23:13,371
因為一旦將它們埋下，你只需要將
各端點的轉換器升級，就可以傳輸越來越多的容量
295
00:23:14,541 --> 00:23:20,596
基本上，這大量的、無孔不入的光纖
296
00:23:20,631 --> 00:23:29,508
讓更多地方的更多人，
幾乎可說是史無前例完全免費的彼此溝通
297
00:23:30,795 --> 00:23:34,771
所以，這就是Netscape的夷平機制的意義
298
00:23:34,806 --> 00:23:36,989
第三個夷平機制我簡單的稱其為工作流程
299
00:23:37,024 --> 00:23:44,198
工作流程是我對於所有能讓工作運作的軟體和標準的簡稱
300
00:23:44,233 --> 00:23:52,309
包括微軟的WORD、Netmeeting，
所有你們工作時所使用的軟體等等
|
201
00:15:21,227 --> 00:15:28,639
in all kinds of ways that a lot of us
aren't fully aware of.
I certainly was not aware of it when I
started this project.
202
00:15:28,674 --> 00:15:34,106
That sort of brings me to the kind of
metathesis of the book which is the end of the first chapter.
203
00:15:34,141 --> 00:15:40,192
Basically what I am arguing there is that,
there've been 3 great era of globalization, I would argue.
204
00:15:40,227 --> 00:15:43,926
The first era, try to call globalization
1.0,
205
00:15:43,961 --> 00:15:48,623
lasted from, while I would say, 1492 until
the early 1800s.
206
00:15:48,658 --> 00:15:51,900
Say, 1820 was the beginning of global
arbitrage.
207
00:15:51,935 --> 00:15:59,062
The first era of globalization 1.0 really
shrank the world from a size large to a size medium.
208
00:15:59,097 --> 00:16:04,770
That era of globalization was really
spearheaded by countries globalizing.
209
00:16:04,771 --> 00:16:08,758
You went global through your country.
210
00:16:08,793 --> 00:16:13,856
Whether it’s Spain exploring the new world,
Portugal East Asia, Britain colonizing India,
211
00:16:13,891 --> 00:16:20,416
it was countries going global for reasons
of imperialism, power, natural resources,
212
00:16:20,451 --> 00:16:24,186
but the dynamic agent of globalization in
that era
213
00:16:24,221 --> 00:16:25,761
was really the country.
214
00:16:25,762 --> 00:16:29,863
The second great era of globalization,
globalization 2.0,
215
00:16:29,898 --> 00:16:34,767
I would argue, was from early 1800s until
the year 2000. It just ended.
216
00:16:35,711 --> 00:16:39,413
And that era of globalization shrank the
world from size medium to size small.
217
00:16:39,804 --> 00:16:45,061
And that era of globalization, I would
argue, was spearheaded by companies globalizing,
218
00:16:45,096 --> 00:16:48,372
multinationals globalizing for markets and
for labor.
219
00:16:48,407 --> 00:16:53,732
And in that era of globalization, you went
global through your company.
220
00:16:53,767 --> 00:16:58,395
The company was the dynamic agent of that
era of globalization.
221
00:16:59,562 --> 00:17:03,230
What I am trying to argue in this book is:
while you were sleeping,
222
00:17:03,265 --> 00:17:06,062
We enter globalization 3.0.
223
00:17:06,097 --> 00:17:07,638
Certainly while I was sleeping.
224
00:17:07,673 --> 00:17:11,222
It is shrinking the world from size small
to size tiny,
225
00:17:11,257 --> 00:17:15,525
and flattening the global economic playing
field at the same time.
226
00:17:15,560 --> 00:17:20,430
Only what's really new, unique and
different about this era
227
00:17:20,465 --> 00:17:27,783
is that this era of globalization is not
built around countries globalizing,
228
00:17:27,818 --> 00:17:31,263
and is not built around companies
globalizing.
229
00:17:31,298 --> 00:17:41,590
What is new and unique about this era is
the degree to which it is and will continue to be built around
individuals globalizing,
230
00:17:41,625 --> 00:17:43,870
individuals and small groups.
231
00:17:43,905 --> 00:17:52,303
That is the new and unique thing about this
era is the degree to which individuals and small groups can globalize
themselves
232
00:17:52,338 --> 00:17:58,135
and increasingly must think of themselves
globally and locate themselves globally.
233
00:17:59,111 --> 00:18:00,834
And pay attention.
234
00:18:00,869 --> 00:18:03,818
This era of globalization, I would argue,
235
00:18:03,853 --> 00:18:06,816
unlike globalization 1.0 and 2.0,
236
00:18:06,851 --> 00:18:12,697
is not gonna be built exclusively around a
group of white western individuals
237
00:18:12,732 --> 00:18:14,952
who dominated the first 2 eras of
globalization.
238
00:18:14,987 --> 00:18:23,080
It's gonna be built around individuals and
small groups of every color of the rainbow who will be able to plug and
play.
239
00:18:24,010 --> 00:18:26,547
So that's the kind of the meta argument
here.
240
00:18:26,582 --> 00:18:29,505
Now the second chapter of the book, the one
that really took me the longest,
241
00:18:29,540 --> 00:18:32,683
is called "the Tens Days of Flattened
World".
242
00:18:32,718 --> 00:18:37,851
It's about the ten forces, technology and
advances I tried to build each one around a day
243
00:18:37,886 --> 00:18:42,757
that really created this level, this global
playing field.
244
00:18:43,733 --> 00:18:47,853
And let me go through what I called "The
Ten Flatteners" as quickly as I can.
245
00:18:47,888 --> 00:18:51,332
The first flattener is 11/9
246
00:18:51,367 --> 00:18:53,747
Not 9/11, 11/9.
247
00:18:53,782 --> 00:18:55,888
11/9/1989.
248
00:18:55,923 --> 00:18:59,152
11/9 is the day the Berlin Wall came down.
249
00:18:59,187 --> 00:19:02,666
Wonderful sort of cabalistic accident of
dates.
250
00:19:02,701 --> 00:19:06,741
And the fall of the wall was a huge
flattener
251
00:19:06,776 --> 00:19:12,486
because the fall of the wall allowed us to
see and think of the world as a single flat plane.
252
00:19:12,521 --> 00:19:16,781
I dare say if we look back in the archives
of MIT or the New York Times,
253
00:19:16,816 --> 00:19:22,382
we won't find a lot of people or a lot of
courses about globalization in 1970 or 1980.
254
00:19:22,417 --> 00:19:27,158
People had eastern policies and they had
western policies.
255
00:19:27,193 --> 00:19:30,046
They talked about the north and they talked
about the south,
256
00:19:30,081 --> 00:19:34,325
but no one was really talking about
globalization because there was a wall in the way.
257
00:19:34,360 --> 00:19:41,766
And the fall of the wall was a huge
flattener because it allowed us to see and think of the world as a
single flat plane.
258
00:19:43,340 --> 00:19:48,657
I call this first flattener when the walls
came down and the Windows came up
259
00:19:48,692 --> 00:19:55,858
because the Windows operating system 3.0,
the breakthrough system shifted 5 months after the fall of the Berlin
Wall
260
00:19:55,893 --> 00:19:58,610
And so those two things happened at the
same time.
261
00:20:00,099 --> 00:20:10,626
Not only the wall came down and gave us the
ability to look at the world through a single space, but we are suddenly
endowed with a kind of a single graphic user interface to all start to
look at the world through.
263
00:20:13,604 --> 00:20:17,115
That was the first flattener. The 2nd
flattener is 8/9/1995.
264
00:20:17,150 --> 00:20:22,426
I consider 8/9/1995 one of the most
important days in western civilization.
265
00:20:22,461 --> 00:20:31,257
August 9th 1995 is the date a small
start-up company in Mountain View, California called Netscape went
public.
266
00:20:31,292 --> 00:20:35,131
And Netscape is going to be the huge
flattener for 3 reasons.
267
00:20:35,166 --> 00:20:39,178
First of all, it was really the Netscape
browser
268
00:20:39,213 --> 00:20:44,866
that gave us the 1st commercial browser
that really brought the Internet alive,
269
00:20:44,901 --> 00:20:49,553
brought it alive in the way that grandma
and grandpa, grandson and granddaughter could use it,
270
00:20:49,588 --> 00:20:53,593
not just the computer scientists trained in
MIT.
271
00:20:53,628 --> 00:20:58,835
And so, the huge breakthrough of Netscape
was it, in my view, brought the Internet alive,
272
00:20:58,870 --> 00:21:09,298
as a device that people from more different
places in more different ways could connect with one another than ever
before.
273
00:21:09,333 --> 00:21:13,428
The second thing that Netscape contributed
to, certainty didn’t do it alone with
274
00:21:13,463 --> 00:21:17,537
Netscape commercialized a set of
transmission protocols based on open standard
275
00:21:17,572 --> 00:21:26,034
which help ensure that the Internet would
be interoperable and won’t be the province of any single company or
anyone’s ward garden.
276
00:21:26,069 --> 00:21:30,123
Third, the most importantly to me, Netscape
triggered the .com boom,
277
00:21:30,158 --> 00:21:32,522
and that triggered the dot com bubble.
278
00:21:32,557 --> 00:21:44,772
and that triggered the accidental,
ridiculous, absurd, outrageous, insane overinvestment, of something
closed to a trillion dollars in fiber optic cable in 5 years.
279
00:21:44,807 --> 00:21:52,751
And that crazy, absurd, ridiculous
investment of nearly a trillion dollars in fiber optic cable in 5 years
280
00:21:52,786 --> 00:21:59,904
accidentally made Beijing, Bangalore and
Bethesda, where I live, next-door neighbors,
281
00:21:59,939 --> 00:22:03,688
without anyone, anywhere planning it to
happen.
282
00:22:03,723 --> 00:22:07,000
You recall how it to place.
283
00:22:07,035 --> 00:22:09,733
Netscape went public on the morning of
1995.8.9,
284
00:22:09,768 --> 00:22:13,706
at the price of 28 dollars. That was the
opening price.
285
00:22:13,741 --> 00:22:18,893
The stock opened the day at 71, closed the
day at 56.
286
00:22:18,928 --> 00:22:27,374
And we all looked at that and said, “Wow,
there is gold over them there’re hells.”
287
00:22:28,446 --> 00:22:32,125
And so what we do? We all went out and we
brought Global Crossing,
288
00:22:32,160 --> 00:22:36,708
Nortel, Lucent.
289
00:22:36,743 --> 00:22:39,470
Come on, admit it. It was in your 4O1K.
290
00:22:40,798 --> 00:22:43,405
And those companies took our money
291
00:22:43,440 --> 00:22:53,369
and our mutual funds and they laid mile
after mile of under-sea and over-land fiber optic cable.
292
00:22:54,600 --> 00:22:57,162
And I only have to tell this crowd about
fiber optic cable
293
00:22:57,197 --> 00:23:03,362
that it is the gift that keeps on giving,
294
00:23:04,309 --> 00:23:13,371
Coz once it’s set in the ground, all you
have to do is to keep improving those switches at each end and you light
more and more capacities.
295
00:23:14,541 --> 00:23:20,596
And basically, that glut, that massive glut
of fiber optic cable,
296
00:23:20,631 --> 00:23:29,508
allowed suddenly more people in more places
to communicate virtually for free than ever before in the history of the
planet.
297
00:23:30,795 --> 00:23:34,771
So, that really is what the Netscape
flattener was all about.
298
00:23:34,806 --> 00:23:36,989
The third flattener I simply called
work-flow.
299
00:23:37,024 --> 00:23:44,198
And work flow is simply my catch-all for
all the software and all the standards
300
00:23:44,233 --> 00:23:52,309
that allowed work to flow, everything from
Microsoft Word ,to Microsoft Net-Meeting, to all the proprietor software
that you are right and work on in your daily work. |
|
301
00:23:52,344 --> 00:23:57,273
再一次，如果我們回到80年代的麻省理工
302
00:23:57,308 --> 00:24:02,739
入學部門可能用微軟的軟體，會計部門用Norvell
303
00:24:02,774 --> 00:24:08,272
兩個部門都比以前有效率多了，因為他們有電腦
304
00:24:08,307 --> 00:24:12,018
但這些應用程式彼此無法連結
305
00:24:12,053 --> 00:24:16,984
當然，我們知道現在還是有很多軟體彼此無法連結
306
00:24:17,019 --> 00:24:25,432
但在90年代中期的革命，讓更多的軟體可以和更多別的軟體連結
307
00:24:25,467 --> 00:24:29,401
這樣的結果，這樣的軟體革命成果
308
00:24:29,402 --> 00:24:32,577
從所謂的中間軟體到傳輸協定
309
00:24:32,612 --> 00:24:42,041
是讓人們可以史無前例的在更多事情上跟其他人合作
310
00:24:42,076 --> 00:24:46,328
當我的軟體可以和你的軟體合作時
311
00:24:46,363 --> 00:24:52,936
我們可以在虛擬空間裡史無前例的緊密合作
312
00:24:52,971 --> 00:25:00,111
我認為，在90年代中期，是所謂平坦世界的創世紀
313
00:25:00,146 --> 00:25:08,614
因為，當你考慮到Netscape革命，人們可以
史無前例的透過網路與其他人溝通
314
00:25:09,304 --> 00:25:16,599
然後，再加上軟體的革命，
史無前例的讓更多軟體可以連結別的軟體
315
00:25:16,634 --> 00:25:25,382
我們所創造出來的，就是一個足以讓全球進行合作的平台
316
00:25:25,417 --> 00:25:35,933
突然間，有更多人，
可以透過網路史無前例的在更多事務上相連結
317
00:25:35,968 --> 00:25:40,228
這對我來說，就是世界地形開始被夷平的創世紀
318
00:25:40,263 --> 00:25:46,061
接下來的六個夷平機制，則是從這個平台上產生的新合作方式
319
00:25:46,096 --> 00:25:48,829
並且繼續讓世界變得更平坦
320
00:25:48,864 --> 00:25:50,359
我很快的介紹一下它們
321
00:25:50,394 --> 00:25:52,200
第一個，當然就是外包
322
00:25:52,235 --> 00:25:55,537
外包不過僅是一種新的合作模式
323
00:25:55,572 --> 00:26:00,465
是由人與人，軟體與軟體之間的合作所促成的
324
00:26:00,500 --> 00:26:09,218
今日，如果麻省理工願意的話，可以把會計部門
委外給在這個平台上的北波士頓、北達科塔州、北邦加羅爾
325
00:26:09,253 --> 00:26:13,122
每個地區幾乎都是平等的存在
326
00:26:13,157 --> 00:26:16,103
外包是種新的合作方式
327
00:26:16,138 --> 00:26:19,312
另外一種合作方式是境外生產
328
00:26:19,347 --> 00:26:26,825
我把這些都按照時間來編排，所以外包是在2000年
而境外生產則是在中國加入世界貿易組織的時候
329
00:26:26,860 --> 00:26:29,560
將境外生產帶到了一個截然不同的等級
330
00:26:29,595 --> 00:26:34,282
我可以把我的工廠
從美國俄亥俄州的Canton，移到中國的廣東
331
00:26:34,317 --> 00:26:37,441
並且將它整合進我的全球生產體系中
332
00:26:37,476 --> 00:26:38,800
這就是境外生產
333
00:26:38,835 --> 00:26:41,713
第三種新的合作方式是開放原始碼
334
00:26:42,641 --> 00:26:48,065
開放原始碼對我來說是個動詞，是將原始碼開放的新合作方式
335
00:26:48,100 --> 00:26:53,919
是像諸位中的半數人一樣的電腦怪才，回家半夜搞著Linux作業系統
336
00:26:54,421 --> 00:26:57,215
今日Linux已經佔據了全世界15%的作業系統市場
337
00:26:57,250 --> 00:27:02,333
巴西幾個月前才宣佈，要把政府的所有作業系統換成Linux
338
00:27:02,368 --> 00:27:07,941
顯然這是全新的有創意的合作模式
339
00:27:08,885 --> 00:27:12,671
不知道微軟會怎麼想，不知道你如果是Bill
Gates會怎麼樣？
340
00:27:12,706 --> 00:27:15,003
說真的，你們有多想要成為Bill
Gates？
341
00:27:16,051 --> 00:27:22,244
舊的模式是有任何人、任何地方挑戰你，你就減價
342
00:27:23,362 --> 00:27:26,776
但是，要做到免費是很困難的
343
00:27:26,811 --> 00:27:28,407
要免費是很困難的
344
00:27:28,442 --> 00:27:38,166
你很難成為那一群願意免費在家熬夜撰寫下一代作業系統
或是下一代微軟WORD或是ADOBEACROBAT
READER的電腦怪才
345
00:27:38,201 --> 00:27:40,733
有些人這樣做是因為他們痛恨微軟
346
00:27:40,768 --> 00:27:44,037
讓我們老實說吧，很多人這樣做是因為他們恨微軟
347
00:27:44,072 --> 00:27:49,133
事實上，如果沒有微軟，會不會有開放原始碼運動
348
00:27:49,168 --> 00:27:56,030
還有其他人這樣做的原因是諸位最瞭解的：
只因為單純的科學研究
349
00:27:56,065 --> 00:27:59,366
嘿嘿，看看我想出來的這個運算法！
350
00:27:59,401 --> 00:28:03,614
看看這個升級程式，超酷的，你一定得要試一試！
351
00:28:06,133 --> 00:28:07,292
但不管他們作的原因為何
352
00:28:07,327 --> 00:28:10,773
這是全美國唯一會聽懂這種對話笑點的聽眾
353
00:28:10,808 --> 00:28:12,940
真是太好了，太棒了
354
00:28:16,018 --> 00:28:18,289
其他人只會坐在那邊：這傢伙在瞎扯什麼啊！
355
00:28:20,794 --> 00:28:22,448
不管他們這樣作的原因為何
356
00:28:22,483 --> 00:28:26,992
就像Firefox一樣，這是一種全新的合作方式
357
00:28:27,027 --> 00:28:33,047
Firefox是一個19歲的Stanford大學生
和另一個24歲的New
Zealand人合作出來的產品
358
00:28:33,082 --> 00:28:35,735
他們至今還沒碰過面
359
00:28:35,770 --> 00:28:40,025
在一天內，抱歉，是一個月內被下載了一千萬次
360
00:28:40,060 --> 00:28:43,279
一個月就搶佔了微軟的IE百分之五的市場
361
00:28:43,314 --> 00:28:48,007
所以，這是一種極為強力的合作模式
362
00:28:48,042 --> 00:28:54,447
而我今天有榮幸瞭解的麻省理工學院開放式課程計畫
363
00:28:54,482 --> 00:28:56,375
就正好是另一種表現
364
00:28:56,376 --> 00:29:00,615
我認為，這是一個極為有力的創意發展
365
00:29:00,650 --> 00:29:02,305
只要世界變得越平坦就越有力
366
00:29:02,340 --> 00:29:07,642
第四種新的合作方式我叫做供應鍊化
367
00:29:07,677 --> 00:29:09,987
供應鍊化就是Wal-Mart所做的
368
00:29:11,731 --> 00:29:16,547
那就是將全球供應鍊效率徹底提升到每一個要素上
369
00:29:17,476 --> 00:29:22,760
所以，如果你從Brookline鎮的Wal-Mart架上拿下一個產品
另一個產品就會在中國深圳被製造出來
370
00:29:22,795 --> 00:29:26,721
如果Wal-Mart是個國家，
它將會是今日中國第八大的貿易對象
371
00:29:26,756 --> 00:29:28,961
甚至領先加拿大和澳洲
372
00:29:29,729 --> 00:29:36,208
我在此的朋友Yossi
Sheffi教過我有關供應鍊的知識
373
00:29:36,243 --> 00:29:42,054
他有句話說的很好：製造東西？製造東西很簡單。
374
00:29:42,089 --> 00:29:45,455
設計和布置供應鍊，那才是真正困難的地方
375
00:29:47,437 --> 00:29:50,094
他說：想想Wal-Mart
376
00:29:50,954 --> 00:29:55,380
Wal-Mart是美國最大的公司，但他們卻什麼都不製造
377
00:29:56,693 --> 00:30:01,850
只是將供應鍊效率徹底提升到每一個要素上
378
00:30:01,885 --> 00:30:03,892
一種全新的合作模式
379
00:30:03,927 --> 00:30:07,306
第五種新的合作模式我叫它作內包（委內）
380
00:30:07,341 --> 00:30:09,572
UPS所做的就叫做內包
381
00:30:09,607 --> 00:30:13,035
你知道那些開著可笑褐色卡車，穿著可笑褐色短褲的人
382
00:30:14,075 --> 00:30:19,994
如果你以為他們作的僅只是送包裹，那你就太過大意了
383
00:30:21,159 --> 00:30:23,984
他們現在在作什麼？在他們的卡車上有暗示
384
00:30:24,019 --> 00:30:27,697
現在寫著，「同步你的世界」
385
00:30:27,732 --> 00:30:30,470
因為現在UPS的工作包括了公司內勤運輸
386
00:30:30,896 --> 00:30:37,941
他們來到你的總部，也就是接管你總部（脖子）以下的
所有內勤運輸，我稱這為內包
387
00:30:39,067 --> 00:30:41,334
假設你有一台Toshiba筆記型電腦
388
00:30:41,369 --> 00:30:45,432
而它壞了，所以你就看保證書，上面寫著要打1-800-HELP
389
00:30:45,467 --> 00:30:46,801
所以你就打了1-800-HELP
390
00:30:46,836 --> 00:30:49,633
然後他們告訴你，
把你的Toshiba筆記型電腦送到附近的UPS快遞點
391
00:30:49,668 --> 00:30:52,408
把它送給我們，我們會在72小時之內送還
392
00:30:52,443 --> 00:30:53,616
你所不知道的是...
393
00:30:53,651 --> 00:31:00,123
你的Toshiba電腦從那家店，
到Kentuky州的Louisville機場UPS物流中心
394
00:31:00,158 --> 00:31:04,098
在當地Louisville機場的機庫無塵室中，
395
00:31:04,133 --> 00:31:08,201
你的Toshiba筆記型電腦是由UPS的員工來修復
396
00:31:08,236 --> 00:31:11,168
它永遠不需要真正接觸Toshiba的部門
397
00:31:11,203 --> 00:31:14,505
Toshiba已經把這部分完全內包給UPS
398
00:31:14,540 --> 00:31:19,160
Nike.com，你想要找雙新鞋穿，到Nike.com上看看
399
00:31:19,195 --> 00:31:24,624
你所不知道的是，螢幕的另一端是個穿著可笑褐色短褲的人
400
00:31:25,928 --> 00:31:33,679
他收到你的訂單，從UPS管理的Nike倉庫取出鞋子和包裝
|
301
00:23:52,344 --> 00:23:57,273
Again I will go back to MIT probably in
the, sometime in the 80s.
302
00:23:57,308 --> 00:24:02,739
You know the admissions department would be
probably running the Microsoft, the bookkeeping department was running
Novell.
303
00:24:02,774 --> 00:24:08,272
Both departments were much more efficient
because they had computers,
304
00:24:08,307 --> 00:24:12,018
but applications did not connect to
applications.
305
00:24:12,053 --> 00:24:16,984
Now, a lot of applications still don’t
connect applications, we certainly know that.
306
00:24:17,019 --> 00:24:25,432
But over the 90s, there was a revolution in
software that has connected a lot of more applications with a lot of
more other applications,
307
00:24:25,467 --> 00:24:29,401
and the net result of that created
revolution from middle ware to
308
00:24:29,402 --> 00:24:32,5
all kinds of transmission protocols.
309
00:24:32,612 --> 00:24:42,041
The net result of that is that people are
able to work together with other people on more stuff than ever before.
310
00:24:42,076 --> 00:24:46,328
When my applications can work with your
applications virtually that we don’t have to think about it,
311
00:24:46,363 --> 00:24:52,936
it means that we can work together like
never before.
312
00:24:52,971 --> 00:25:00,111
And this, I would argue, some point in the
mid 1990s was what I called the genesis moment of the flat world,
313
00:25:00,146 --> 00:25:08,614
because when you take that Netscape
revolution, people able to connect with people over a network like never
before,
314
00:25:09,304 --> 00:25:16,599
and then you take the revolution in
software of more and more applications connecting to more other
applications than never before,
315
00:25:16,634 --> 00:25:25,382
what we created, willy-nilly, was a global
platform for multiple forms of collaboration.
316
00:25:25,417 --> 00:25:35,933
Suddenly more people could collaborate and
connect on more stuff than ever before in the history of the world.
317
00:25:35,968 --> 00:25:40,228
And that, to me, was the genesis moment for
the flattening of the world.
318
00:25:40,263 --> 00:25:46,061
Now the next six flatteners are the new
forms of collaboration
31900:25:46,096 --> 00:25:48,829
that sprang from this platform and have
come back to flatten the world even more.
320
00:25:48,864 --> 00:25:50,359
I’ll go through them quickly.
321
00:25:50,394 --> 00:25:52,200
The first of course is ‘outsourcing’.
322
00:25:52,235 --> 00:25:55,537 Outsourcing
is just a new form of collaboration
323
00:25:55,572 --> 00:26:00,465
empowered by this platform of people to
people and application to application.
324
00:26:00,500 --> 00:26:09,218
Now, MIT, if it wants to, can out-source
the whole bookkeeping department to North Boston, North Dakota or North
Bangalore.
325
00:26:09,253 --> 00:26:13,122
Of this platform either one would be almost
equally easy.
326
00:26:13,157 --> 00:26:16,103
Outsourcing, a new form of collaboration.
327
00:26:16,138 --> 00:26:19,312
The next new form of collaboration is
‘Off-shoring.’
328
00:26:19,347 --> 00:26:26,825
I build each of these around the dates, so
out-sourcing was built around Y2K, off-shoring was built around when
China joined the World Trade Organization
32900:26:26,860 --> 00:26:29,560
which takes off-shoring to a whole new
level.
330
00:26:29,595 --> 00:26:34,282
Now I take my whole factory from Canton,
Ohio and I move it to Canton in China
331
00:26:34,317 --> 00:26:37,441
and integrate it into my global production
system-
332
00:26:37,476 --> 00:26:38,800
off-shoring.
333
00:26:38,835 --> 00:26:41,713
Third new form of collaboration is
open-sourcing.
334
00:26:42,641 --> 00:26:48,065
‘Open-source’, to me, is a verb. It’s
open-sourcing. It is actually a new form of collaboration
335
00:26:48,100 --> 00:26:53,919
It’s a bunch of geeks like half of you,
sitting at home, working on the LINUX operating system
336
00:26:54,421 --> 00:26:57,215
which todaythe day has 15% of global OS
market.
337
00:26:57,250 --> 00:27:02,333 Brazil just
announced a couple month ago. It’s converting the whole Brazilian
government to LINUX.
338
00:27:02,368 --> 00:27:07,941
This is a whole new form of collaboration
obviously, and innovation.
339
00:27:08,885 --> 00:27:12,671
And you know then, how it likes to be
Microsoft, how it makes Bill Gates.
340
00:27:12,706 --> 00:27:15,003
And how would you like to be Bill Gates?
341
00:27:16,051 --> 00:27:22,244
So, your old model: if anyone challenges
you and you undercut them on price.
342
00:27:23,362 --> 00:27:26,776
And, it’s hard to be free.
343
00:27:26,811 --> 00:27:28,407
It’s hard to be free
344
00:27:28,442 --> 00:27:38,166
It’s hard to be a bunch of geeks sitting at
home writing the next operation system or the next version of Microsoft
Word or Adobe Acrobat for free.
345
00:27:38,201 --> 00:27:40,733
Some doing it because they hate Microsoft.
346
00:27:40,768 --> 00:27:44,037
And let’s be honest, many doing it because
they hate Microsoft.
347
00:27:44,072 --> 00:27:49,133
That’s just a question: whether there’ll be
an open source movement if there were no Microsoft.
348
00:27:49,168 --> 00:27:56,030
And many others doing it for all the
reasons you, this crowd understands the best, which is the purest view
of science of it.
349
00:27:56,065 --> 00:27:59,366
“Look at this algorithm I came up with,
350
00:27:59,401 --> 00:28:03,614
look at this patch, this is so cool, you
gotta try this.”
351
00:28:06,133 --> 00:28:07,292
But whatever reason they are doing it…
352
00:28:07,327 --> 00:28:10,773
This is only crowd in America who laughs at
this line.
353
00:28:10,808 --> 00:28:12,940
It is so good, it is great!
354
00:28:16,018 --> 00:28:18,289
Other people just sit there. ‘What’s he
talking about?”
355
00:28:20,794 --> 00:28:22,448
But for whatever reason they are doing it,
356
00:28:22,483 --> 00:28:26,992
this, to me, is a whole new form of
collaborate. Firefox.
357
00:28:27,027 --> 00:28:33,047
Here is web browser produced by a 19-year
old at Stanford along with a 24 year old from New Zealand
358
00:28:33,082 --> 00:28:35,735
who had never met yet.
359
00:28:35,770 --> 00:28:40,025
And, you know in one month, it has been
downloaded 10 million times!
360
00:28:40,060 --> 00:28:43,279
Takes 5% of Microsoft Explorer’s market in
a month.
361
00:28:43,314 --> 00:28:48,007
So this is an incredibly powerful new form
of collaboration.
362
00:28:48,042 --> 00:28:54,447
And the Open University at MIT is doing
which I had a pleasure of learning all about today.
363
00:28:54,482 --> 00:28:56,375
It’s just another expression of this
364
00:28:56,376 --> 00:29:00,615
and it is going to be, I think, incredibly
powerful form of innovation.
365
00:29:00,650 --> 00:29:02,305
The flatter the world gets.
366
00:29:02,340 --> 00:29:07,642
The 4th new form of collaboration, I called
‘supply chaining.’
367
00:29:07,677 --> 00:29:09,987
Supply chaining is what Wal-Mart does,
368
00:29:11,731 --> 00:29:16,547
i.e. designing a global supply chain down
to the last atom of efficiency.
369
00:29:17,476 --> 00:29:22,760
So, you take an item off the shelf from the
Wal-Mart in Brooklyn, and another is immediately made in Shenzhen,
China.
370
00:29:22,795 --> 00:29:26,721
If Wal-Mart were a country, it would be
China’s 8th largest trading partner today,
371
00:29:26,756 --> 00:29:28,961
ahead of Canada and Australia.
372
00:29:29,729 --> 00:29:36,208
And my friend Yossi Sheffi who’s here has
taught me something about supply chain.
373
00:29:36,243 --> 00:29:42,054
And he has a nice saying, which is that:
〃Making
stuff? Making stuff. That is easy.
374
00:29:42,089 --> 00:29:45,455
Supply chain? That’s really hard.
375
00:29:47,437 --> 00:29:50,094
Think about Wal-Mart” as he said.
376
00:29:50,954 --> 00:29:55,380
Wal-Mart is the biggest company in America,
and they don’t make anything.
377
00:29:56,693 --> 00:30:01,850
Just a supply chain, down to the last atom
of efficiency.
378
00:30:01,885 --> 00:30:03,892
Whole new form of collaboration.
379
00:30:03,927 --> 00:30:07,306
The fifth new form of collaboration I
called ‘in-sourcing.’
380
00:30:07,341 --> 00:30:09,572
In-sourcing is what UPS does.
381
00:30:09,607 --> 00:30:13,035
You know the people in the funny brown
trucks in the funny brown shorts.
382
00:30:14,075 --> 00:30:19,994
If you think all they’re doing is
delivering packages, you are not paying attention.
383
00:30:21,159 --> 00:30:23,984
There’s a little hint of what they are up
to is on the side of their truck now.
384
00:30:24,019 --> 00:30:27,697
It simply says ‘Your world synchronized.”
385
00:30:27,732 --> 00:30:30,470
Coz what UPS does now is internal
logistics.
386
00:30:30,896 --> 00:30:37,941
They come into your company, right up to
your neck, right up to headquarters, and take over your entire, internal
logistics. That’s I called in-sourcing.
387
00:30:39,067 --> 00:30:41,334
So you have a Toshiba laptop
388
00:30:41,369 --> 00:30:45,432
and it breaks, and you go to your warranty,
and it says called 1-800-HELP.
389
00:30:45,467 --> 00:30:46,801
You called 1-800-HELP
390
00:30:46,836 --> 00:30:49,633
and they tell you take your Toshiba laptop
to the UPS store
391
00:30:49,668 --> 00:30:52,408
and send it to us and had it back to in 72
hours.
392
00:30:52,443 --> 00:30:53,616
Here’s what you don’t know.
393
00:30:53,651 --> 00:31:00,123
Your Toshiba laptop goes from the UPS store
to the UPS hub at Louisville airport in Kentucky
394
00:31:00,158 --> 00:31:04,098
where in an airline hanger at Louisville
airport, in a clean room,
395
00:31:04,133 --> 00:31:08,201
your Toshiba laptop is repaired by a UPS
employee.
396
00:31:08,236 --> 00:31:11,168
It never touches Toshiba’s hands.
397
00:31:11,203 --> 00:31:14,505
Toshiba has in-sourced that entirely to
UPS.
398
00:31:14,540 --> 00:31:19,160
Nike.com. You wanna get the kids a new pair
of sneakers. You go on-line Nike.com.
399
00:31:19,195 --> 00:31:24,624
What you don’t know is on the other side of
the screen, there’s someone in funny brown shorts
400 00:31:25,928 --> 00:31:33,679
who is taking down your order, picking and
packing the shoes from the Nike w house that UPS manages,
|
|
401
00:31:33,714 --> 00:31:37,712
而且把東西送到你手中，以UPS的名義來收錢
402
00:31:37,747 --> 00:31:40,025
當你看到Pappa
John's的披薩卡車經過的時候
403
00:31:41,025 --> 00:31:42,050
猜猜看是誰在開車？
404
00:31:43,485 --> 00:31:47,161
跟我說一遍，是穿著褐色可笑短褲的人在開車
405
00:31:47,196 --> 00:31:55,795
因為Pappa
John's將它們的麵團
從中央廚房運送到門市的過程內包給UPS
406
00:31:55,830 --> 00:31:58,010
這也是一個全新模式的合作
407
00:31:58,045 --> 00:32:02,609
他的分工變得越微型，你就必須有越多標準化的作業
408
00:32:02,644 --> 00:32:06,166
慢慢的，這將會成為極為重要的夷平機制
409
00:32:06,201 --> 00:32:11,530
現今可能有數百，甚至數千家公司再也不碰觸他們的商品了
410
00:32:11,565 --> 00:32:17,529
他們不過只是一個行銷空殼，將內部的所有內勤運送都內包給UPS
411
00:32:18,290 --> 00:32:22,498
第六個到最後的夷平機制我稱呼為資訊流通化
412
00:32:22,533 --> 00:32:25,241
我就是以資訊流通化來稱呼Google的
413
00:32:25,276 --> 00:32:27,713
也是我稱呼網路搜尋的方式
414
00:32:27,748 --> 00:32:33,873
因為我現在可以只靠著我自己獲取資訊，獲取情報
415
00:32:34,585 --> 00:32:37,673
TiVo的隨選錄影是一種娛樂的資訊流通化
416
00:32:37,708 --> 00:32:41,513
資訊流通化是一種極為有力的合作模式
417
00:32:41,514 --> 00:32:47,344
讓我們回顧一下，
前三個創造了一個讓各種合作模式可以運作的平台
418
00:32:47,379 --> 00:32:55,215
然後接下來的六個新合作模式：
外包、境外生產、開放原始碼、供應鍊化、內包、資訊流通化
419
00:32:55,250 --> 00:32:56,593
這樣是九個
420
00:32:56,628 --> 00:32:58,922
第十個是什麼？我說過有十個
421
00:32:59,841 --> 00:33:03,994
在書中，我認為第十個應該被稱作活化劑
422
00:33:04,029 --> 00:33:11,010
這活化劑是無線化、網路語音傳輸和檔案分享
423
00:33:11,907 --> 00:33:14,042
這些活化劑的功能是
424
00:33:14,077 --> 00:33:19,289
是將這所有的六種新合作模式超頻推動
425
00:33:19,892 --> 00:33:27,002
所以讓我可以在任何地方、
任何地點、任何時間，完全機動的運作
426
00:33:27,818 --> 00:33:33,865
這是第二章，也就是我認為夷平世界的十個力量
427
00:33:34,546 --> 00:33:39,769
在講完第三章之後我就結束，
第三章是想要將最基本的想法整合在一起
428
00:33:40,506 --> 00:33:42,403
第三章我稱作三次機緣巧合的匯流
429
00:33:42,438 --> 00:33:45,856
基本上我的看法是，在2000年時
430
00:33:45,891 --> 00:33:52,963
有三次機緣的匯流，塑造了我所認為的二十一世紀簡史
431
00:33:52,998 --> 00:33:58,197
我認為，第一次的匯流是這十個夷平機制的會合
432
00:33:58,232 --> 00:33:59,707
就在2000年時
433
00:33:59,742 --> 00:34:06,634
其力量匯聚成了一個轉捩點，彼此之間更互相作用、互相補強
434
00:34:06,669 --> 00:34:11,651
所以，資訊流通化協助了外包，外包協助了境外生產
435
00:34:11,686 --> 00:34:19,883
開放原始碼驅動了內包，
所有這十個夷平機制的互補力量都開始彼此合作
436
00:34:20,874 --> 00:34:22,354
當這事情發生時
437
00:34:23,130 --> 00:34:25,458
它們創造了一個平坦的世界
438
00:34:25,493 --> 00:34:27,067
我所指的平坦世界是：
439
00:34:27,102 --> 00:34:40,979
它們創造了網路連結的全球平台，不論時間、距離、地形，
甚至語言，讓各種模式的工作和知識得以分享與分配
440
00:34:41,014 --> 00:34:43,612
這就是我口中世界是平的的意義
441
00:34:43,647 --> 00:34:49,882
我是說，
我們創造了一個全球網路平台來分享知識和分配工作
442
00:34:49,917 --> 00:34:55,898
不受時間、距離、地形的限制，
甚至也越來越不受語言的限制
443
00:34:55,933 --> 00:34:58,181
我相信那個平台
444
00:34:58,216 --> 00:35:05,667
如果你把那個平台納入考量，
你就可以明白更多今日世界發生的事情
445
00:35:05,702 --> 00:35:09,290
遠勝過用任何其他的框架去衡量
446
00:35:09,325 --> 00:35:14,154
你可以解釋能源需求的上升，你可以解釋外包的增加
447
00:35:14,189 --> 00:35:18,338
你也可以解釋麻省理工的開放式課程
448
00:35:20,618 --> 00:35:23,561
你也可以解釋911事件和Al-Qaeda
449
00:35:24,226 --> 00:35:31,025
所以，第一次的匯集是這些創造出全球平台的力量匯集
450
00:35:31,060 --> 00:35:33,864
越來越多的人可以隨插隨用這個平台
451
00:35:34,560 --> 00:35:38,328
第二次匯集，我們正在經歷它的開端
452
00:35:38,363 --> 00:35:42,088
是我們每個人都必須學著去平行化我們自己
453
00:35:42,123 --> 00:35:47,216
我們都必須改變我們的商業習慣、學習習慣
454
00:35:47,251 --> 00:35:51,567
必須有創意的修正它們去適應這個新平台
455
00:35:51,602 --> 00:35:57,664
因為，我們正離開
一個以垂直方式的控制與指揮的儲藏庫來創造價值的世界
456
00:35:57,699 --> 00:36:03,873
而變成一個因你和什麼人有連結、
和什麼人合作來創造價值的世界
457
00:36:03,908 --> 00:36:08,729
我們正位在這改變的前緣，一切正從垂直變得水平
458
00:36:09,346 --> 00:36:11,272
我想，瞭解這最好的方式是
459
00:36:11,307 --> 00:36:16,202
Stanford的經濟學家Paul
David寫了一篇很棒的文章
460
00:36:16,237 --> 00:36:18,195
我想你們很多人應該要去讀的一篇有關電力的文章
461
00:36:18,196 --> 00:36:23,347
他問了一個問題：當電力首次出現的時候，
為什麼我們的生產力沒有突然增加
462
00:36:23,348 --> 00:36:25,412
他所研究的結果是
463
00:36:25,447 --> 00:36:29,867
要獲得電力馬達取代蒸汽引擎的生產力提升
464
00:36:29,902 --> 00:36:31,940
我們必須先重新設計建築
465
00:36:31,975 --> 00:36:36,204
高大的多層建築物，可以容納蒸汽引擎和各種滑輪
466
00:36:36,239 --> 00:36:42,134
改成小型的低矮建築，讓工廠可用電力馬達運轉
467
00:36:42,169 --> 00:36:45,639
管理者必須要改變他們的管理方法
468
00:36:45,674 --> 00:36:48,448
建築師得要適應和修正新建築的設計
469
00:36:48,483 --> 00:36:52,391
車間管理員得要修正他們的管理方式
470
00:36:52,426 --> 00:36:56,996
有數以百萬計的習慣和結構必須要改變
471
00:36:57,031 --> 00:37:00,339
一旦他們在某個轉捩點作了改變，轟的一聲
472
00:37:00,374 --> 00:37:04,827
那我們才能真正的獲得電力所導致的生產力大幅提昇
473
00:37:04,862 --> 00:37:14,549
我認為，我們也正如同電力的改變一樣，
正好在水平的平台上，正學著改變自己的習慣，將自己水平化
474
00:37:15,526 --> 00:37:19,813
事實上，我是在寫這書時，非常個人的狀況下發現的
475
00:37:19,848 --> 00:37:22,293
我住在Maryland州，Bethesda
476
00:37:22,328 --> 00:37:26,989
我的女兒是大二的學生，她在Connectiuct州New
Haven讀書
477
00:37:27,024 --> 00:37:29,622
我去年三月準備要去看她
478
00:37:29,657 --> 00:37:36,055
要從Maryland的Bethesda
要去Connectiuct的New
Haven實在是有夠麻煩的
479
00:37:36,090 --> 00:37:40,822
你得要開車從Bethesda到Baltimore的BWI機場
480
00:37:40,857 --> 00:37:44,622
搭乘Southwest航空到Hartford
481
00:37:44,657 --> 00:37:47,688
然後開車一小時從Hartford到New
Haven
482
00:37:47,723 --> 00:37:52,233
我去年春天去的時候帶了兩個包包和衣服給我女兒
483
00:37:54,869 --> 00:37:57,929
我準備搭Southwest航空去，我很喜歡Southwest航空
484
00:37:57,964 --> 00:38:01,954
諸位可能沒坐過Southwest航空，但它是沒有保留機位的
485
00:38:01,989 --> 00:38:06,096
你只會拿到一張機票，上面寫著A、B或C
486
00:38:06,888 --> 00:38:09,671
你絕對不會想要Southwest航空上坐C的位置
487
00:38:09,706 --> 00:38:13,781
特別是當你帶了兩個大袋子要給女兒的時候
488
00:38:13,816 --> 00:38:17,183
還有東西你想要放在頭上的位置上，而不是底下的位置
489
00:38:17,218 --> 00:38:18,906
特別是這樣的時候你根本就不想是B，你想要是A
490
00:38:19,562 --> 00:38:24,481
沒問題，我很酷，所以我用了Southwest的電子機票
491
00:38:24,516 --> 00:38:28,287
而且我在起飛前95分鐘就到了BWI機場
492
00:38:28,322 --> 00:38:30,736
因為我想要坐A的位置，沒人想要坐B
493
00:38:31,739 --> 00:38:35,561
所以，我到了Southwest的電子機票機前，插入我的VISA卡
494
00:38:35,596 --> 00:38:38,569
我的機票出來了，上面竟然寫著B！
495
00:38:39,465 --> 00:38:46,536
我說：媽的，這東西被動過手腳，有問題，比賭城還糟糕！
496
00:38:46,571 --> 00:38:49,039
我絕不可能拿到B！
497
00:38:49,074 --> 00:38:53,305
我在起飛前95分鐘就到了，我絕不可能拿到B！
498
00:38:57,305 --> 00:39:00,448
當我拿著我的肉桂麵包，站在B的隊伍中時
499
00:39:00,483 --> 00:39:03,832
呼，我有夠生氣的！
500
00:39:05,639 --> 00:39:09,350
我站在B的隊伍裡面不爽了一小時
|
401
00:31:33,714 --> 00:31:37,712
and shipping them to you and collecting the
money on behalves of UPS.
402
00:31:37,747 --> 00:31:40,025
See the Pappa John’s pizza truck go by.
403
00:31:41,025 --> 00:31:42,050
Guess who’s driving?
404
00:31:43,485 --> 00:31:47,161
Say it with me now: someone in funny brown
shorts!
405
00:31:47,196 --> 00:31:55,795
Because Pappa John has in-sourced the
delivery of their dough from the bakery to their outlets to UPS.
406
00:31:55,830 --> 00:31:58,010
So this is a whole new form of
collaboration.
407
00:31:58,045 --> 00:32:02,609
It requires more micro you get a huge
amount of standardization and, as a result, you’e going to be a huge
flattener over time.
408
00:32:02,644 --> 00:32:06,166
There are hundred, probably thousand
companies today
409
00:32:06,201 --> 00:32:11,530
that no longer touches any of their
products.
410
00:32:11,565 --> 00:32:17,529
They are nothing but marketing shelves, who
have in-sourced, basically their inners, to UPS.
411 00:32:18,290 --> 00:32:22,498
The sixth and the last new form of
collaboration, I called ‘informing’.
412
00:32:22,533 --> 00:32:25,241
Informing, and that is my name for Google.
413
00:32:25,276 --> 00:32:27,713
That is my name for search
414
00:32:27,748 --> 00:32:33,873
because I can now inform myself, I can
collaborate with data all by myself.
415
00:32:34,585 --> 00:32:37,673
TIVO is a form of informing for
entertainment
416
00:32:37,708 --> 00:32:41,513
and informing is a powerful new form of
collaboration.
417
00:32:41,514 --> 00:32:47,344
So just to review. We have the first three,
they’ve created this platform for multiple forms of collaboration,
418
00:32:47,379 --> 00:32:55,215
then we have the next six new forms of
collaboration: out-sourcing, off-shoring, open-sourcing,
supply-chaining, in-sourcing and informing.
419
00:32:55,250 --> 00:32:56,593
That’s nine.
420
00:32:56,628 --> 00:32:58,922
What’s the tenth? I said, “There are ten.”
421
00:32:59,841 --> 00:33:03,994
I argue in the book, that the tenth, I
simply called ‘the steroids’,
422
00:33:04,029 --> 00:33:11,010
and the steroids are wireless voice over
the Internet and file sharing.
423
00:33:11,907 --> 00:33:14,042
And what these steroids are doing
424
00:33:14,077 --> 00:33:19,289
is now turbo-charging all six of these new
form of collaboration,
425
00:33:19,892 --> 00:33:27,002
so I can now do anyone from anywhere with
any device, totally mobile.
426
00:33:27,818 --> 00:33:33,865
So, that’s the 2nd chapter, and that’s the
argument about what I considered to be the 10 forces that flattened the
world.
427
00:33:34,546 --> 00:33:39,769
Now, the third chapter and I will stop.
After these trials to tie together these base arguments.
428
00:33:40,506 --> 00:33:42,403
The third chapter is called ‘The Triple
Convergences.’
429
00:33:42,438 --> 00:33:45,856
So basically what I argue is that sometime
around the year 2000
430 00:33:45,891 --> 00:33:52,963
there were three huge convergences which
all came together to really shape the brief history of the 21st century.
431
00:33:52,998 --> 00:33:58,197
The first convergence, I would argue, is
all ten of these flatteners converged,
432
00:33:58,232 --> 00:33:59,707
right around the year 2000,
433
00:33:59,742 --> 00:34:06,634
converged into a tipping point with a
complementarity between them. All started to work together.
434
00:34:06,669 --> 00:34:11,651
So the informing helped the out-sourcing,
the out-sourcing help the off-shoring.
435
00:34:11,686 --> 00:34:19,883
The open-sourcing drove the in-sourcing.
All the complementarities between these ten flatteners started to work
together,
436 00:34:20,874 --> 00:34:22,354
and when they did,
437
00:34:23,130 --> 00:34:25,458
they created the flat world.
438
00:34:25,493 --> 00:34:27,067
What do I mean by the flat world?
439
00:34:27,102 --> 00:34:40,979
They created a global web-enabled platform
for multiple forms of sharing knowledge and work, irrespective of time,
distance, geography or even, increasingly, language.
440
00:34:41,014 --> 00:34:43,612
That’s what I mean when I say ‘the world is
flat’.
441
00:34:43,647 --> 00:34:49,882
I mean we have created a global,
web-enabled platform for multiple forms of sharing knowledge and work,
442
00:34:49,917 --> 00:34:55,898
irrespective of time, distance, geography,
and, increasingly, even language.
443
00:34:55,933 --> 00:34:58,181
And I believe that platform.
444
00:34:58,216 --> 00:35:05,667
If you think about that platform, you can
explain more things about what’s happening in the world today
445
00:35:05,702 --> 00:35:09,290
than with any other framework.
446
00:35:09,325 --> 00:35:14,154
You can explain the rise in energy, and you
can explain the rise in out-sourcing,
447
00:35:14,189 --> 00:35:18,338
or you can explain MIT’S Open Course.
448
00:35:20,618 --> 00:35:23,561
And you can explain 911 and Al-Qaeda.
449
00:35:24,226 --> 00:35:31,025
So, that first convergence is what
flattened the world by producing this new platform
450
00:35:31,060 --> 00:35:33,864
that more people than ever can plug and
play on.
451
00:35:34,560 --> 00:35:38,328
The 2nd convergence is that we’re just at
the beginning of this
452
00:35:38,363 --> 00:35:42,088
is that we all having to learn to
horizontalize ourselves,
453
00:35:42,123 --> 00:35:47,216
i.e. we’re all having to learn to adapt our
business processes, our study habits,
454
00:35:47,251 --> 00:35:51,567
our innovative approaches to this new
platform.
455
00:35:51,602 --> 00:35:57,664
Coz we’re going from a world where values
were created in vertical silos largely of command and control,
456
00:35:57,699 --> 00:36:03,873
to a world where the values would be
created increasing horizontally by who you connect and collaborate with.
457
00:36:03,908 --> 00:36:08,729
We’re just at the beginning of making all
these changes from vertical to horizontal.
458
00:36:09,346 --> 00:36:11,272
Now, the best way to understanding this is,
I think…
459
00:36:11,307 --> 00:36:16,202
Paul David, a Stanford economics had a
remarkable essay,
460
00:36:16,237 --> 00:36:18,195
I’m sure many of you have to read, on
electrification.
461
00:36:18,196 --> 00:36:23,347
And he asked a question: why was when
electricity first appeared, we didn’t get a productivity boost.
462
00:36:23,348 --> 00:36:25,412
And the answer that he’s looked into was
463
00:36:25,447 --> 00:36:29,867
because to get the actual productivity
boost from electric motors replacing steam engines,
464
00:36:29,902 --> 00:36:31,940
we had to first redesign buildings:
465
00:36:31,975 --> 00:36:36,204
from tall multistory buildings that could
accommodate big steam engines with their pulleys,
466
00:36:36,239 --> 00:36:42,134
To small and lower long buildings that with
a factory could operate small electric motors.
467
00:36:42,169 --> 00:36:45,639
And the managers had to adapt their
management practices.
468
00:36:45,674 --> 00:36:48,448
After architects adapted the way that
buildings are looked,
469
00:36:48,483 --> 00:36:52,391
and then shop floor stewards had to adapt
how they manage the shop floor.
470
00:36:52,426 --> 00:36:56,996
So there were a million different habits
and structures that had to change.
471
00:36:57,031 --> 00:37:00,339
And, boom, once they changed at a tipping
point,
472
00:37:00,374 --> 00:37:04,827
then we really got the productivity boost
from the electrification.
473
00:37:04,862 --> 00:37:14,549
I would argue we’re just at the beginning
of doing the same thing with this horizontal platform. We’re just at
the beginning of changing our habits- horizontalizing ourselves.
474
00:37:15,526 --> 00:37:19,813
I keep discovering it in a very personal
way, when I was working on the book.
475
00:37:19,848 --> 00:37:22,293
I live in Bethesda in Maryland.
476
00:37:22,328 --> 00:37:26,989
And my daughter, my oldest daughter was a
sophomore goes to a school in New Haven, Connecticut.
477
00:37:27,024 --> 00:37:29,622
I was going to visit her last March.
478
00:37:29,657 --> 00:37:36,055
It’s a complete pain in the behind to go
from the Bethesda, Maryland to New Haven, Connecticut.
479
00:37:36,090 --> 00:37:40,822
You have to drive from Bethesda to BWI
airport in Baltimore,
480
00:37:40,857 --> 00:37:44,622
take Southwest Aairline from Baltimore to
Hartford,
481
00:37:44,657 --> 00:37:47,688
and then drive from Hartford for an hour to
New Haven.
482
00:37:47,723 --> 00:37:52,233
I promised to going up last spring, taking
two bags of spring clothes for my daughter
483
00:37:54,869 --> 00:37:57,929
and I was go on Southwest.
484
00:37:57,964 --> 00:38:01,954
I know you may not have flown on Southwest,
but you may know on Southwest, you don’t get a reserved seat.
485
00:38:01,989 --> 00:38:06,096
You just get a ticket and says A, B or C.
486
00:38:06,888 --> 00:38:09,671
You do not want to be a C on Southwest
Airline.
487
00:38:09,706 --> 00:38:13,781
Especially if you bring 2 bags to your
daughter
488
00:38:13,816 --> 00:38:17,183
of the stuff that you want room above the
seat, not get stuck in the middle.
489
00:38:17,218 --> 00:38:18,906
You won’t want to be a B, you wanna be A.
490
00:38:19,562 --> 00:38:24,481
No problem, I am a hip guy, so I did the
e-ticket thing on Southwest.
491
00:38:24,516 --> 00:38:28,287
And I got to BWI airport 95 minutes before
my flight,
492
00:38:28,322 --> 00:38:30,736
coz I wanna be an A. No one’s gonna be B.
493
00:38:31,739 --> 00:38:35,561
So, I got to the Southwest Airline machine,
stuck in my visa card and out came my ticket.
494
00:38:35,596 --> 00:38:38,569
And it said B.
495
00:38:39,465 --> 00:38:46,536
I said, son of a ___!! This thing is fixed!
This is rig! This is worse than Las Vegas!
496
00:38:46,571 --> 00:38:49,039
There is no way I am a B!
497
00:38:49,074 --> 00:38:53,305
I am here 95 minutes before this flight ,
there’s no way I am a B!
498
00:38:57,305 --> 00:39:00,448
When I get my cinnabon, and stood in the
back of the B line,
499
00:39:00,483 --> 00:39:03,832
woo, I’m mad.
500
00:39:05,639 --> 00:39:09,350
Well I stood at the back of the B line for
an hour.
|
|
501
00:39:10,413 --> 00:39:11,975
然後他們開始登機了
502
00:39:12,887 --> 00:39:14,504
然後我看見了
503
00:39:14,539 --> 00:39:25,544
所有的A登機時都拿著我看起來像是家裡印表機印出來的皺紙
504
00:39:26,305 --> 00:39:36,884
原來這些傢伙都在前一天晚上12:01
在家裡下載並且印出了自己的登機牌和條碼
505
00:39:36,919 --> 00:39:41,358
我不知道的是，多謝那第一次的技術匯流
506
00:39:41,393 --> 00:39:50,653
Southwest開始了一個新的計畫，讓所有的客戶
可以在前一天晚上12:01下載並印出自己的機票
507
00:39:50,688 --> 00:39:55,238
喔，各位，我看著那樣子，我對自己說：
Friedman，你實在太落伍了
508
00:39:57,812 --> 00:40:00,941
你實在是屬於全球化2.0
509
00:40:00,976 --> 00:40:05,610
但你想想看，在全球化1.0的時候，有旅行社的存在
（譯者註：是2.0，講者口誤）
510
00:40:05,645 --> 00:40:10,497
你可以去華盛頓的Kate街，抽一個號碼牌，面前有個真人
511
00:40:10,532 --> 00:40:12,563
然後電子機票的機器出現了
512
00:40:12,598 --> 00:40:14,195
我們覺得那就很酷了
513
00:40:15,428 --> 00:40:17,098
然後，當諸位還在沈睡的時候
514
00:40:17,875 --> 00:40:25,282
Southwest讓你成為替自己處理票務的人
515
00:40:26,122 --> 00:40:29,770
抱歉喔各位，從另一個角度來看，
516
00:40:29,805 --> 00:40:33,714
Southwest航空讓你成為他們的員工
517
00:40:35,009 --> 00:40:36,820
我還必須再請各位注意
518
00:40:37,053 --> 00:40:45,070
如果你珍惜自己的時間，在前一天12:01下載機票
你等於是付錢給Southwest航空讓你當職員
519
00:40:48,130 --> 00:40:52,482
這一切就這麼發生了
520
00:40:52,738 --> 00:41:00,480
我之前所說的匯聚，讓Southwest航空可以作到這件事
521
00:41:00,515 --> 00:41:04,009
我沒做到的則是把自己水平化
522
00:41:04,044 --> 00:41:08,832
我還是垂直的跟Southwest互動
523
00:41:08,867 --> 00:41:12,385
我是那個去用電子機票機的笨蛋
524
00:41:14,089 --> 00:41:16,343
而不是在家聰明下載機票的人
525
00:41:16,378 --> 00:41:18,856
所以，下次，下次
526
00:41:18,891 --> 00:41:22,641
我會在前一天12:01上線
527
00:41:22,676 --> 00:41:28,362
我會上網替Southwest工作，
我會下載我自己的機票和條碼
528
00:41:28,921 --> 00:41:33,530
我只需要在起飛前35分鐘抵達BWI機場
529
00:41:34,401 --> 00:41:39,985
而不是95分鐘之前，我可以獲得60分鐘的生產力
530
00:41:41,345 --> 00:41:45,952
所有讓我可以獲得這60分鐘生產力的改變
531
00:41:45,987 --> 00:41:51,802
都只不過是我們改變習慣、改變商業流程的剛開始而已
532
00:41:51,837 --> 00:41:55,123
這一切都是為了我所謂的讓自己水平化
533
00:41:55,158 --> 00:41:59,194
這就是我所謂的第二次匯集，而我們正在它的剛開始
534
00:41:59,229 --> 00:42:02,821
第三次的匯集非常簡單，正當世界變得平坦時
535
00:42:02,856 --> 00:42:07,277
正當我們完成可以分配和分享各種工作與知識的平台時
536
00:42:07,312 --> 00:42:11,119
正當我們開始改變我們的商業流程時，發生了什麼事情？
537
00:42:11,154 --> 00:42:17,053
三個巨大的經濟體，印度、中國和前蘇聯開放了
538
00:42:17,798 --> 00:42:23,814
三十億人類原先處身競賽之外，現在都登上了舞台
539
00:42:23,849 --> 00:42:27,592
他們是什麼時候登場的呢？正當世界變得平坦時
540
00:42:27,627 --> 00:42:30,999
正當他們可以隨時連上網路，競爭和合作時
541
00:42:31,085 --> 00:42:36,665
對象是你我的子女，
而且是有史以來效率更高、更便宜的時候
542
00:42:36,700 --> 00:42:43,367
是的，我知道，
在那三十億中只有十分之一能夠隨時連上網路
543
00:42:43,402 --> 00:42:47,990
三十億的十分之一是多少？是三億人
544
00:42:48,025 --> 00:42:51,295
正好是美國工作人力的兩倍
545
00:42:52,371 --> 00:42:54,547
本書的看法很簡單
546
00:42:54,582 --> 00:43:01,481
這十個夷平機制、改變中的商業流程和這三億新玩家
547
00:43:01,516 --> 00:43:05,905
他們將塑造整個二十一世紀的簡短歷史
548
00:43:05,940 --> 00:43:09,587
在我結束之前，讓我指出最後一件事情
549
00:43:09,622 --> 00:43:10,946
最後一個巧合
550
00:43:11,556 --> 00:43:13,720
這個巨大的事件
551
00:43:13,755 --> 00:43:19,896
我認為這三個趨勢的匯流，隨著時間的流逝，將會改變一切
552
00:43:20,416 --> 00:43:22,743
我們從垂直變得水平
553
00:43:22,778 --> 00:43:27,777
我想得要隨著時間的過去，才會看到真正的結果
554
00:43:27,812 --> 00:43:31,323
這會是一切的轉捩點
555
00:43:31,358 --> 00:43:36,562
這將會和古騰堡、以及印刷出版一樣關鍵
556
00:43:37,736 --> 00:43:42,346
而正當我們遭遇到這個驚人的轉捩點時
557
00:43:43,633 --> 00:43:49,136
它完全被我所謂的政治完美風暴給遮蔽住了
558
00:43:49,784 --> 00:43:55,679
而這完美風暴是911事件、安隆事件和網路泡沫化
559
00:43:56,291 --> 00:44:01,392
911事件讓我們全國上從總統，下至記者全都分了心
560
00:44:01,427 --> 00:44:03,129
我們全都轉去注意別的地方了
561
00:44:03,164 --> 00:44:06,970
安隆事件讓所有的總裁在證明無辜之前都是嫌疑犯
562
00:44:07,005 --> 00:44:08,675
誰會想要替他們著想？
563
00:44:08,710 --> 00:44:14,154
我們當然更不會替他們想要如何幫忙
才能讓他們更有效率的在新世界合作與競爭
564
00:44:14,189 --> 00:44:20,514
他們會需要什麼樣的租稅減免或是不同的智財權和著作權法律
565
00:44:21,674 --> 00:44:25,649
當然，網路泡沫化讓很多人變得真的很笨
566
00:44:25,684 --> 00:44:28,098
讓他們以為全球化已經結束了
567
00:44:28,955 --> 00:44:31,200
事實上，全球化根本是被超頻在進行
568
00:44:33,089 --> 00:44:35,593
正當世界變平的時候
569
00:44:37,743 --> 00:44:40,201
我們竟然完全看錯方向
570
00:44:40,236 --> 00:44:44,071
寫作這本書的經驗真的很獨特
571
00:44:44,547 --> 00:44:48,544
當我四處訪問這些執行長、科技長、資訊長的時候
572
00:44:48,579 --> 00:44:51,784
他們就像是瘋狂科學家一樣
573
00:44:51,819 --> 00:44:55,135
他們就像是科幻電影中的瘋狂科學家一樣
574
00:44:55,170 --> 00:44:58,199
他們全都知道這秘密
575
00:44:58,234 --> 00:45:00,357
而且正緊鑼密鼓的進行
576
00:45:00,392 --> 00:45:04,127
他們全都知道在發生些什麼，我所知道的幾乎都是他們告訴我的
577
00:45:04,758 --> 00:45:07,494
他們都知道發生了什麼事情
578
00:45:07,529 --> 00:45:11,171
但卻沒人告訴孩子們！
579
00:45:13,900 --> 00:45:16,900
沒人告訴孩子真相
580
00:45:17,566 --> 00:45:19,374
我們剛結束一場選舉
581
00:45:19,409 --> 00:45:22,462
正身處在這三個機緣巧合的匯流中
582
00:45:22,973 --> 00:45:26,916
民主黨人在吵著北美貿易自由協定是不是個好主意
583
00:45:27,644 --> 00:45:34,715
而共和黨人則是把白宮首席經濟學家Greg
Mankiw的嘴巴用膠帶貼起來
584
00:45:34,750 --> 00:45:37,387
因為他說外包很合理
585
00:45:37,422 --> 00:45:41,797
而他們把他關在副總統Dick
Chenny的地下室裡
586
00:45:45,277 --> 00:45:51,325
再也不讓任何人發現他，有人最近看過這傢伙嗎？
587
00:45:54,788 --> 00:46:01,181
正當我們到了一個需要眾多改變才會抵達的關鍵轉捩點時
588
00:46:02,404 --> 00:46:04,189
卻沒人告訴孩子們
589
00:46:05,741 --> 00:46:09,764
所以，我寫這本書，是希望至少告訴兩個孩子
590
00:46:10,347 --> 00:46:11,778
Orly
與Natalie
Friedman
591
00:46:12,923 --> 00:46:15,084
他們未來長大的世界會是什麼樣子
592
00:46:16,052 --> 00:46:17,886
原先的世界，我經常聽到
593
00:46:17,921 --> 00:46:20,087
當我在Minneapolis長大時，我父母會對我說
594
00:46:20,662 --> 00:46:23,210
Tom吃完你的晚餐，印度和中國的人們正在挨餓
595
00:46:24,285 --> 00:46:26,540
我會跟我的女兒們說：女兒，做完你的作業
596
00:46:26,575 --> 00:46:30,196
因為印度和中國的人們正飢渴的要跟你搶工作
597
00:46:30,231 --> 00:46:34,036
而在一個平坦的世界中，他們是搶的到的
598
00:46:34,071 --> 00:46:37,923
已經不再有所謂的美國人的工作了
599
00:46:39,291 --> 00:46:46,919
讓我在此以HP的前總裁Carly
Fiorina在丟掉工作之前的睿智看法作結
600
00:46:48,623 --> 00:46:50,639
Carly事實上很清楚這狀況
|
501
00:39:10,413 --> 00:39:11,975
Then they called the flight
502
00:39:12,887 --> 00:39:14,504
and then I saw it.
503
00:39:14,539 --> 00:39:25,544
All the As seem to be getting on kept what
look to me like crumpled pieces of white home printer paper
504
00:39:26,305 --> 00:39:36,884
as though they had downloaded and printed
it out at home their own bar codes and boarding passes at 12:01a.m. the
night before!
505
00:39:36,919 --> 00:39:41,358
Well, what I didn’t know is, thanks to the
first convergence,
506
00:39:41,393 --> 00:39:50,653
Southwest Airline has begun a program where
all their customers could download and print out their own boarding
passes at 12:01 AM the night before.
507
00:39:50,688 --> 00:39:55,238
Oh, friends, I looked at that and I said,
“Friedman, you are an old 20th century.
508
00:39:57,812 --> 00:40:00,941
You are so globalization 2.0.”
509
00:40:00,976 --> 00:40:05,610
I mean, really, but think about it in
globalization 1.0, there was a ticket agency.
510
00:40:05,645 --> 00:40:10,497
We were supposed to go down the Kate St. in
Washington, pull a number stamp there’s a physical person standing in
front of you.
511
00:40:10,532 --> 00:40:12,563
Then it was e-ticket machine.
512
00:40:12,598 --> 00:40:14,195
We thought that was cool.
513
00:40:15,428 --> 00:40:17,098
And then while you were sleeping, while you
were sleeping,
514
00:40:17,875 --> 00:40:25,282
Southwest Airline made you the individual
your own ticket agent.
515
00:40:26,122 --> 00:40:29,770
And excuse me, another way to look at it,
516
00:40:29,805 --> 00:40:33,714
the Southwest Airline made you their
employee.
517
00:40:35,009 --> 00:40:36,820
And excuse me one more time,
518
00:40:37,053 --> 00:40:45,070
if you value your time that before 12:01
that night before, you are paying Southwest Airlines to be their
employee.
519
00:40:48,130 --> 00:40:52,482
That just happened.
520
00:40:52,738 --> 00:41:00,480
And that convergence made possible what
Southwest Airlines did.
521
00:41:00,515 --> 00:41:04,009
And what I hadn't done was horizontalize
myself.
522
00:41:04,044 --> 00:41:08,832
I was still interacting with Southwest
Airlines vertically.
523
00:41:08,867 --> 00:41:12,385
I was the moron going up to the e-ticket
machine,
524
00:41:14,089 --> 00:41:16,343
not the person downloading ticket at home.
525
00:41:16,378 --> 00:41:18,856
So next time around, next time around,
526
00:41:18,891 --> 00:41:22,641
I will go online at 12:01 that night
before.
527
00:41:22,676 --> 00:41:28,362
I will go to work for Southwest Airlines. I
will download as an individual my own boarding pass and bar code.
528
00:41:28,921 --> 00:41:33,530
And I will arrive at BWI airport 35 minutes
before the flight,
529
00:41:34,401 --> 00:41:39,985
not 95, and I will capture 60 minutes of
productivity.
530
00:41:41,345 --> 00:41:45,952
All the changes that will be involved that
me captured in those 60 minutes.
531
00:41:45,987 --> 00:41:51,802
We are just at the beginning of a million
changes in our habits and business processes around
532
00:41:51,837 --> 00:41:55,123
that I call horizontalizing ourselves.
533
00:41:55,158 --> 00:41:59,194
That is the second convergence. We say
we're just at the beginning of it.
534
00:41:59,229 --> 00:42:02,821
The third convergence is very simple. Just
when the world went flat,
535
00:42:02,856 --> 00:42:07,277
it’s only created that platform for
multiple forms of sharing knowledge and work
536
00:42:07,312 --> 00:42:11,119
just when we started to adapt our business
processes, what happens?
537
00:42:11,154 --> 00:42:17,053
Three huge economies called India, China
and the former Soviet empire opened up.
538
00:42:17,798 --> 00:42:23,814
And three billion people who are out of the
game walk on to the playing field.
539
00:42:23,849 --> 00:42:27,592
And when do they arrive? Just when the
world has been flattened.
540
00:42:27,627 --> 00:42:30,999
Just when then can plug and play, compete,
connect and collaborate
541
00:42:31,085 --> 00:42:36,665
with your kids and mine, more efficiently,
cheaply and effectively than ever before in the history of the planet.
542
00:42:36,700 --> 00:42:43,367
Yes, I know, it's ten percent of those,
only ten percent of those three billions who can really plug and play.
543
00:42:43,402 --> 00:42:47,990
Ten percent of three billion zero carry the
one. That's three hundred million people.
544
00:42:48,025 --> 00:42:51,295
That's exactly twice the size of the
American work force
545
00:42:52,371 --> 00:42:54,547
It's the simple argument of this book
546
00:42:54,582 --> 00:43:01,481
that it is the convergence of these ten
flatteners with these new business processes with the three billion new
players
547
00:43:01,516 --> 00:43:05,905
that is going to shape the brief history of
the 21st century
548
00:43:05,940 --> 00:43:09,587
Now before I end, let me just point out one
last thing,
549
00:43:09,622 --> 00:43:10,946
one last coincidence,
550
00:43:11,556 --> 00:43:13,720
this huge event, this
551
00:43:13,755 --> 00:43:19,896
what I, this triple convergence, for that I
think, over time, is going to change everything.
552
00:43:20,416 --> 00:43:22,743
We are going from vertical to horizontal.
553
00:43:22,778 --> 00:43:27,777
I think this is gonna to be seen in time.
554
00:43:27,812 --> 00:43:31,323
And it will take time to play out as the
mother of all inflection points.
555
00:43:31,358 --> 00:43:36,562
This is gonna be as big as Gutenberg and
the printing press.
556
00:43:37,736 --> 00:43:42,346
And just when we reach this incredible
inflection point,
557
00:43:43,633 --> 00:43:49,136
it gets completely disguised by what I
would call a political perfect storm.
558
00:43:49,784 --> 00:43:55,679
And that political perfect storm is 9.11,
Enron and the .com bust.
559
00:43:56,291 --> 00:44:01,392
9.11 completely distracts us, from a
country from the President on down to the reporters, Ok?
560
00:44:01,427 --> 00:44:03,129
We all focused somewhere else.
561
00:44:03,164 --> 00:44:06,970
Enron made every CEO guilty until proven
innocent.
562
00:44:07,005 --> 00:44:08,675
Who wants to talk to them?
563
00:44:08,710 --> 00:44:14,154
Little on think about what they might need
to actually compete and collaborate more effectively in this world,
564
00:44:14,189 --> 00:44:20,514
what they might need by way of taxes
incentives to different copy right and intellectual property laws?
565
00:44:21,674 --> 00:44:25,649
And of course, the .com bust made a lot of
people really silly.
566
00:44:25,684 --> 00:44:28,098
It made them think the globalization was
over.
567
00:44:28,955 --> 00:44:31,200
But in fact, it was just been turbocharged.
568
00:44:33,089 --> 00:44:35,593
So right when the world got flat,
569
00:44:37,743 --> 00:44:40,201
we are looking totally the other way.
570
00:44:40,236 --> 00:44:44,071
So doing this book was really a strange
experience
571
00:44:44,547 --> 00:44:48,544
coz I would go around and interview all the
CIOs and CTOs and CEOs
572
00:44:48,579 --> 00:44:51,784
And they are, they are like pot people.
573
00:44:51,819 --> 00:44:55,135
They are like pot people in a science
fiction movie.
574
00:44:55,170 --> 00:44:58,199
They all know the secret
575
00:44:58,234 --> 00:45:00,357
They are doing it like crazy.
576
00:45:00,392 --> 00:45:04,127
They all know what's going on. Everything I
learned, I learned from them.
577
00:45:04,758 --> 00:45:07,494
They all know what's going on
578
00:45:07,529 --> 00:45:11,171
but nobody's told the kids!
579
00:45:13,900 --> 00:45:16,900
Nobody's told the kids!
580
00:45:17,566 --> 00:45:19,374
So we just had an election
581
00:45:19,409 --> 00:45:22,462
right at the middle of this triple
convergence,
582
00:45:22,973 --> 00:45:26,916
with the Democrats were debating whether
NAFTA was a good idea,
583
00:45:27,644 --> 00:45:34,715
and the Republicans put duck tape over the
mouth of Chief White House economist Greg Mankiw
584
00:45:34,750 --> 00:45:37,387
when he said outsourcing makes a lot of
sense.
585
00:45:37,422 --> 00:45:41,797
And they stashed him in Dick Cheney's
basement,
586
00:45:45,277 --> 00:45:51,325
never to be heard from again. Has anybody
seen Greg Mankiw?
587
00:45:54,788 --> 00:46:01,181
So right when we have reached a fundamental
inflection point, that's gonna require a lot of change,
588
00:46:02,404 --> 00:46:04,189
nobody's told the kids.
589
00:46:05,741 --> 00:46:09,764
So I wrote this book to tell at least two
kids,
590
00:46:10,347 --> 00:46:11,778
Orly and Natalie Friedman:
591
00:46:12,923 --> 00:46:15,084
“What world I think they are gonna grow up
in?”
592
00:46:16,052 --> 00:46:17,886
And it's a world I said many times…
593
00:46:17,921 --> 00:46:20,087
When I was growing up in Minneapolis, my
parents said to me
594
00:46:20,662 --> 00:46:23,210
"Tom, finish your dinner. People in India
and China are starving."
595
00:46:24,285 --> 00:46:26,540
And I tell my girls, "Girls, finish your
homework,
596
00:46:26,575 --> 00:46:30,196
because people in China and India are
starving for your jobs.”
597
00:46:30,231 --> 00:46:34,036
And in a flat world, they can have them.
598
00:46:34,071 --> 00:46:37,923
There is no such thing as an American job
any more.
599
00:46:39,291 --> 00:46:46,919
So let me simply conclude with an insight
that was parted to me by Carly Fiorina form HP before she lost her job.
600
00:46:48,623 --> 00:46:50,639
Carly got all these actually
|
|
601
00:46:50,674 --> 00:46:55,898
我不知道她在商業上的表現，但她真的很聰明
602
00:46:55,933 --> 00:47:03,169
她說：Tom，你知道嗎，
所有我們過去二十年稱為IT革命，資訊科技革命的東西...
603
00:47:03,204 --> 00:47:07,831
很抱歉必須告訴你，那只是暖身而已
604
00:47:07,866 --> 00:47:17,169
那只是在這個平台上鑄造、磨練、和傳遞那些新的合作工具而已
605
00:47:17,811 --> 00:47:20,346
我們現在不過只是開始階段的尾聲而已
606
00:47:20,987 --> 00:47:22,707
你現在即將看到的是
607
00:47:22,742 --> 00:47:26,491
真正的IT革命
608
00:47:27,322 --> 00:47:33,849
所以，諸位，綁好安全帶，豎直椅背，收起你的餐桌
609
00:47:34,872 --> 00:47:37,737
因為這個世界是平坦的
610
00:47:37,772 --> 00:47:38,706
謝謝各位！
611
00:47:38,741 --> 00:47:41,025
謝謝各位！
612
00:48:05,124 --> 00:48:10,313
我知道我們還有時間提問，如果可能的話，我想請學生優先
613
00:48:10,348 --> 00:48:12,043
如果你是學生，你可以...你！
614
00:48:13,300 --> 00:48:21,223
問：像是非洲的一樣國家....
Tom：如何用這套系統來解釋？
615
00:48:21,258 --> 00:48:22,368
這是個很重要的問題
616
00:48:22,403 --> 00:48:25,935
喔，各位，剛剛的問題是我之後會不會有簽名的活動
617
00:48:26,951 --> 00:48:30,543
答案是有的，太感謝你發問了！
618
00:48:34,159 --> 00:48:39,415
非洲要在這個系統中扮演什麼角色？所有的低度發展國家又如何？
619
00:48:41,220 --> 00:48:43,434
這本書有兩個大段落，我剛剛所說的只是第一部份
620
00:48:43,469 --> 00:48:49,445
第一段落是這對美國的意義，
第二段落是這對發展中國家和地緣政治的意義
621
00:48:52,576 --> 00:48:57,614
我簡單說一下描述發展中國家的章節，我會盡快一點回答你的問題
622
00:48:57,649 --> 00:48:59,663
首先的章節名稱叫Guadalupe的聖女
623
00:49:00,416 --> 00:49:07,960
當我在作這本書的研究時，我基本上是世界各地到處飛，
並且問大家一個問題：當你發現世界是平的時候，你人在哪裡？
624
00:49:08,673 --> 00:49:11,266
人們的回答總是很有趣
625
00:49:11,301 --> 00:49:16,993
我當時在墨西哥，正在和當地中央銀行的朋友請教
626
00:49:17,028 --> 00:49:22,138
我想是在墨西哥，應該是中央銀行
627
00:49:22,173 --> 00:49:26,676
他們說：我們去年發現世界是平的
628
00:49:26,711 --> 00:49:30,629
我們的護國聖女，也就是「Virgin
of Guadalupe」
629
00:49:30,664 --> 00:49:37,549
去年的時候我們發現，所有護國聖女的雕像都是從中國運來的
630
00:49:38,750 --> 00:49:41,888
當你是個低薪資的發展中國家時
631
00:49:41,923 --> 00:49:45,384
而你的護國聖女雕像竟然是從中國進口的
632
00:49:47,192 --> 00:49:48,377
世界真的是平的
633
00:49:50,088 --> 00:49:54,057
我想要說的重點，很嚴肅的重點是
634
00:49:54,092 --> 00:49:59,424
我和埃及的一個朋友討論，提到了他們傳統的齋戒月油燈
635
00:49:59,459 --> 00:50:02,259
孩子們會拿著這些齋戒月油燈在齋戒月四處走動
636
00:50:02,738 --> 00:50:09,682
這個有幾千年傳統的油燈，現在都是從中國進口的
637
00:50:09,717 --> 00:50:12,985
裡面還有個晶片會播放最新的埃及民歌
638
00:50:14,392 --> 00:50:21,153
當世界變平的時候，你的國家平坦度與其他國家若是稍有不同
639
00:50:21,188 --> 00:50:25,937
可以把在我國邊境的墨西哥帶到千里之遙以外
640
00:50:25,972 --> 00:50:31,000
而會把數千哩以外的中國一下子帶到我國邊境來
641
00:50:31,035 --> 00:50:33,977
我在那個段落中講的內容主要是
642
00:50:34,012 --> 00:50:38,437
我認為，90年代主要有關的是重整批發
643
00:50:38,472 --> 00:50:45,620
巨觀的經濟改革，開放國內的經濟等等
644
00:50:45,655 --> 00:50:53,218
90年代主要是重整批發，
但我認為2000年代將會是以重整零售為主
645
00:50:53,763 --> 00:50:56,389
有關如何真正開始一門生意
646
00:50:56,424 --> 00:51:00,421
世界銀行有一篇叫做「在2000年做生意」的調查
647
00:51:00,456 --> 00:51:04,381
他們實際上調查了一百多個國家、五大類別
648
00:51:04,416 --> 00:51:08,095
五個問題是
649
00:51:08,130 --> 00:51:11,054
獲得執照開業要多久？
650
00:51:11,089 --> 00:51:15,262
三天還是一百八十天，要花多少錢？
651
00:51:15,297 --> 00:51:18,438
聘僱和開除人員有多容易
652
00:51:18,473 --> 00:51:20,935
募集資金有多容易
653
00:51:20,970 --> 00:51:26,919
要解決商業爭議的法律判決要多久，有多貴？
654
00:51:26,954 --> 00:51:29,031
要破產有多容易？
655
00:51:29,066 --> 00:51:34,936
也就是有多容易把不流通的資產重新活化
656
00:51:34,971 --> 00:51:38,278
它作了極為完整的分析，
如果你還沒看過，那是非常有趣的一篇報告
657
00:51:38,313 --> 00:51:41,475
他們簡單的稱呼這為「做生意」，這五個判準方式
658
00:51:41,510 --> 00:51:44,515
我會認為這是五個微觀重整
659
00:51:44,550 --> 00:51:51,073
我認為零售業有多快能夠重整，
將會是區別不同發展中國家的關鍵
660
00:51:51,108 --> 00:51:54,977
但你問的問題更深入，是有關那些貧窮的國家
661
00:51:57,555 --> 00:52:00,665
我還有另一個章節叫做「不平的世界」
662
00:52:00,700 --> 00:52:04,065
我很清楚這世界並不是平的，並不夠平
663
00:52:04,857 --> 00:52:11,721
我認為，有四種力量、社群，
如果我們不特別照顧，他們並不會出現在平坦的世界中
664
00:52:12,464 --> 00:52:15,664
甚至很有可能讓他們的世界重新回到過去
665
00:52:16,473 --> 00:52:17,784
第一個我稱做為「病重者」
666
00:52:18,607 --> 00:52:23,111
他們是被各種像是HIV等疾病所掌握的群體
667
00:52:23,146 --> 00:52:26,881
在非洲鄉下、印度鄉下、蘇俄鄉下等等
668
00:52:26,916 --> 00:52:30,945
甚至在我們國家內或多或少也有
669
00:52:30,980 --> 00:52:33,129
他們就是病的太重了
670
00:52:33,164 --> 00:52:35,361
以致於無法參與平坦的世界
671
00:52:36,980 --> 00:52:42,722
事實上，
我也提到了一些有趣的合作模式，人們合力來解決這些問題
672
00:52:42,757 --> 00:52:47,067
像我所提到的Gates基金會，
就是以大挑戰的方式來面對這些問題
673
00:52:47,102 --> 00:52:49,325
第二群體我稱之為「太過弱勢」
674
00:52:49,360 --> 00:52:54,340
同樣的，那也是在印度鄉間、中國鄉間
他們去過北京、去過上海、去過邦加羅爾
675
00:52:54,375 --> 00:53:00,580
他們看過那些財富，但他們需要協助才能參與這改變
676
00:53:02,261 --> 00:53:10,428
說到這個，我很相信管理，任何貧窮解決方案的關鍵
677
00:53:10,463 --> 00:53:11,891
就是在管理
678
00:53:12,419 --> 00:53:17,777
而且是當地的管理，
這對NGO和反全球化組織來說都是一大挑戰
679
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